NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

Cat3 very soon. Probably within the next 3-4 hours or might even be one right now!!! Officially I am saying.
Cat4 by 11pm est tonight

24-36 hours this will probably be 125-130 knts.

[Woofde]

Once again this season I wake up to an ERI-ing hurricane that’s 2 categories higher than anyone thought it would be at this time.

When SSTs are on fire, these things are bound to rapidly intensify. There's ample fuel.

[Teban54]

Hmm. Convective bursts to the east obscuring the eye?

[Travorum]

Hmm. Convective bursts to the east obscuring the eye?

https://i.postimg.cc/PJfwHLXZ/goes19-ir-08-L-202509261355.gif

Seems to be the case.

[tolakram]

No recon, not even a meso sector for Humberto. I guess random clouds over SE/SW US are more important than a major hurricane?

The lack of attention Humberto — and 94L, to a lesser extent — are getting is so odd. No posted recon plans for Humberto nor meso sectors for either yet. At least we had a low-level and an upper-level flight, but I’d expect much more recon activity than what we’re seeing.

Why? 94L is more important at the moment as it threatens landfall. These are exciting systems but recon doesn't run just to satisfy our curiosity. They will be VERY busy over the next few days, I would delay as long as possible.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

What does faster-than-expected strengthening imply for the forecast track?

[Ian2401]

No recon, not even a meso sector for Humberto. I guess random clouds over SE/SW US are more important than a major hurricane?

The lack of attention Humberto — and 94L, to a lesser extent — are getting is so odd. No posted recon plans for Humberto nor meso sectors for either yet. At least we had a low-level and an upper-level flight, but I’d expect much more recon activity than what we’re seeing.

Why? 94L is more important at the moment as it threatens landfall. These are exciting systems but recon doesn't run just to satisfy our curiosity. They will be VERY busy over the next few days, I would delay as long as possible.

I imagine there are budgetary concerns as well. Recon is not cheap and as you said they will be flying 94L very soon. Really no reason to fly a storm that will recurve out to sea, especially with a storm that will be threatening mainland U.S. at the same time. They were able to get upper level data ahead of the two systems which is awesome for injecting into the models.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

no reason to fly a storm that will recurve out to sea

My house is firmly within the cone.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, there will be recon starting on monday.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 6#p3139136

[aspen]

Ok folks, there will be recon starting on monday.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 6#p3139136

Rip, a 3 day wait and probably after peak intensity.

[ChrisH-UK]

CIMSS Tropical Intensity product has Humberto at 92 knots, near cat 3 I think it won't be long before it get called.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... ry_IR.html

[Travorum]

I think the 18z subjective dvorak fix is going to be like an hour before dvorak appearance significantly improves. Happened a few times with Gabrielle.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if a special Dvorak fix will be in and we might see a special advisory?

I'd go with 105 kt for the current intensity. It looks like a solid T5.5+ to me, and the constraints are meant to be broken.

[Travorum]

DT of 5.5 but they didn't break constraints.

A. 08L (HUMBERTO)

B. 26/1800Z

C. 22.2N

D. 57.8W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B BUT EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF
5.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET AND PT ARE 5.0 BASED
ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN T-NUMBER TO 1.0 OVER SIX HOURS. THE
SIX HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 4.8 DOES NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[Travorum]

18z best track is 95kts, 966mb

AL, 08, 2025092618, , BEST, 0, 223N, 578W, 95, 966, HU

[sasha_B]

...the decision not to break constraints being directly followed by ADT adjusted T# jumping to a very impressive 5.9. Probably that instantaneous T# is a bit exaggerated but it looks like Humberto might continue to go underestimated until later this evening.

[aspen]

18z best track is 95kts, 966mb

AL, 08, 2025092618, , BEST, 0, 223N, 578W, 95, 966, HU

Last advisory was 5 kt above the 12z BT so I think the NHC will upgrade Humberto to a major at 5pm.

[sasha_B]

The eye is clearing out again in the last few LWIR frames. If it can stay clear this time, the NHC should have ADT CI# >=5.5 by 21z, which would justify 100 kts when blended with the current 5.0 subjective estimate. Satcon estimates for Humberto are already at or above 96 knots & <965 hPa with a rising intensity trend.

[Travorum]

Raw T# hit 6.0 and the CI# hit 5.5, if it keeps climbing a blend of estimates could justify 105kts at 5pm at this rate (even though it's probably there now already).

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2025 Time : 184019 UTC
Lat : 22:23:13 N Lon : 57:59:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 958.0mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.9 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +2.0C Cloud Region Temp : -65.6C

[USTropics]

No recon, not even a meso sector for Humberto. I guess random clouds over SE/SW US are more important than a major hurricane?

The lack of attention Humberto — and 94L, to a lesser extent — are getting is so odd. No posted recon plans for Humberto nor meso sectors for either yet. At least we had a low-level and an upper-level flight, but I’d expect much more recon activity than what we’re seeing.

Why? 94L is more important at the moment as it threatens landfall. These are exciting systems but recon doesn't run just to satisfy our curiosity. They will be VERY busy over the next few days, I would delay as long as possible.

Can confirm this is exactly what NHC is doing. There is an untasked recon flight for Humberto later this evening (per my sources). They will be flying into Humberto as the system approaches Bermuda, but for now 94L remains somewhat more of a mystery (how does it interact with the ULL over the Southeast, how does shear and dry air subsidence dump from Humberto impact development, etc.). A lot of uncertainty in the models, which is why we need moar data.