ATL: ERIN - Models

[TomballEd]

6Z GFS is a direct hit on Bermuda

[eastcoastFL]

0z icon (left/sw of 12z)
https://i.postimg.cc/59wDsTqy/floop-icon-2025081300-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif
ridge situation:
https://i.imgur.com/iPGEHu8.png

Also gets it down to 929 mb.

Didn't the ICON do pretty well with some of the Atlantic TCs last year, moreso than expected by most observers (myself included)?

ICON was pretty solid last year in the tropics.

[kevin]

Note that no hurricane in the database (since 1851) has made a direct landfall on Bermuda as a category 4 hurricane. As far as I could find Nicole 2016 (105kt, 959mb) and Unnamed 1926 (105kt, 962mb) are the strongest ones. So a landfall like this would be unprecedented. Hopefully trends go back to a safe recurve in between the US/Canada and Bermuda.

[kevin]

Also while pretty much all models are now in agreement regarding a recurve, ICON is still a clear outlier for potential impacts on the continent. 00z ends at 30N, 73.5W as a cat 4/5 hurricane, a full 8 degrees west of the recent GFS runs. 06z ICON is another 85 miles SW of even the 00z ICON run, but only runs until +120 hours. My gut tells me ICON is just the odd one out, but because of those runs I'm still not completely certain.

[BobHarlem]

Also while pretty much all models are now in agreement regarding a recurve, ICON is still a clear outlier for potential impacts on the continent. 00z ends at 30N, 73.5W as a cat 4/5 hurricane, a full 8 degrees west of the recent GFS runs. 06z ICON is another 85 miles SW of even the 00z ICON run, but only runs until +120 hours. My gut tells me ICON is just the odd one out, but because of those runs I'm still not completely certain.

6z Icon is further SW than the 0z Icon at 120 hours, 22.2N 67.8W vs 22.9N 67.5W. Stronger ridge on the east side vs GFS et all. 6z GFS 23.2N 64.0W for same timeframe. Euro ensembles have no members get to the US this morning, GFS ensembles still have 2-3.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1955570026867495084

[StormWeather]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1955570026867495084

I’m still not going to let my guard down just yet. I’m in wait and see mode.

[syfr]

[xpost.

Breathe deeply, pray she misses Bermuda and keep an eye on Storm2K.

[kevin]

06z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/112kt
HMON = 979mb/95kt
HAFS-A = 943mb/119kt
HAFS-B = 939mb/121kt

--- Hurricane model blend ---

Remember when I said that until about +100hr all the hurricane models are sort of in agreement? Well, scrap that. At least for the 06z runs. In general the 06z runs are weaker than the 00z ones, but they're also far more erratic. Already at +102hr, the standard deviation of the four models is a whopping 11 mb and 17 kt. Which means that a reasonable window for intensity at +102hr is all the way from 976mb/77kt to 954mb/111kt. Not very useful. To summarize, the models show slightly delayed intensification of Erin with a hurricane 12 hours later than in the 00z models. But even after becoming a hurricane, it takes another 50 hours for the blend to show a MH. The HMON run doesn't even show Erin becoming a MH at all. Whether this is a trend or just a weird model cycle remains to be seen. The models are also more all over the place with regards to location with a location uncertainty of +/- 100 miles at +126hrs. The weaker HMON run is significantly farther north than the other models. On average, the track forecast of the blend has shifted south during this cycle, but still ends up in roughly the same location as the 00z blend. See the plot at the bottom of the post for more details.

Blend
PEAK: 950 mb @ 126 hrs | 108 kt @ 126 hrs
ACE (0 - 126 hrs) = 12.2
Time (hr) / Pressure (mb) / Wind (kt) / Location (lat, lon [deg])
00 / 1002 / 41 / 16.6N, 41.0W
06 / 1002 / 49
12 / 1000 / 49
18 / 1000 / 47 / 15.9N, 45.8W
24 / 999 / 47
30 / 1000 / 47
36 / 999 / 43 / 16.3N, 49.6W
42 / 998 / 49
48 / 994 / 52
54 / 992 / 63 / 17.4N, 53.4W
60 / 988 / 72 - C1
66 / 983 / 81
72 / 981 / 81 / 19.3N, 57.8W
78 / 981 / 80
84 / 976 / 89 - C2
90 / 975 / 83 / 20.6N, 62.0W
96 / 970 / 86
102 / 965 / 94
108 / 962 / 97 / 21.8N, 65.1W - C3
114 / 957 / 99
120 / 951 / 106
126 / 950 / 108 / 23.4N, 66.9W

--- Previous blend analyses ---

00z, August 13 = 942mb, 111kt

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

06z GFS shows Bermuda in the 100kt eastern eyewall:

[BobHarlem]

All, save one, of the 6z GFS Ensembles are offshore of the US. (the odd one out clips the outer banks and cape cod). A little more impact Canada. A slight majority are west of Bermuda.

[DunedinDave]

Every model you look at…even the 6z ICON…you can see the HP breaking down and the pathway opening up for the storm to go north. I think even if it’s on the weaker side, the opening is there for the turn. Unless a new strong ridge forms which isn’t forecast by anyone, at the very least, this should miss the Bahamas. Bermuda, unfortunately, is another story.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon is right of the 6z here. Recurve is getting more and more likely (more than it already was). Although slightly left of the 0z. Erin does get to cat 5 on the icon around hour 150.

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon is right of the 0z here at the final frame. Closer to NC than Bermuda, but still safely away from both for direct impacts. (Heavy Surf/erosion probably on the OBX though)



Includes a path to get pulled out to sea after this.

[mitchell]

My gut tells me ICON is just the odd one out, but because of those runs I'm still not completely certain.

Wow. ICON gets it down to sub-920 mb!

[TampaWxLurker]

Erin should be a pretty good test to see how well ICON handles hurricanes this year after having a pretty good track record last year.

[DunedinDave]

Florida seems to be pretty safe, but if I was in NC or the northeast, the ICON run would definitely get my attention. A little too close for comfort therr.

[Hurricane2022]

The 12z HWRF and HAFS-A runs shows that Erin will become a MH in 40-48h from now, while HAFS-B and HMON are showing a major only in 75-78h

[Nimbus]

Just trying to do a reality check against the model data.

Am I correct in assuming there is currently an upper level high centered over Jacksonville Florida?
As a second question, Is the Upper level low /TUTT that has been holding station to the north of Bermuda starting to migrate ENE?

I'm guessing the ICON will replace the TUTT with a high a little later in the forecast putting the squeeze on New Jersey? Should be able to verify that as it happens.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro more west?