ATL: ERIN - Models

[BobHarlem]

Icon 0z: At 114 hours out (to match 18z) it's left/south of 18z (21.6N was 23.1N at 18z) and a little weaker. Significantly left/south of 12z (which was 24.5N)
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Last frame, much further southwest, 12z was recurving east of Bermuda, this one looks to be going west of it. Also note system east of it. Icon weaker than the other models in general.

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS is a little south of the 18Z run through 120 hours. 2nd run in a row with a south shift.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET recurves along 63.3W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.8N 32.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2025 36 18.1N 35.6W 1008 32
0000UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.5N 39.4W 1007 29
1200UTC 13.08.2025 60 17.9N 42.4W 1007 30
0000UTC 14.08.2025 72 18.8N 45.3W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.08.2025 84 19.9N 48.8W 1007 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 96 20.5N 51.8W 1006 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 108 21.0N 54.9W 1005 40
0000UTC 16.08.2025 120 21.7N 57.2W 1004 42
1200UTC 16.08.2025 132 22.8N 60.0W 1003 46
0000UTC 17.08.2025 144 23.9N 61.7W 1003 44
1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 25.7N 63.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 28.1N 63.3W 1003 45

[IcyTundra]

The ridge is stronger on the 0Z GFS but it looks like the recurve is going to begin near 65W with the ridge weakening. It is also quite a bit weaker than the 18Z run (20+ mb weaker).

[Pelicane]

Euro and the GFS may be lining up a bit.

[lsuhurricane]

I’d say this GFS run is about to perk some interest. Ridging building in across the NE USA

[Pelicane]

I’d say this GFS run is about to perk some interest. Ridging building in across the NE USA

It's a similar setup to the 8/9 18z run that did end up impacing the NE fwiw

[BobHarlem]

Ridge trends the last 4 runs (hint new 0z is the one where it's the furthest southwest)

[Ian2401]

I’d say this GFS run is about to perk some interest. Ridging building in across the NE USA

It's a similar setup to the 8/9 18z run that did end up impacing the NE fwiw

That run had significantly stronger ridging in the NE at the same time. Looks like a trough is coming in to kick future Erin out in the last few frames of this run.

Still, a massive shift SW and highlights why even large scale synoptic patterns are untrustworthy this far out.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS, about as far West of bermuda as it was east of Bermuda at 12z. Probably about as far west as it gets this run. Does landfall in Southeastern Newfoundland.


Clips Newfoundland here:

[Hurricaneman]

The track on the 0zGFS is similar to Bill in 2009

[Beef Stew]

The escape is there, but it may come quite close to Canada on this run.

[Beef Stew]

Yep, into Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone at hour 270.

[cycloneye]

06z models.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/StatsWeather/status/1954764184534544851

[cycloneye]

The Euro AIFS now more east and no longer goes to Florida, moves east of Carolinas, the NE and reach New Foundland.

[Cachondo23]

Current GFS could be trouble for Bermuda. No OTS if it hits that tiny island.

[syfr]

The Euro AIFS now more east and no longer goes to Florida, moves east of Carolinas, the NE and reach New Foundland.

That's quite a hook from S. Fla to just east of the OB!

[Blown Away]

12z... Still likely recurve, but the cluster keeps moving farther S and W...


12z Location... W turn has begun...

[Hurricane2022]

Oh boyyy




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