NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[chaser1]

The 8PM NHC update increased the lowest SLP from 1000 mb to 1002 mb.

We'll probably see another 2-4 MB rise before she gets her act together. If that swirl is/was the LLC then frankly it's not far from becoming ill-defined. Sure, plenty of west winds appear evident but I was beginning to question whether they still existed around a cohesive surface feature or primarily above the surface.

The lowest SLP on record I could find for a center landfalling on Jamaica is 958 mb (MH Charlie of 1951) followed by 960 mb for MH Gilbert. So, the 18Z Euro’s 943 mb would shatter the current record.

Do you or does anyone else know if there has ever been a pressure recorded lower than 958 mb there? If so, when and do you have a link?

.

I've not heard any reported SLP below 960mb for Jamaica but had not realized 958mb was recorded during Hurricane Charlie in '51.

[chaser1]

Unless the LLC has once again redeveloped under the convection, then I've got to seriously question whether it still has a well defined surface circulation. I'm sure NHC would prefer to maintain continuity given the expected ramp up in strength a few days from now.

[TomballEd]

Recon and satellite showing a near 2* separation between the LLC and MLC still gives me some hope Melissa poofs. I know that is not the most likely possibility but it would be the happiest.

[Ubuntwo]

Unless the LLC has once again redeveloped under the convection, then I've got to seriously question whether it still has a well defined surface circulation. I'm sure NHC would prefer to maintain continuity given the expected ramp up in strength a few days from now.

While it certainly looks rough on shortwave IR, recon confirms there is still a loose circ at ~ 14.4N, 74.7W.

[WaveBreaking]

All hurricane models show Melissa forming a new LLC under a blob of convection in about a day and then restrengthening btw, so I feel like even though it will probably look dead tomorrow, it'll most likely only be a pulse-down phase (think Gabrielle from earlier this year).

[cycloneye]

Interesting analysis here.

 https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1981191686496665956

[cycloneye]

A little promotion post. Those who are interested on participating in the poll about how strong will Melissa get, go to that thread. The poll will close on friday at 11:24 PM EDT.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7#p3143117

[CrazyC83]

Recon and satellite showing a near 2* separation between the LLC and MLC still gives me some hope Melissa poofs. I know that is not the most likely possibility but it would be the happiest.

Models suggest the MLC will become the dominant center eventually?

[CrazyC83]

Unless the LLC has once again redeveloped under the convection, then I've got to seriously question whether it still has a well defined surface circulation. I'm sure NHC would prefer to maintain continuity given the expected ramp up in strength a few days from now.

I think NHC would keep advisories going, and in the post-analysis consider a non-TC phase (i.e., wave, disturbance).

[AxaltaRacing24]

Was looking at Melissa and struggling to even seek out a well defined LLC, and I see that people here were saying the same. It probably will open up into a wave briefly a few times but we all know what is eventually going to happen.

[CrazyC83]

Was looking at Melissa and struggling to even seek out a well defined LLC, and I see that people here were saying the same. It probably will open up into a wave briefly a few times but we all know what is eventually going to happen.

Gabrielle behaved similarly at first, and in fact I would argue it had a broken track (and a period of remnant low stage) before it took off.

[Ubuntwo]

Was looking at Melissa and struggling to even seek out a well defined LLC, and I see that people here were saying the same. It probably will open up into a wave briefly a few times but we all know what is eventually going to happen.

I don't think we know anything about this storm's fate The intense solutions are far from a lock.

[chaser1]

Would someone else kindly take a brief look at the night-time Shortwave IR floater for Melissa, and focus in around 16.0N & 76.5W? Call me crazy but if that's Melissa's LLC, then this completely redefines the definition of "tilted center"

[CrazyC83]

Would someone else kindly take a brief look at the night-time Shortwave IR floater for Melissa, and focus in around 16.0N & 76.5W? Call me crazy but if that's Melissa's LLC, then this completely redefines the definition of "tilted center"

It is clearly tilted greatly. That does seem to be at least a remnant LLC, if not still the actual LLC.

[chaser1]

On a very serious note - i'm in awe! Melissa looks "gutted". What a rapid deconstruction. I cant wait to see the visual satellite loop because I fail to see any semblance of an organized surface circulation; meanwhile the MLC appears to be dragging towards the east or NE? Given its present state (which I would be hard pressed to even define), I'm now thinking that the CMC model solution may no longer be a viable track solution.

[aspen]

On a very serious note - i'm in awe! Melissa looks "gutted". What a rapid deconstruction. I cant wait to see the visual satellite loop because I fail to see any semblance of an organized surface circulation; meanwhile the MLC appears to be dragging towards the east or NE? Given its present state (which I would be hard pressed to even define), I'm now thinking that the CMC model solution may no longer be a viable track solution.

The GFS is still insistent on that MLC taking over and the storm going N to NE starting today. Maybe it’s on to something.

[Flwxguy86]

I've personally got a real concern that the Gulf is being written off too prematurely, I know nobody is saying its completely off the table, but I think the real threat is there. It's still tilted and weak and will likely stay that way till Saturday night/Sunday morning. The models are all over the place. If that trough over Southern Georgia/Northern Florida is as strong as some models do show it in 120H, I would think from that position it only has 2 options, keep going west into central america or Northeast towards Florida. I just am not ready to buy into it crossing over into the atlantic yet. I can see why the models think that, but if we are gonna see rapid intensification around the cayman islands area..how does it not get into the gulf even if that means only clipping southern Florida. I am worried that this could be like michael where you walk up on sunday to the gulf suddenly being in play as the news media pretends it won't happen now because the models don't show it, but I think the pattern supports that. Obviously not 100% guarantee but a possibility that isn't being talked about enough, but I understand it, why scare the hell out of people a week out, but to pretend its almost a zero sum chance just erodes people's trust in the NHC and forecasting. I can see the talk of "weather modification" happening all over social media if that were to happen. I do know this is all dependent on it continuing WNW like it has so far and that through over southern georgia/Northern Florida where its forecasted now, just saying crazier things have happened..

[GCANE]

Can clearly see the front coming down on Water Vapor imagery.
Appears convection coming off of Honduras is attempting to erode the front.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

If it continues to erode, them Melissa has a clear path to the Western Caribbean.
HAFS-A currently has 891mb SW of Jamaica.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 13L_41.png

[TomballEd]

Is the new blob to the NW of the main blob the LLC developing convection?

[Flwxguy86]

Is the new blob to the NW of the main blob the LLC developing convection?

https://i.imgur.com/LuPg5cR.gif

I'm not great at analyzing these, but the circulation that I can see seems to still be to the south and east of the NW part your talking about. it's hard to tell from this view though. it's still not aligned and if that new blob is an LLC, I would believe the MLC and LLC are still pretty far apart.