NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

This is a historic thing that has occured and for that reason, will leave the title of the thread like this NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion; Cat 5 on 9/27/25 at 5 PM now and when it gets to the Archives 2025 forum.

[Travorum]

ADT has reached 7.0 but its probably not going higher in the near future with the CDO warming a bit.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2025 Time : 231019 UTC
Lat : 23:00:36 N Lon : 61:28:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 923.6mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +20.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.4C

[Hurricane2022]

Our EWRC has just started, it seems.

[StormWeather]

This is a historic thing that has occured and for that reason, will leave the title of the thread like this NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion; Cat 5 on 9/27/25 at 5 PM now and when it gets to the Archieves 2025 forum.

How is it historic?

[cycloneye]

This is a historic thing that has occured and for that reason, will leave the title of the thread like this NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion; Cat 5 on 9/27/25 at 5 PM now and when it gets to the Archieves 2025 forum.

How is it historic?

Only to be a cat 5 that are only very few around the world in decades is a historic moment. Having two in only one season is impressive.

[cycloneye]

Stays as cat 5.

08L HUMBERTO 250928 0000 23.1N 61.6W ATL 140 924

[Hammy]

Some records held by the name Humberto:

• Humberto is now one of the 4 names that have become a hurricane 6 times, the highest on record.
  
  • The other 6-time hurricane users are: Earl, Florence, and Frances.
• Humberto became a hurricane every time the name was used. Among such "perfect record" holders, Humberto had a greater number of uses by a long shot.
  
  • Other "perfect record" holders have only managed a streak of at most 4 uses. All such names with 4 uses are no longer on today's naming lists: Felix, Floyd, Gladys, Lili.
  • Among the list of names still in use today, only two other names had perfect records after a measly 2 uses: Rafael and Holly. (Holly, the replacement of Helene, only got here because the name was used twice before the modern naming lists.)

You can find details of both records in this post that I wrote in April, which has just been updated with 2025 storm names.

Another interesting note is, Humberto replaced Hugo--so this slot in this particular name list has become a hurricane seven consecutive times when that's taken into account

[cheezyWXguy]

This is a historic thing that has occured and for that reason, will leave the title of the thread like this NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion; Cat 5 on 9/27/25 at 5 PM now and when it gets to the Archives 2025 forum.

How is it historic?

Only to be a cat 5 that are only very few around the world in decades is a historic moment. Having two in only one season is impressive.

Seems especially rare to have 2 cat5s in the open Atlantic in the same season as well. Only other season im aware of in my lifetime is 2019. All other seasons with multiple cat5s had at least one of them in the Caribbean or GOM

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This is a historic thing that has occured and for that reason, will leave the title of the thread like this NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion; Cat 5 on 9/27/25 at 5 PM now and when it gets to the Archives 2025 forum.

How is it historic?

Cat 5 upgrade without recon or surface observation hasn’t happened since 2007.

[Teban54]

This is a historic thing that has occured and for that reason, will leave the title of the thread like this NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion; Cat 5 on 9/27/25 at 5 PM now and when it gets to the Archives 2025 forum.

How is it historic?

Only to be a cat 5 that are only very few around the world in decades is a historic moment. Having two in only one season is impressive.

Only 5 years on record had two or more Cat 5 hurricanes by this date: 1933, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2025. (Source: Philip Klotzbach)

Edit: Oops, I dropped "by this date", which significantly changed the meaning lol. The following seasons had two Cat 5s, with one occurring after this date: 1932, 1961, 2019, 2024.

[Teban54]

EWRC underway.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1972062636851511608

[cycloneye]

Wow. This spectacular image is from the International Space Station.

[zhukm29]

Some records held by the name Humberto:

• Humberto is now one of the 4 names that have become a hurricane 6 times, the highest on record.
  
  • The other 6-time hurricane users are: Earl, Florence, and Frances.
• Humberto became a hurricane every time the name was used. Among such "perfect record" holders, Humberto had a greater number of uses by a long shot.
  
  • Other "perfect record" holders have only managed a streak of at most 4 uses. All such names with 4 uses are no longer on today's naming lists: Felix, Floyd, Gladys, Lili.
  • Among the list of names still in use today, only two other names had perfect records after a measly 2 uses: Rafael and Holly. (Holly, the replacement of Helene, only got here because the name was used twice before the modern naming lists.)

You can find details of both records in this post that I wrote in April, which has just been updated with 2025 storm names.

Another interesting note is, Humberto replaced Hugo--so this slot in this particular name list has become a hurricane seven consecutive times when that's taken into account

Which is kind of funny considering other H names like Henri and Hermine have terrible luck when it comes to attaining hurricane status (it took Henri 42 years to attain hurricane status after its first usage in 1979, and Hermine became a hurricane for the first time in 2016 after multiple failed attempts). Yet the H name on List 5 always hits (I believe this slot holds all of the H named category 5 hurricanes since the modern naming lists were introduced also, with Hugo and now Humberto).

[skillz305]

Simply put: a beautiful, strong, quiet storm.

(As long as it leaves Bermuda alone)

[Hurricane Mike]

I disagree with the forecast to Category 5. I don't think Humberto will reach it. I could be wrong but I think it stays as a Category 4.

I was wrong. I didn't think Humberto would reach it.

[Iceresistance]

I think it's safe to say with certainty that an EWRC might be in it's early stages with Humberto, inner eyewall is very weak or open to the north

https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bw38X.png

[zhukm29]

 https://x.com/JonnyKimUSA/status/1972091823503167753

[Sciencerocks]

[zhukm29]

Still has some time to strengthen before internal mechanics disrupt this round of intensification. Though I'm a little curious as to why intensification to 145 kts is explicitly forecast, when the question of whether it verifies or not it will essentially come down to a judgement call in the absence of recon. It's quite possible that the storm is near or at that strength already, but T7.0 (subjective) and T7.2 (ADT) is probably the best Humberto can manage in the time it has, which equates to roughly...140 kts, still. It took a T7.5 fix for Typhoon Ragasa to get upgraded to 145, and that was with impressive surface observations and a major landfall threat. Hard to imagine that happening here, though I know it's a different agency issuing the advisories.

Looks like the 145kt forecast point was dropped (I didn't think they would end up pulling that trigger anyway without recon, especially since Jova in 2023 got a T7.5 fix but was still analyzed to be 140kt). Seems like we'll have to wait until recon as the only chance to get an operational 145kt data point, but that seems less likely given how late the first recon flight will be.