NATL: IMELDA - Models

[tolakram]

Why not



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=lPmMFuCWeBo

[Fancy1002]

I know it’s early in the icon run, but each run seems to have Humberto be slightly more and more to the east, I’m wondering if that will continue and prevent it from being able to take Imelda out to sea. I also wasn’t sure whether this comment belonged in this thread or Humberto’s, or both.

[tolakram]

I know it’s early in the icon run, but each run seems to have Humberto be slightly more and more to the east, I’m wondering if that will continue and prevent it from being able to take Imelda out to sea. I also wasn’t sure whether this comment belonged in this thread or Humberto’s, or both.

Model runs and discussion good for here.

[TomballEd]

I have seen maybe a couple TCs interact close enough where there is some discernable Fujiwhara effect; but never to the extent that ICON and CMC is showing.
I have a hard time swallowing this.

IIRC, a K storm absorbed an I or J storm early 2000s

You're probably describing Iris 2001 1995 absorbing Karen. A few examples of Fujiwhara in more recent years (from what I remember, in NHC basins):

• Philippe and Rina 2023. Both were weak TS, and Rina deteriorated soon after (but not due to the interaction). Philippe survived, but didn't strengthen meaningfully afterwards.
• Ileana and John 2018 (EPAC). John was already a hurricane, and absorbed Ileana.
• Hilary and Irwin 2017 (EPAC). Both storms rotated around each other as hurricanes (Cat 2 and Cat 1 respectively), but remained separate entities until dissipation. NOAA uses this as the satellite loop in explaining the Fujiwhara effect.
• Wilma and Alpha 2005. Wilma, obviously being stronger, absorbed TS Alpha past its Florida landfall.

I didn't do an exhaustive search of such examples prior to 2011. A few other pairs of storms were briefly modeled to undergo Fujiwhara at some point (Laura and Marco 2020, Jerry and Karen 2019), but they ultimately did not play out.

There also seem to be way more examples in the WPAC, but I'm not familiar enough with them.

Edit: Oops, misremembered which Iris it was. Thanks tallywx for mentioning it.

That was the one. I didn't realize it was 30 years ago.

[skillz305]

Hmmmm…. Interesting trend

[tolakram]

ICON faster now, might be a SC solution.

[ConvergenceZone]

ICON faster now, might be a SC solution.

https://i.imgur.com/tDHUl55.png

looks like the models are definitely starting to consolidate for a landfall. We will see if ICON gets closer this time around.

[tolakram]

Nope, I spoke to soon. Exact reversal of direction and heading SE at the end of the run.

[Fancy1002]

Nope, I spoke to soon. Exact reversal of direction and heading SE at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/s8zB5qI.png

I feel bad for the people in South Carolina, because if the scenario plays out to where it will head to South Carolina, they’ll probably only have a day or two of notice because of Humberto

[Hugo1989]

I don't rule out Jacksonville with the latest trend.

[Coolcruiseman]

Hmmmm…. Interesting trend


https://i.ibb.co/DHVCKG5c/IMG-2523.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/sdXwF1Sq/IMG-2534.jpg

Definitely interesting and shows how much all these variables are contribute to the ultimate endgame.

Also why I’m not letting my guard down for the FL coast from Melbourne to Jax.

[TomballEd]

ICON faster now, might be a SC solution.

https://i.imgur.com/tDHUl55.png

ICON 500 mb suggests 94L will Fujiwara about Gabrielle and will head OTS.

[MetroMike]

If the 18z ICON went out more hours it would probably feel the influence of Humberto and follow it OTS.

[floridasun]

first, we need hurricane hunter find low and put it models runs see what models runs show

[kunosoura]

first, we need hurricane hunter find low and put it models runs see what models runs show

She flew over my house in Jupiter at 5:00p today. Likely data gets into overnight models?

[Fancy1002]

Nope, I spoke to soon. Exact reversal of direction and heading SE at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/s8zB5qI.png

If Imelda does take the GFS route, what do you think the chances are of the rapidly intensifying?

[Kingarabian]

Bad look for the Carolinas here. GFS and Euro showing this stalling out.

[ronjon]

18z GFS hurricane into Myrtle Beach SC then travels to west NC mtns and settles in Atlanta. Bad set up for another tropical origraphic heavy rain event over the NC mtns.

[LarryWx]

18Z Euro: hits near NC/SC border

[MetroMike]

The 18Z Gfs has only a 997mb low at landfall. I don't know why on Tropical Tidbits models it has been losing the MB # in certain systems from time to time.