NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/g2PfksCx/IMG-3592.jpg [/url]

00z 21.3/75.6… Track had AL9 making 75.8 at 5pm tomorrow… Might be at 75.8 at 11 tonight!

what that mean for track?

[BobHarlem]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/g2PfksCx/IMG-3592.jpg [/url]

00z 21.3/75.6… Track had AL9 making 75.8 at 5pm tomorrow… Might be at 75.8 at 11 tonight!

Nope even further west, 76W. (11pm is out now)

[SouthFLTropics]

Further west to 76.0 West but also a change in direction as of the 11:00 PM advisory. Now moving NW at 9MPH.

[cycloneye]

Part of the 11 PM discussion related to the NOAA plane this evening and location more west than anticipated.

Many thanks to the crew of a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
which has been flying a surveillance mission in the disturbance this
evening. Dropsonde data from this flight, as well as surface
observations from Cuba, suggest that the system is still a trough
of low pressure, and the trough axis is a little farther west than
previously estimated

[OuterBanker]

Dennis the menace is coming to mind.

I served as Red Cross rep in the Dare County EOC in 1999. Dennis got to the NC coast turned east off the coast and looped back. So the loop back to the coast does happen.

I did cause a logistical nightmare here. An eight foot deep channel on Hatteras Island split the island.

So far I see no consensus of any model yet. Almost Charleston then out to sea (GFS 18z), Almost Charleston the stalling of SC (18Z Euro), almost Charleston out to sea loop back to Wilmington (CMC 12z), almost Charleston out to sea loop into Hatteras. Loops everywhere.

[Hurricane Mike]

11:30pm Video Update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2_WR4dhpWU

[chaser1]

A new tower is blowing up directly over what I believe is the developing COC at 21.9N and 75.0W. I don't believe that there has been any actual forward motion for a number of hours now but that may change the moment a true center begins to take shape.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS now has it over the Gulf Stream running along the Florida coast.
Then Out to Sea, no US landfall.
Models appear to be converging on this scenario.
Bahamas could get the brunt of this.

[GCANE]

Seeing some convection firing in the GOM at the east end of the tail of the front.
This may erode the front somewhat and could put a kink in the models' track.
Forecast may change on a dime.
I think everyone should stay vigilant from south Florida to North Carolina.
IMHO, recon should be sampling the front as well.

[skillz305]

Indeed getting very interesting over here on east coast FL for some effects of the storm.

[GCANE]

Constant High-Altitude Recon Missions for the past few days.
This is unprecedented.
Something is up.

[cycloneye]

[syfr]

Interesting right angle turn east that the NHC 8AM cone shows.

[Travorum]

Looking at recon there there seems to be a very broad circulation centered roughly south of ragged island:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd say this is very close to TD status, if not already there.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Constant High-Altitude Recon Missions for the past few days.
This is unprecedented.
Something is up.

Not surprised, this is a pretty complicated steering situation, so they want all the data they can. Storms going parallel to Florida are hard to forecast to begin with, but one being steered by another major hurricane is doubly so.

[BobHarlem]

Scanning the ensemble members tThe faster/further north this forms the more likely for landfall, if it's slower or forms further south the more likely the ots scenarios are.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2025092712, , BEST, 0, 220N, 760W, 30, 1005, DB

[caneman]

Scanning the ensemble members tThe faster/further north this forms the more likely for landfall, if it's slower or forms further south the more likely the ots scenarios are.

But..... I think it also might get much closer to Florida.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at where the vorticity is located, It is a bit east of where the 8am fix is located