NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

Kind of surprising given that all one should need is a car battery and the Starlink

He usually stays off the grid for a couple of days after landfall. There is always a big clamor about it, then he reemerges.

[GCANE]

One thing that stands out is Melissa was always under a shear gradient.
The position of the shear vector is likely to have a significant role in inducing RI.

Induced helicity maybe a result of that shear gradient as well and could have had a significant effect on the fact there was no EWRC.
The paper cited in the tweet by Eric goes into depth of why that may be.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1983323178899517489

[eastcoastFL]

Are there not hourly updates because it's over Cuba and we can't fly or obtain ground obs right now?

[eastcoastFL]

One thing that stands out is Melissa was always under a shear gradient.
The position of the shear vector is likely to have a significant role in inducing RI.

Induced helicity maybe a result of that shear gradient as well and could have had a significant effect on the fact there was no EWRC.
The paper cited in the tweet by Eric goes into depth of why that may be.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1983323178899517489

That was interesting to me as well. Instead of classic EWRC's we saw a few suspected eyewall melds that we haven't really seen in previous storms.

[eastcoastFL]

She's looking pretty rough right now as she emerges over the Atlantic. Cuba might have taken a good chunk out of her.

[cycloneye]

She's looking pretty rough right now as she emerges over the Atlantic. Cuba might have taken a good chunk out of her.

You are in the drivers seat in the S2K 2025 poll (#47 on the list) as you are very close to the actual numbers. Let's see, if no more storms form in November then we will officially congratulate you for the close call in the poll thread when the season ends

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124646

[Tireman4]

She's looking pretty rough right now as she emerges over the Atlantic. Cuba might have taken a good chunk out of her.

You are in the drivers seat in the S2K 2025 poll (#47 on the list) as you are very close to the actual numbers. Let's see, if no more storms form in November then we will officially congratulate you for the close call in the poll thread when the season ends

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124646

I came in last Louis, do I get anything? LOL

[cycloneye]

For the members who live in Bermuda: The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.

[toad strangler]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

Kind of surprising given that all one should need is a car battery and the Starlink

He usually stays off the grid for a couple of days after landfall. There is always a big clamor about it, then he reemerges.

Yep, 99.99% chance this is the standard ICyclone blackout after a storm. He's probably assisting the locals around him. Don't forget, he lived near Hollywood for many years! He was a marketing pro first before a chaser

[GCANE]

Drop
988mb
63knots

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 9-1525.png

[GCANE]

Drop
988mb
63knots

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 9-1525.png

Eye Drop
977mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 9-1541.png

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1983549319962579455

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WeatherMonitors/status/1983535433960374554

[Kazmit]

Finally generating convection again. Cuba seemed to temporarily zombify Melissa.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/foxweather/status/1983542494978564283

[Teban54]

Melissa seems to be holding steady in pressure after re-emerging from Cuba. The three eye drops in the past 3 hours had: 976/14, 977/24, and 976/24.

That said, Melissa may be working on structural reorganization. The first pass (NOAA) reported no eyewall as per VDM, but the second pass, a bit more than an hour ago, reported a 40 nm eye open E-SE.

Cuba seems to have taken a bigger toll on Melissa's structure than Jamaica did, likely owing to taller mountains and worsening conditions.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/Tornadair/status/1983560118513049900

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983585971561230838

[FLpanhandle91]

Anyone have any pics or videos of the damage from the New Hope to Crawford area?

[GCANE]

Tower going up on UpShear Left.
Watching how far this rotates.
Wouldn't be surprised if this goes back to a major.