NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[cycloneye]

Possible revision for the TCR.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983305086211371411

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/ameliaUrquhart_/status/1983345085380210963

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/StormHQwx/status/1983349251058045273

[edu2703]

I'm watching the footage of the damage in Black River. Total destruction. The entire town is basically gone.

The damage is definitely consistent with a C5 hurricane.

[bob rulz]

 https://x.com/ameliaUrquhart_/status/1983345085380210963

Its satellite presentation could fool me, it certainly looks like it's rapidly reorganizing. Though looks can be deceiving. I don't think we can know for sure until a plane gets in there again.

What happened to the plane that sampled the storm right after emerging from the coast?

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the AF plane is going in now

[Beef Stew]

I'm watching the footage of the damage in Black River. Total destruction. The entire town is basically gone.

The damage is definitely consistent with a C5 hurricane.

Do you have a link you could share?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

It also seems to be moving more northeast - that would give it a bit more time over water.

Well east after being west of the forecast its entire life. Watching this closely here in Bermuda.

https://i.ibb.co/xKgGVM7c/tccapture.gif

What site is this? I don’t have one that plots the forecast points as an overlay.

[edu2703]

I'm watching the footage of the damage in Black River. Total destruction. The entire town is basically gone.

The damage is definitely consistent with a C5 hurricane.

Do you have a link you could share?

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983342092048076821



 https://x.com/DiggleMassyca/status/1983346327368138982







 https://x.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1983334908518117876

[Michele B]

The level of intensity that Jamaica took from Melissa is surprising. Are "perfect" storms like Melissa, particularly vulnerable to severe attenuation , in comparison to your normal run of the mill big blob Cat III or the like?

Generally, yes. The way I like to think of it is this: which is going to be an easier repair job if you crash it- a 2005 Ford F150 or a brand new Ferrari?

A category 5, especially an upper echelon one like Melissa, is a highly refined, highly sensitive heat engine. It performs at the highest standards as a cyclone can, but any little perturbation can quickly spiral and cause a huge disruption (think Delta in 2020) that can be difficult to recover from. A run of the mill cat 3, as you mentioned- or certainly a lesser storm- might be more resilient to having its circulation disrupted by land, shear, etc because it doesn’t have to be as efficient, as perfect by nature- that’s why it’s not a C4 or 5.

If circulation can persist, a former category 5 can reintensify at a good pace if conditions are favorable, but after traversing significant elevation it’s never a seamless process.

Great points. Also add the fact that the sea temps are nowhere as warm as they were on the south side of Jamaica. Not as much fuel for Melissa.

[Ptarmigan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4496/hGGbpm.gif

I would not be surprised if Melissa was still intensifying upon landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

The level of intensity that Jamaica took from Melissa is surprising. Are "perfect" storms like Melissa, particularly vulnerable to severe attenuation , in comparison to your normal run of the mill big blob Cat III or the like?

Generally, yes. The way I like to think of it is this: which is going to be an easier repair job if you crash it- a 2005 Ford F150 or a brand new Ferrari?

A category 5, especially an upper echelon one like Melissa, is a highly refined, highly sensitive heat engine. It performs at the highest standards as a cyclone can, but any little perturbation can quickly spiral and cause a huge disruption (think Delta in 2020) that can be difficult to recover from. A run of the mill cat 3, as you mentioned- or certainly a lesser storm- might be more resilient to having its circulation disrupted by land, shear, etc because it doesn’t have to be as efficient, as perfect by nature- that’s why it’s not a C4 or 5.

If circulation can persist, a former category 5 can reintensify at a good pace if conditions are favorable, but after traversing significant elevation it’s never a seamless process.

Great points. Also add the fact that the sea temps are nowhere as warm as they were on the south side of Jamaica. Not as much fuel for Melissa.

I dunno, the original core still seems to be intact and it’s getting its act together pretty quickly. Obviously won’t reach the same peak it did before, but it doesn’t seem to care if the waters it’s traversing now aren’t as optimal as they were south of Jamaica.

[aspen]

I’m surprised its core made it over Jamaica somewhat unscathed. Good thing it’s moving quickly and has less than 10 hours until landfall, or else we could’ve been looking at another 130+ kt strike.

[Travorum]

Obviously Melissa has countless other more notable records that have been mentioned today, but here's another one: Melissa has the 8th longest duration as a Category 5 (among the 45 known Cat 5s), spending 1 day 11 hours at that intensity.

Many Cat 5s don't last long before weakening, often due to EWRCs. The two other Cat 5s this year only stayed there for 12 hours or less. Even many impressive Cat 5s, like Milton, Dorian and Maria, lasted a few hours less than Melissa.

The 7 storms that lasted longer than Melissa as Cat 5s are: Cuba 1932, Allen, Irma, Ivan, David, Mitch, and Isabel.

This is especially impressive considering that Melissa had the structural qualities and background conditions necessary to continue on at Category 5 intensity for quite a bit more time had its course not taken it over land. There are so many meteorologically impressive aspects of Melissa but the structural resilience of the storm—with its repeated eyewall mergers in lieu of classical EWRCs—stands out as one of its truly unique characteristics.

[Teban54]

[Category5Kaiju]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/5aW8g2G.gif

I think it's well within reason to say that a Category 4 strike on Cuba is very possible.

[dukeblue219]

105kt FL on the S side of the eyewall. No extrapolated pressure readings.

[CrazyC83]

That would be T6.5 on Dvorak with the current appearance?

We'll see if the winds eventually catch up.

[edu2703]

Back to Cat 4 per NHC

11:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 28
Location: 19.3°N 76.6°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[galaxy401]

Interesting, there weren't Cat 4 winds found yet by recon. Probably due to the weaker side being examined and Melissa regaining organization.