SIO: DIKELEDI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 990 hPa.

Position on January 14 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.8 South / 39.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1685 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 720 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.


System Information:

- Strong tropical storm DIKELEDI has been moving over land in Mozambique's Nampula province over the past 12 hours, gradually curving its path southward. It has now moved out to sea.

- Back at sea, DIKELEDI should re-intensify to the stage of intense cyclone during the day on Wednesday thanks to a favorable context, while accelerating its course towards the south-southeast, which would make it approach the west coast of the Malagasy province of Toliara. In the longer term (Thursday / Friday) the system should continue towards the southern latitudes by taking a south-easterly direction, no longer presenting a danger for inhabited lands.

- Currently the provinces of Nampula, Cabo Delgado and Zambezia are experiencing very poor weather conditions. Very heavy rains and even torrential rains are affecting these provinces and to a lesser extent the province of Cabo Delgado. Destructive winds and dangerous sea conditions with a risk of marine submersion are currently occurring between Ihla de Mocambique and the north of Quelimane. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.

- Concerning Juan de Nova, precipitation bands quite far to the east of the center of the system bring very heavy rains or even torrential rains. A dangerous sea state with risk of marine submersion is possible on Tuesday.

- Concerning the western coasts of Madagascar, precipitation bands quite far to the east of the center of the system bring very heavy rains or even torrential rains. They could reach the western coasts of Madagascar during the day.

- Concerning Europa, heavy rains, strong to destructive (even very destructive) winds and dangerous sea conditions with risk of marine submersion are likely on Wednesday.

- From Wednesday during the day until Thursday, DIKELEDI could threaten the southwest of the Malagasy coast of the province of Toliara. Heavy rains, strong to destructive winds and a dangerous sea state with risk of marine submersion are likely.

[cycloneye]

- Strong tropical storm DIKELEDI continues to slowly intensify in the Mozambique Channel as it moves south-southeast. It is located approximately 250 km off the coast of Madagascar and less than 100 km from Europa Island.

- DIKELEDI is expected to continue its intensification over the next few hours to tropical cyclone status by Wednesday evening, then could approach intense tropical cyclone status between tonight and Thursday, while remaining a good distance from the Malagasy coast on a fairly rapid trajectory towards the south-southeast then southeast.

- On the periphery of the system, the southwest coasts of Madagascar (Toliara province) are exposed this Wednesday and next night to heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous sea conditions.

- Concerning Europa, heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous sea conditions with risk of marine submersion are expected this Wednesday.

- From Thursday evening, DIKELEDI is expected to move away towards subtropical latitudes while gradually weakening, before gradually losing its tropical characteristics at the end of the week over cooler waters, while curving its course towards the east. It will then no longer pose a danger to inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated central pressure: 967 hPa.

Position on January 15 at 4 p.m. local time: 23.7 South / 41.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1425 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1260 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 39 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI intensified to tropical cyclone status this Wednesday afternoon. It is located about 200 km off the southwest coast of Madagascar, off Toliara, following a rapid movement towards the south-southeast.

- DIKELEDI is expected to intensify rapidly between this Wednesday evening and tomorrow Thursday, benefiting from very favorable environmental conditions and remarkably warm waters off the southwest and then southern coasts of Madagascar. It is thus expected to reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone between tonight and Thursday, while remaining more than 150 km from the Malagasy coast.

- On the periphery of the system, the southwest coasts of Madagascar (Toliara province) are exposed this Wednesday evening and tonight to heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous sea conditions.

- From Thursday evening, DIKELEDI should move away towards subtropical latitudes while gradually weakening, before progressively losing its tropical characteristics at the end of the week over cooler waters. It will then no longer pose a danger to inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

Impressive comeback after being inland in Mozambique Will be post-tropical in a couple of days.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 230 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 948 hPa.

Position on January 16 at 04:00 local time: 27.3 South / 43.3 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1385 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1610 km to sector: SOUTH

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 37 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI has passed the threshold of an intense tropical cyclone and is continuing on its trajectory towards the south-southeast. It is moving away from the coast of Madagascar.

- DIKELEDI is currently experiencing a rapid intensification phase, which is expected to continue for nearly another 6 hours, benefiting from very favorable environmental conditions and remarkably warm waters off the southwest and southern coasts of Madagascar.

- On the periphery of the system, the southwest coasts of Madagascar (Toliara province) are exposed this Wednesday evening and tonight to heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous sea conditions.

- From Thursday evening, DIKELEDI should move away towards subtropical latitudes while gradually weakening, before progressively losing its tropical characteristics at the end of the week over cooler waters. It will then no longer pose a danger to inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1879717966918349006

[Hurricane2022]

a ghoulishly macabre face

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 175 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 250 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 945 hPa.

Position on January 16 at 10 a.m. local time: 28.9 South / 44.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1360 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1780 km to sector: SOUTH

Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 31 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI passed the threshold of intense tropical cyclone this morning and is currently reaching its peak intensity. At a latitude of 28.8°S DIKELEDI becomes the southernmost intense tropical cyclone in our database, surpassing the record of ANGREEK last year. It is currently located 250km south of Madagascar and continues its rapid movement towards the southeast.

- On the periphery of the system, the southwest coast of Madagascar (Toliara province) is still exposed to heavy rains and dangerous sea conditions for the next few hours. Conditions are improving rapidly.

- DIKELEDI continues to move away towards subtropical latitudes while gradually weakening from tonight. Then it will gradually lose its tropical characteristics tomorrow over cooler waters. It will then no longer present a danger to inhabited land.

[kevin]

Dikeledi is probably past its peak now, but it had an impressive life as a cyclone. Official peak intensity is 945 mb, 100 kt even though satellite imagery suggests it may have peaked slightly higher in the last 12 hours. Below are the peak intensities of the different satellite estimation methods.

ADT = 938 mb, 112 kt (Jan 16, 06:30z)
AiDT = 116 kt (Jan 16, 07:30z)
D-PRINT = 945 mb, 103 kt (Jan 16, 08:00z)
SATCON = 942 mb, 120 kt (Jan 16, 04:00z)

No D-MINT data is available so far for the last 9 hours (as far as I could find) so I didn't include it. Blending the peak intensities of these satellite estimates results in a peak intensity of 942 mb, 113 kt. This also matches well with my personal opinion of the satellite imagery and suggests that Dikeledi could've been a high-end cat 3 or minimal cat 4.

[cycloneye]

- DIKELEDI entered a phase of rapid weakening this Thursday evening in connection with the deterioration of environmental conditions (increase in wind shear and arrival on cooler waters, close to 25°C towards the 32nd parallel South). The system was thus downgraded to the stage of tropical cyclone.

- DIKELEDI will continue to weaken and should gradually lose its tropical characteristics on Friday over increasingly cooler waters.

- DIKELEDI no longer poses a danger to inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 983 hPa.

Position on January 17 at 10 a.m. local time: 33.8 South / 54.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1390 km to the sector: SOUTH

Distance from Mayotte: 2520 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 50 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI continues to weaken in connection with the increase in wind shear and its arrival on cooler waters (close to 24°C towards the 33rd parallel South). It has started its extratropicalization

- DIKELEDI will continue to weaken and is expected to lose its tropical characteristics today, before filling out far from inhabited lands late this weekend.