NATL: MELISSA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ddd19bee7f78c8010517666b41521b6753434be15e524d20a0ade6583ad88750.png

Blp, are those all possible ensemble runs for one time period or do they represent HCAA tracks from different periods. Or maybe a better question is what models are part of the HCAA consensus?

It's tracks from older time periods to the most current.

[caneseddy]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ddd19bee7f78c8010517666b41521b6753434be15e524d20a0ade6583ad88750.png

Blp, are those all possible ensemble runs for one time period or do they represent HCAA tracks from different periods. Or maybe a better question is what models are part of the HCAA consensus?

It's tracks from older time periods to the most current.

I'm assuming the red line would be the most current based on trends?

[SFLcane]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ddd19bee7f78c8010517666b41521b6753434be15e524d20a0ade6583ad88750.png

Should head NE-ENE from that point across Cuba. Nothing is ever certain but I think the door is pretty much closed for anything trying to sneak through yucatan channel which could potentially threaten SFL.

[SFLcane]

Blp, are those all possible ensemble runs for one time period or do they represent HCAA tracks from different periods. Or maybe a better question is what models are part of the HCAA consensus?

It's tracks from older time periods to the most current.

I'm assuming the red line would be the most current based on trends?

That is correct.

[AutoPenalti]

Blp, are those all possible ensemble runs for one time period or do they represent HCAA tracks from different periods. Or maybe a better question is what models are part of the HCAA consensus?

It's tracks from older time periods to the most current.

I'm assuming the red line would be the most current based on trends?

Correct. It filters through bias from in-house and operational models and uses the HWRF as the driving dynamical model TC Intensity Guidance

[BobHarlem]

12z icon again wrecks Jamaica (Right front quad along the southern part of the island, including Kingston)

[xironman]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ddd19bee7f78c8010517666b41521b6753434be15e524d20a0ade6583ad88750.png

Should head NE-ENE from that point across Cuba. Nothing is ever certain but I think the door is pretty much closed for anything trying to sneak through yucatan channel which could potentially threaten SFL.

The 500mb pattern at that time is not set in stone.

[AutoPenalti]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ddd19bee7f78c8010517666b41521b6753434be15e524d20a0ade6583ad88750.png

Should head NE-ENE from that point across Cuba. Nothing is ever certain but I think the door is pretty much closed for anything trying to sneak through yucatan channel which could potentially threaten SFL.

Should but the synoptic set up is not set in stone, if anything recent Euro trends indicate the trough retrograding further north. The longer this stays south and west, the more time it will take for models to get a pattern set up.

[SFLcane]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ddd19bee7f78c8010517666b41521b6753434be15e524d20a0ade6583ad88750.png

Should head NE-ENE from that point across Cuba. Nothing is ever certain but I think the door is pretty much closed for anything trying to sneak through yucatan channel which could potentially threaten SFL.

The 500mb pattern at that time is not set in stone.

The 500mb pattern is pretty much in our favor across the peninsula hence not 1 ensemble brings over the state. Never like to make bold statements with a storm to our south in oct but unless something changes i feel pretty good saying we should be good here.

[Fancy1002]

Should head NE-ENE from that point across Cuba. Nothing is ever certain but I think the door is pretty much closed for anything trying to sneak through yucatan channel which could potentially threaten SFL.

The 500mb pattern at that time is not set in stone.

The 500mb pattern is pretty much in our favor across the peninsula hence not 1 ensemble brings over the state. Never like to make bold statements with a storm to our south in oct but unless something changes i feel pretty good saying we should be good here.

https://i.postimg.cc/6Qk1x3Kj/vvvv.png

https://i.postimg.cc/52Rfvw5F/vvv.png

I see a few of those ensemble heading up to the northeast.

[SFLcane]

The 500mb pattern at that time is not set in stone.

The 500mb pattern is pretty much in our favor across the peninsula hence not 1 ensemble brings over the state. Never like to make bold statements with a storm to our south in oct but unless something changes i feel pretty good saying we should be good here.

https://i.postimg.cc/6Qk1x3Kj/vvvv.png

https://i.postimg.cc/52Rfvw5F/vvv.png

I see a few of those ensemble heading up to the northeast.

A handful not very likely at all.

[boca]

I wouldn’t rule out Florida yet the further west Melissa travels the more in play Florida is before the NE turn and the set up is changing every day it seems like.

[CrazyC83]

HAFS simulated IR seems to have glitched, even in the Western Caribbean the tropopause isn't this high.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/981328327199559760/1430535925313568902/hafsb_satIR_13L_43.png?ex=68fa21e6&is=68f8d066&hm=0a9b11bb24195cbf4caa078461abff9d72461a4875050da6b22aa787b68cb495&

Never say never. Wilma nearly got to such.

[BobHarlem]

I wouldn’t rule out Florida yet the further west Melissa travels the more in play Florida is before the NE turn and the set up is changing every day it seems like.

Extremely unlikely looking at the pwat and continental US frontal setup It would have to get to the northern tip of the Yucatan to do that. It's more likely to plough into Central America than get to florida. Cayman islands, Cuba/Bahamas perhaps.

[Travorum]

The 06z experimental HAFS-B run was... something to say the least. Basically an Atlantic Patricia:

[SFLcane]

I wouldn’t rule out Florida yet the further west Melissa travels the more in play Florida is before the NE turn and the set up is changing every day it seems like.

Extremely unlikely looking at the pwat and continental US frontal setup It would have to get to the northern tip of the Yucatan to do that. It's more likely to plough into Central America than get to florida. Cayman islands, Cuba/Bahamas perhaps.

Shear is howling across the gulf and florida with the jetstream now drapped accross the area.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS continues its out to lunch solution with a NE turn basically starting now.

[Travorum]

The NOAA G-IV is doing a synoptic training mission around Melissa right now, hopefully some dropsonde data can be collected to feed into the models.

[Fancy1002]

Gotta give it to both the GFS and the UKMET for their consistency, even if they end up being dead wrong.

[LarryWx]

Gotta give it to both the GFS and the UKMET for their consistency, even if they end up being dead wrong.

Speaking of the UKMET, the 12Z has a similar path with it still weak although it has been ending up slightly further N at the ends of the last few runs. Earlier runs were going into Nicaragua and falling apart. Then they were going toward the Nic/Hond border and/or skimming the N coast of Hond. This latest one moves WNW toward the end of the run into the open southern Gulf of Honduras and stalls without falling apart and appears to be starting to strengthen:

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.10.2025 0 14.2N 73.9W 1004 35
0000UTC 23.10.2025 12 15.5N 74.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 23.10.2025 24 15.5N 75.8W 1004 36
0000UTC 24.10.2025 36 15.7N 76.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 24.10.2025 48 15.6N 76.2W 1004 26
0000UTC 25.10.2025 60 15.6N 76.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 25.10.2025 72 15.8N 77.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 26.10.2025 84 15.6N 78.3W 1004 27
1200UTC 26.10.2025 96 15.7N 79.7W 1004 25
0000UTC 27.10.2025 108 15.6N 81.4W 1003 22
1200UTC 27.10.2025 120 15.2N 82.6W 1003 24
0000UTC 28.10.2025 132 15.5N 83.7W 1004 20
1200UTC 28.10.2025 144 16.3N 84.8W 1005 23
0000UTC 29.10.2025 156 16.4N 86.3W 1005 27
1200UTC 29.10.2025 168 16.6N 86.5W 1004 34