NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weathertracker96]

I think I said this before and sorry if I am a little out of line.
This close in high-altitude recon has minimal benefit at this point.
They need to send planes into the GoM.

Can you explain the GOM situation?

[GCANE]

I think I said this before and sorry if I am a little out of line.
This close in high-altitude recon has minimal benefit at this point.
They need to send planes into the GoM.

g eas

Can you explain the GOM situation?

A low-level vort has formed at the tail end of the trof, just north of the Yucatan.
This is moving east toward TD9.
It will interact with TD9 and govern in large part its track.
Motion will primarily driven by the Fujiwhara effect where the two will try and circle counterclockwise around each other.
You wont see a big spin rather a shift in the track of TD9 based on where the two are located.
Timing of the two is everything and how strong they are is also key.

[GCANE]

Can't sample much of the SW side because of air restrictions near Cuba

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... E_zoom.png

Hopefully they do a south to north pass

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... YCLONE.png

My wife is in Europe, I am going to light up a Cohiba Behike from Cuba.

[Blown Away]

How does the NHC advertise NW at 5-6 mph all day and it’s been stuck at 76.5 since this morning.

[GCANE]

Something is going up very close where they last tagged it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[GCANE]

Latest Vort message
Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:40:58Z
Center Fix Coordinates: 22.40N 76.64W
Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated

Moving WNW now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... YCLONE.png

[GCANE]

Archer is up now.
Pretty much right on track so far

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... /track.png

[Weathertracker96]

I think I said this before and sorry if I am a little out of line.
This close in high-altitude recon has minimal benefit at this point.
They need to send planes into the GoM.

g eas

Can you explain the GOM situation?

A low-level vort has formed at the tail end of the trof, just north of the Yucatan.
This is moving east toward TD9.
It will interact with TD9 and govern in large part its track.
Motion will primarily driven by the Fujiwhara effect where the two will try and circle counterclockwise around each other.
You wont see a big spin rather a shift in the track of TD9 based on where the two are located.
Timing of the two is everything and how strong they are is also key.

Thank you so much for explaining. Another layer to an already interesting dynamic. Thanks for your analysis

[cycloneye]

Jog to the west.

[GCANE]

g eas

Can you explain the GOM situation?

A low-level vort has formed at the tail end of the trof, just north of the Yucatan.
This is moving east toward TD9.
It will interact with TD9 and govern in large part its track.
Motion will primarily driven by the Fujiwhara effect where the two will try and circle counterclockwise around each other.
You wont see a big spin rather a shift in the track of TD9 based on where the two are located.
Timing of the two is everything and how strong they are is also key.

Thank you so much for explaining. Another layer to an already interesting dynamic. Thanks for your analysis

Absolutely.

[GCANE]

The next pass will be the big tell.

[eastcoastFL]

How does the NHC advertise NW at 5-6 mph all day and it’s been stuck at 76.5 since this morning.

I've been wondering the same thing. I keep checking to see where it is now and it's in the same spot. I thought my screen never refreshed

[eastcoastFL]

Jog to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/0JrH5Mk.png

No major pressure drops but seems to steadily be picking up steam.

[GCANE]

Looks like they missed the last eye drop.
Have to wait for another go around.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2025092800, , BEST, 0, 224N, 766W, 30, 1004, TD

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the latest vortex msg it looks like the center reformed to the SW. The one on the right was first, the left was second, and the bottom of the triangle was 3rd

[GCANE]

Going nowhere

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... YCLONE.png

[skillz305]

Has it technically been stalling today in its current location right under our noses? I’m completely mind boggled.

[Coolcruiseman]

Has it technically been stalling today in its current location right under our noses? I’m completely mind boggled.

Very little movement today since the 11 am update. And no movement since the 8 pm.

[boca]

Going nowhere

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... YCLONE.png

Looks like that vort in the Gulf dissipated or weakened.