ATL: ERIN - Models

[GCANE]

Euro showing Erin being stacked at 60W with a strong anti-cyclone.
GFS not so much.
Need to see how this evolves with future model runs.

[chris_fit]

06Z EURO AI slightly slower and/or S/W of the 00Z run. But not by much.

[aspen]

HAFS-A and B are very unenthusiastic with Erin this cycle and show almost no strengthening by 96 hrs. HAFS-A looks like it degenerates on its way to the islands. Probably an overcorrection towards Erin’s current anemic, SAL-plagued structure.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1955237580288475613

[kevin]

Partially because they're significantly weaker, 06z HAFS-A and HAFS-B are very far south. HAFS-A ends at 19.5N/66.0W (990mb, 44 kt) and HAFS-B ends at 19.2W/64.3W (977mb, 56 kt). These tracks could result in a US impact down the line and still leave plenty of time for RI before landfall. On the other hand, GFS operational seems to be same as 00z or even farther east. All in all, still very uncertain at the moment.

[DunedinDave]

Definitely could see a Dorian-like track here with maybe not the stalling out over the Bahamas. But the left trends will be enough to get the east coast’s heart rate up….but I still think in the end history will win and this thing does the recurve, albeit in that “too close for comfort” zone.

[caneseddy]

From the 11 am advisory:

The trend has been for a weaker Erin in the short term and possibly
a stronger ridge, and a number of track models, including HAFS-A and
-B, HWRF, the European, HCCA, and the Google Deep Mind, have shifted
south and west for much of the 5-day forecast. The NHC forecast has
shifted in that direction accordingly, and it should be noted that a
significant number of deterministic models and ensemble members
still lie even farther south.

Puerto Rico now within the cone

[chris_fit]

12z ICON coming in pretty much like the 00z Track-wise Through 138hrs, but much weaker. 994mb vs 963mb

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like Gloria in 1985, didn’t do much until about 50w and really went to town after that, seems like a similar future for this one minus the Carolinas and New York/New England

[LarryWx]

12z ICON coming in pretty much like the 00z Track-wise Through 138hrs, but much weaker. 994mb vs 963mb

I have the 12Z Icon 168 hr 150 miles NNE of that potentially ominous 0Z Icon 180 hr map. Has less ridging than the 0Z and is moving NW to NNW instead of NW to WNW.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS ahout 13mb weaker compared to previous runs through hour 54.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS coming in weaker and a tick south.

[TampaWxLurker]

Slower and lower through 96 hours on 12z GFS. And a pinch weaker, too.

[AutoPenalti]

[TampaWxLurker]

Getting a bad feeling if the weakening/southerly trend continues, it may be too weak and/or slow to take advantage of the opening in the ridge.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: dips down to 16.4N vs 17.0N on 0Z; recurves at 68.7W vs 66.5W on 0Z; so still a safe recurve for Conus:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 35.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2025 0 17.3N 35.4W 1008 31
0000UTC 13.08.2025 12 16.7N 39.3W 1008 29
1200UTC 13.08.2025 24 16.4N 42.2W 1008 27
0000UTC 14.08.2025 36 16.7N 45.0W 1007 29
1200UTC 14.08.2025 48 17.6N 48.5W 1008 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 60 18.6N 51.8W 1008 31
1200UTC 15.08.2025 72 19.8N 55.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 16.08.2025 84 20.7N 58.6W 1005 32
1200UTC 16.08.2025 96 21.6N 61.6W 1001 37
0000UTC 17.08.2025 108 22.3N 64.2W 998 44
1200UTC 17.08.2025 120 23.3N 66.3W 998 48
0000UTC 18.08.2025 132 24.8N 67.7W 996 42
1200UTC 18.08.2025 144 26.9N 68.6W 992 52
0000UTC 19.08.2025 156 28.8N 68.7W 988 48
1200UTC 19.08.2025 168 30.7N 68.0W 980 58

[Stratton23]

Global models are still way too aggressive with strengthening this, as a result GFS recurves too soon, its really not looking healthy with just a naked swirl due to ingesting a lot of dry air , im expecting a tropical storm at most on an approach to the northern leeward islands, HAFS model suite looks like the most likely scenario

[chris_fit]

12z GFS stuck at ~100 hours?

[Stratton23]

Global models are still way too aggressive with strengthening this beofre it reaches the northern leeward islands, as a result GFS recurves too soon, its really not looking healthy with just a naked swirl due to ingesting a lot of dry air , im expecting a tropical storm at most on an approach to the northern leeward islands, HAFS model suite looks like the most likely scenario

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge weaker on the GFS, this is going to move north pretty soon.