NATL: IMELDA - Models

[BobHarlem]

6z deep mind models nearly all shifted offshore (compare to the 0z a few posts above)

[TampaWxLurker]

All hail ICON (and UKMet).

[BobHarlem]

Nearly full OTS on the 12z earlies. Bermuda will need to watch if these verify.

[SFLcane]

Huh…06z eps

[boca]

Huh…06z eps

https://i.postimg.cc/T164Kkpd/IMG-1248.jpg

Does that mean this will come much closer to Florida than what is forecast?

[BobHarlem]

Huh…06z eps

https://i.postimg.cc/T164Kkpd/IMG-1248.jpg

Does that mean this will come much closer to Florida than what is forecast?

No. It does not. FWIW that side is very dry so Florida likely won't notice much as it passes by.

[LarryWx]

The last frame of 6Z Euro has this stop its ENE movement and then suddenly drift back due W fwiw as Humberto accelerates away and the upper high builds enough to its N to change the steering.

Although this is the only major op doing this, 40% of the 6Z EPS do not escape and most of those stall not too far offshore and then attain a W component of motion.

[SFLcane]

Huh…06z eps

https://i.postimg.cc/T164Kkpd/IMG-1248.jpg

Does that mean this will come much closer to Florida than what is forecast?

Could certainly get squally rainbands depending on how close it gets.

[SFLcane]

Huh…06z eps

https://i.postimg.cc/T164Kkpd/IMG-1248.jpg

Does that mean this will come much closer to Florida than what is forecast?

South Florida will feel wind & squalls increase on Sunday. It's not a bad idea to secure lose outdoor items, especially along the east Florida coast, to prevent them from blowing around. Per Setzer

 https://x.com/craigsetzer/status/1971935621355638993

[Zonacane]

Don't like the trend of more significant intensification

[boca]

As long as 9 is moving NW and not NNW I’m keeping a close eye on this because I think it will come closer than what’s forecasted. I think Humberto is pumping up the ridge and that front on water vapor doesn’t look like it digging anymore in the Gulf and across N Florida.

[wzrgirl1]

This is what I was saying a few pages back I was worried about a stall and the high building back in, but it doesn’t look like any of the models are showing this although someone mentioned the euro ensembles were showing a stall and then a movement to the west, could that just be a temporary movement to the west?

[BobHarlem]

12z icon has no real changes from the earlier runs, still a stall offshore (not closer than 6z) and east and out. Nearly identical to 6z, faster than 0z. Florida hardly gets anything from it (actually get more from the tail after it stalls out and moves out then actually passing by to the east).

[caneman]

Huh…06z eps

https://i.postimg.cc/T164Kkpd/IMG-1248.jpg

Does that mean this will come much closer to Florida than what is forecast?

No. It does not. FWIW that side is very dry so Florida likely won't notice much as it passes by.
https://i.imgur.com/mNe2DuY.png

Not ok to make such a bold claim. They are under a ts watch and if they go under a ts warning then they can in fact experience ts conditions not to mention possible flooding for low lying areas. Rule of thumb is to wait til it passes your latitude before letting guard down

[tolakram]

GFS showing rain mostly west of storm, some reaching Florida.

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

Trend is closer on 12z.

[Weathertracker96]

Will see how other models trend but it’s good the NHC put up a TS watch. If other models trend west in addition to natural storm wobbles, parts of FL coast will receive a little more than initially expected.

[cycloneye]

Trend is closer on 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/hsUhWDg.gif

After that it moves to the east.

[Travorum]

ICON still has it strengthening as it pulls east, stronger than 06z but weaker than 0z. It gets down to 942mb and tracks a lot closer to Bermuda than the 0z bringing 40-45kt sustained winds there.