NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

I also wonder if Humberto will go through an ewrc soon. IR seems to give hints that it might happen soon? Plus I recall some model runs from earlier that show Humberto transitioning to an annular structure at some point with a larger eye, so it seems plausible to me.

I think it’s still dealing with a little bit of shear from the west. Outflow on that side looks like it’s running into a brick wall. Either Humberto isn’t able to fully ventilate, or some mid-level shear is impinging on it a bit, or both.

Whatever it is, it’s been happening all day. The CDO has fluctuated in smoothness a few times over the last 12 hours or so.

[cheezyWXguy]

I also wonder if Humberto will go through an ewrc soon. IR seems to give hints that it might happen soon? Plus I recall some model runs from earlier that show Humberto transitioning to an annular structure at some point with a larger eye, so it seems plausible to me.

https://i.imgur.com/tQOyDdl.png

I stand corrected pretty hard to argue with that image.

If it’s worth anything, this is what I was getting at:


The area in blue shows a warm spot outside the building eyewall convection, which looked like a hint of a double eyewall structure to me. Additionally, the red area is a convective burst overshooting the broader cdo convection in green, which is something that seems to be present in the initial stages of a cycle. That said, microwave is the source of truth on the matter, so it’s probably safe to say I’m overanalyzing.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I also wonder if Humberto will go through an ewrc soon. IR seems to give hints that it might happen soon? Plus I recall some model runs from earlier that show Humberto transitioning to an annular structure at some point with a larger eye, so it seems plausible to me.

I think it’s still dealing with a little bit of shear from the west. Outflow on that side looks like it’s running into a brick wall. Either Humberto isn’t able to fully ventilate, or some mid-level shear is impinging on it a bit, or both.

Whatever it is, it’s been happening all day. The CDO has fluctuated in smoothness a few times over the last 12 hours or so.

lol you’re talking about it like it’s a patient of yours. Definitely saving for future reference

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Here's a more recent pass, it's only a partial hit, but it looks like there might be signs of an outer band trying to wrap around the core?

[Travorum]

120kts/942mb at 0z best track, as of now every 2025 hurricane has reached 120kts:

AL, 08, 2025092700, , BEST, 0, 221N, 584W, 120, 942, HU

[Teban54]

You can see the slight shear still affecting Humberto, evident from the asymmetric cloud tops that had been occurring every now and then for the whole day. Which makes its rapid intensification even more impressive.

[Hurricane2022]

I'd go with 125 kt for the next advisory. The structure still improving and the cloud tops are even more colder. USTropics, any news about the so-called recon for Humberto?

[aspen]

I'd go with 125 kt for the next advisory. The structure still improving and the cloud tops are even more colder. USTropics, any news about the so-called recon for Humberto?

There’s a good chance the NHC will go with 125 kt at 11, since for the last few advisories, they’ve gone 5 kt above the BT.

That unassigned recon mission went into PTC9 instead.

[zzzh]

Strong convection now fully wrapped around the eye.

[USTropics]

I'd go with 125 kt for the next advisory. The structure still improving and the cloud tops are even more colder. USTropics, any news about the so-called recon for Humberto?

There’s a good chance the NHC will go with 125 kt at 11, since for the last few advisories, they’ve gone 5 kt above the BT.

That unassigned recon mission went into 94L instead.

The unassigned recon mission was definitely designated for Humberto this morning (directly from one of the members on the flight), but was reassigned later in the afternoon. It's honestly a good call though given the dynamic models uncertainty, this is not an easy forecast given the ULL and proximity to Humberto. There's a fine line between a stall over the southeast or a stall off the coast.

[Travorum]

So this is an instantaneous T7.0

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 130 kt on the advisory intensity, and forecast a cat 5 peak.

[Hurricane2022]

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RAPID STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 58.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

It's a good estimate in my opinion. They're also forecasting a C5 peak.

[weeniepatrol]

24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 61.6W 140 KT 160 MPH

[Kingarabian]

So this is an instantaneous T7.0

https://i.imgur.com/7SniSUg.png

Thickness on the W and B rings is iffy, would go between T6.0 and T6.5 here.

[Hurricane2022]

Fun fact: all the tropical cyclones in the Atlantic that have been called "Humberto" have become hurricanes. The weakest Humberto was the one in 2007, with a peak intensity of around 80 kt/985 mb, while the strongest Humberto is the one we're tracking now, at ~125 kt/940 mb and with the possibility of further intensification.

[Travorum]

So this is an instantaneous T7.0

https://i.imgur.com/7SniSUg.png

Thickness on the W and B rings is iffy, would go between T6.0 and T6.5 here.

The thickness on the weakest side (west and south) looked at least half a degree of latitude to me but you are right that the thickness is questionable.

[Ptarmigan]

Every hurricane so far this season has been a major hurricane. That is an amazing feat in itself.

I am not surprised that Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified.

[Hurricane2022]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/FlynnJansenWX/status/1971773238071251232