NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[sasha_B]

Barely got any sleep watching this....like many on here, I'm sure. The way that Melissa seems to still be deepening on that last center pass, even as the satellite presentation has started to degrade (to "only" an instantaneous T7.7), is remarkable. Looks like she could surpass Erin or even Ragasa at this rate.

[Beef Stew]

Should have this next center fix from AF any minute now.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JamaicaObserver/status/1982796809110958390

[chaser1]

Looks like the west motion has stopped, may be doing a small cyclonic loop then start the north drift.

That sounds entirely sensible. Otherwise, I'd be pretty sure that nobody actually has "due south motion" on their Bingo card
One other thought does come to mind though. Given the already weakening steering, might well seeing an additional intensification phase where the increases deepening might be briefly negating the minimal steering conditions in place?

[kevin]

New center pass, 909.5 mb extrapolated pressure.

[zal0phus]

I just woke up to this. Genuinely can't believe what I'm seeing and I hope Kingston is spared. After all it struggled yesterday, I have to wonder what Melissa's true ceiling is now.

[zal0phus]

This season is really odd with now THREE C5s, and everything else not named Erin, Humberto, Gabrielle and Imelda ended up underwhelming, yet were likely to end with above-average ACE. Very weird.

Also that dropsonde is insane and I think is the highest gust (210 kt) measured in a TC in a dropsonde besting out Megi by 1 kt..

Very 1999 or 2007-like in that sense. The overall conditions/storm strength behavior this year were very binary. Storms that didn't have optimal conditions to strengthen greatly struggled, and storms that did massively overperformed.

Either we're in another highly active era as bad as the 20s and 30s, or this is the new standard with increasing oceanic heat. Neither scenario is comforting

[sasha_B]

909.5 hPa is a little lower than the previous minimum extrapolated pressure, but higher than the estimate on the last VDM, so perhaps intensity really has peaked. Will have to wait for dropsonde confirmation, though.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/JamaicaObserver/status/1982796809110958390

This aspect of the storm is even worse for impacts than wind speed alone. I mean, yeah, a Cat 5 or high-end Cat 4 landfall will always be devastating... But even more so when you already had days of rain saturating the ground and gusts that threaten various structures, not to mention requiring residents to stay indoors for prolonged periods of time while draining their supplies.

NHC has been advising Jamaican residents to "seek shelter now" since 1.5 days ago, and still says this despite another 24 hours until landfall:

Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter.

Now, the hurricane models from a few days earlier where a Cat 3/4 was basically parked right along the south coast of Jamaica (as opposed to some distance away like right now) would have been even more devastating... But what's happening in reality isn't much better.

[Stormgodess]

 https://x.com/JamaicaObserver/status/1982796809110958390

This aspect of the storm is even worse for impacts than wind speed alone. I mean, yeah, a Cat 5 or high-end Cat 4 landfall will always be devastating... But even more so when you already had days of rain saturating the ground and gusts that threaten various structures, not to mention requiring residents to stay indoors for prolonged periods of time while draining their supplies.

NHC has been advising Jamaican residents to "seek shelter now" since 1.5 days ago, and still says this despite another 24 hours until landfall:

Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter.

3 hrs ago I was watching a group of live cameras on the island, and the feed had the local radio station playing in the background. There were already several areas on the island that had lost power being reported.

[chaser1]

Just curious but does anyone happen to know where the Island's primary electrical infrastructure/production centers are located? I would assume relative proximity to Kingston but that's just a guess

[Teban54]

SE quad had two reports of 156 kt FL, similar to the last pass. Whether NHC goes with 140 or 145 kt at 11am EDT probably comes down to a judgment call.

[Stormgodess]

Just curious but does anyone happen to know where the Island's primary electrical infrastructure/production centers are located? I would assume relative proximity to Kingston but that's just a guess

Jamaica's electrical power stations include a mix of oil-fired plants, a growing number of gas-fired facilities, and several hydroelectric plants, operated by both the national utility, Jamaica Public Service (JPS), and independent power producers (IPPs). Major facilities include the Bogue Power Station, which is being modernized to use natural gas, the Old Harbour Power Station, and several power barges.

Key power stations
Bogue Power Station: Located in Montego Bay, this is one of Jamaica's main power plants. It is currently being repowered with a gas turbine to improve efficiency and incorporate natural gas into the energy mix, reports GE Vernova.

Old Harbour Power Station: Also known as the South Jamaica Power Centre, this facility is a large operating power plant in Old Harbour Bay.

Hunts Bay Power Plant: Located in Kingston, this is a significant power-generating facility operated by JPS, according to the Open Infrastructure Map.

Jamalco Power Plant: An IPP facility in Clarendon, with a capacity of 150 MW.

Rockfort Private Power Station: Also known as the Jamaica Private Power Company, this is another IPP facility with a 60 MW capacity.

Doctor Bird Power Plant: Operated by Jamaica Energy Partners (JEP), this includes power barges located in Old Harbour Bay.

[Jr0d]

In the following particular sonde these pressure levels are this high in geopotential feet:

925mb level is 144 ft
850mb level is 2,572 ft

At the 907mb level, a momentary wind of 242 mph was recorded.

At the surface, 162mph.

Here's the sonde:
https://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.c ... duct=sonde

Some of the of the other readings on the way down were 222mph, 220mph, 220mph, 213mph.

.............snip........
I'm not saying this is a complete list, just some of the ones I looked up.

Katrina in 2005 had one for a single reading of 269mph:
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... 3-919-234-

While the Katrina reading is off the charts, what I find more impressive about this latest dropsonde from Melissa(if it is verified) is not only it was at the 907mb pressure height vs the 866mb pressure height in Katrina, but it also detected a big column of winds over 175 kts that extended close to the surface.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nhc went with 165mph and 908 mb

[kevin]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.82 INCHES

[Travorum]

Just curious but does anyone happen to know where the Island's primary electrical infrastructure/production centers are located? I would assume relative proximity to Kingston but that's just a guess

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Jamaica

I found this list for production, It looks like by capacity most production infrastructure is located in the two parishes to the west of Kingston (St Catherine and Clarendon), with some capacity in Kingston itself. There are also a few notable production facilities up near Montego Bay. There are several wind farms and a hydroelectric plant near where Melissa is more likely to make landfall in St Elizabeth parish, they produce a little over 100MW combined.

[kevin]

With a peak intensity of 908 mb, Melissa has now passed 1924 Cuba, Ivan and Dorian. It is now tied with Maria as the 11th most intense Atlantic hurricane in the database.

[ATDoel]

Does anyone know how the NHC got to 908 mb? None of the drops were even close to that (912 mb on the last) and even extrap didn't get quite that low.

[kevin]

Does anyone know how the NHC got to 908 mb? None of the drops were even close to that (912 mb on the last) and even extrap didn't get quite that low.

The last dropsonde has 912 mb with 36 kt surface wind, which translates to 908 - 909 mb.