ATL: ERIN - Models

[WaveBreaking]

18z ICON coming in more SW compared to the past 4 runs through hour 84. Sitting just north of PR.

Looks like the ICON has a narrow 591dm ridge forming just N of Erin. Other models have this ridge either weaker or nonexistent.

[kevin]

Big shift west for the 18z ICON. The 18z run ends at +120hr at 24.0N/71.7W, almost 2.5 deg WSW of its 12z run (24.5N/69.3W). It's also quite far west compared to the 12z Euro (23.8N/69.7W at +126hr) and would make a US landfall possible.

[floridasun]

so all timing with high weaking as some models saying it fight models who right it will turn but question where

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA again recurves at 70W. Two days ago it hit Bermuda directly.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro gets close enough to US coast to actually bring tangible impacts beyond surf.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS looking like a safe for the CONUS so far.

[kevin]

18z looks like it'll recurve (still running, +97hr now), but it is still about 1.4 degrees west of the 12z GFS run. Of course still clearly east of the latest Euro and ICON runs.

[ronjon]

Both 12z and 18z ICON keep fairly strong riding (592 dm) at the mid-level extending from the SW Atlantic bridging west into the SE US. This pattern prevents a quick escape poleward by Erin into the open Atlantic. It builds even stronger ridging to the NE of Erin through 180 hrs at 594 dm. We'll have to see if this trend continues and is picked up by other models. Still looking at 5-7 days out so Upper level pattern isn't set in stone yet.

[DunedinDave]

That ICON run gets dangerously close to Hispaniola/DR. The question I have for the experts on here is if it did hit those mountains and it crushes the circulation, would that weaken it to the point of preventing a more northerly turn since weaker storms tend to want to more more west.

[AutoPenalti]

No matter how far left this goes, the weakness is still there for it move away from the SFL.

[redingtonbeach]

The 00z run of the spaghetti's for track and intensity.

Hmmmm..

"The HAFS is NOAA’s next-generation multi-scale numerical mode..."

Hmmmm..

Sure looks to me like HAFS are still heading west...??

Hmmmm..

Hmmm.. so HAFS was the only model to correctly identify the continued westerly track. Interesting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HAFS-A coming in nearly a full degree south.

[Nimbus]

18z ICON coming in more SW compared to the past 4 runs through hour 84. Sitting just north of PR.

Looks like the ICON has a narrow 591dm ridge forming just N of Erin. Other models have this ridge either weaker or nonexistent.

Hope this isn't a trend the ridge is steadily building in to the north the last 12 hours.

[AxaltaRacing24]

18z ICON coming in more SW compared to the past 4 runs through hour 84. Sitting just north of PR.

Looks like the ICON has a narrow 591dm ridge forming just N of Erin. Other models have this ridge either weaker or nonexistent.

https://i.imgur.com/CaaWyEN.png

Hope this isn't a trend the ridge is steadily building in to the north the last 12 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/Hg8WQmU.jpeg

Although this is highly, and i mean HIGHLY unlikely, it only takes 2 or 3 more shifts like that to put people back into play. Some ensembles still slow that southern solutions are not 110% impossible.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1955770937560707141

[aspen]

The consensus from the last few hurricane model runs seems to be that Erin will take another 24 hours to fully recover and consolidate, followed by a RI phase on Friday that gets halted by shear on Saturday. Shear then seems to let up by the end of the weekend, allowing for it to maintain MH status.

Also the 18z HWRF had a garbage initialization (looks more like it did yesterday afternoon on that run) and should probably be ignored.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON coming in more SW compared to the past 4 runs through hour 84. Sitting just north of PR.

Looks like the ICON has a narrow 591dm ridge forming just N of Erin. Other models have this ridge either weaker or nonexistent.

https://i.imgur.com/CaaWyEN.png

Hope this isn't a trend the ridge is steadily building in to the north the last 12 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/Hg8WQmU.jpeg

Erin's position over the next 24 hours will also play a role down the line. A track more south than forecast in the near term may delay the NW turn.

[Kingarabian]

18z GEFS has more members west compared to the past 3 runs. Majority show a clean recurve or a Bermuda impact.

[BobHarlem]

18z HAFS A & B are left of the 12z some. (b 22.7N now vs 23.2N at 12z, a 22.0N vs 23.0N at 12z ) -- using frame at 18z monday the 18th.
final frames below - Turks and Caicos are the islands on the left, and southeast bahamas visible on the A:

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is a bit more SW at hour 72 compared to the 12z run.