NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[ATDoel]

Am I crazy or has Melissa been moving west for two hours now? I thought it was a wobble but wobbles don’t last this long.

[CycloysisNegative]

The center appears to be west of the most western point in Jamaica now. I think landfall will be a lot closer to Savanna la Mar than Treasure Beach now.

[StormPyrate]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FzNz202m/Melissa2.jpg [/url]

Meanwhile, Melissa continues moving W of the track...

what resource is this, I have been looking for overlay on the official track for hours

[StormPyrate]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FzNz202m/Melissa2.jpg [/url]

Meanwhile, Melissa continues moving W of the track...

what resource is this, I have been looking for overlay on the official track for hours

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is definitely one of the more p*ssed off looking hurricanes I've seen in the Atlantic.

[Teban54]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

[Ivanhater]

It has been moving west of forecast all day. This may miss to the left. Less people in the core is a good thing

[Kingarabian]

Just incase no one has posted one of these yet:

Current Intensity Analysis





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 OCT 2025 Time : 204020 UTC
Lat : 16:33:35 N Lon : 78:28:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 896.4mb/164.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.8 7.8 7.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES19
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.8 degrees

[kevin]

Raw T# is on the rise again, fluctuating between 7.8 and 7.9. Purely from a Dvorak satellite perspective Melissa might be (one of) the best looking hurricanes in the Atlantic in the satellite era together with Gilbert and Wilma.

[psyclone]

I can imagine people evacuating west on Jamaica a couple days ago when the forecast was 30"+ central and east and as little as 2" on the west end. Oops

[ATDoel]

Is Melissa… pumping the ridge?!?

[aspen]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

https://i.imgur.com/B8jx8ve.gif

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

[michelinj]

I would be extremely surprised if this missed Jamaica to the west. All hurricanes wobble and just because the eye seems to shift way west or east of forecast doesn’t mean the whole storm is. A slight shift west in landfall location? Probably yes, but I don’t think by much. It’ll likely wobble back at some point soon, then west then back etc etc

[cheezyWXguy]

Are we about to get another full -80c wrap?

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1982915178221191411

I don't recall ever seeing a video inside of the eye where the walls were as concave.

[Ubuntwo]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

https://i.imgur.com/B8jx8ve.gif

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

[eastcoastFL]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FzNz202m/Melissa2.jpg [/url]

Meanwhile, Melissa continues moving W of the track...

I don't think that's going to make a huge difference in the short or long term. It's still going to devastate Jamaica and Cuba. The Bahamas are still in for quite a storm too.

[Teban54]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

https://i.imgur.com/B8jx8ve.gif

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

Could both the bolded parts have to do with sunset and the cooling tropopause?

[eastcoastFL]

This is definitely one of the more p*ssed off looking hurricanes I've seen in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/JFxYQC8.png

It's almost a perfect looking storm. Terrifying, destructive and perfect all at once. It would've been nice to track it in the open ocean instead of the islands.

[Travorum]

The NOAA recon flight is descending and just passed Jamaica, it seems to be heading in at a good time looking at IR appearance. It should be in the eye within the hour.