NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

[cheezyWXguy]

Developing eyewall can be seen on the eastern edge of the Melbourne, FL radar

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pressure is down to 990 on the last pass

[wxman57]

I'm just a lurker and weather nerd so can someone explain to me, so that I can understand, what is going to cause Imelda to make this
90 degree turn OTS. If it's Humberto, how is it tugging on Imelda when they are basically rotating in the same direction, if anything I
would think the stronger storm would push the weaker one more to the west.

Prior to tomorrow, Humberto is producing a steering current from north to south on its western side, causing Imelda to slow down. Once Humberto passes Imelda a little bit more, the jet stream will dip south in Humberto's wake. It is this WSW-ENE jet stream that carries Imelda off to the east-northeast. Humberto isn't pulling on Imelda.

Thanks Wxman, that makes perfect since. Any chance the jet stream backs up to the north.

No, not much of a chance of that. The U.S. East Coast will be spared. Bermuda, not so much. I have hurricane force wind extending out 50-60 miles from its center as it passes Bermuda Wednesday night. Tropical storm force wind over 300 miles from the center as it transitions to a very large extratropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday.

[wxman57]

Developing eyewall can be seen on the eastern edge of the Melbourne, FL radar

The center is about 230 miles SE of Melbourne radar. The radar on the Melbourne NWS office web site doesn't go out to the center. You'd be looking about 30,000 ft above the surface at that distance. The plane is finding evidence of 45 kt wind NE of the center.

[cheezyWXguy]

Developing eyewall can be seen on the eastern edge of the Melbourne, FL radar

The center is about 230 miles SE of Melbourne radar. The radar on the Melbourne NWS office web site doesn't go out to the center. You'd be looking about 30,000 ft above the surface at that distance. The plane is finding evidence of 45 kt wind NE of the center.

Velocity certainly doesn’t, but it looks like reflectivity just reaches it. Agreed on everything else though.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't know that I have ever seen two storms this close together

[REDHurricane]

At this rate it looks like we might never see a non-major hurricane ever again...

[KPILM]

I have to question why AccuWeather continues to insist we're going to get 30mph winds with 56mph wind gusts here in Wilmington tomorrow. That doesn't seem very Accur...ate. Do they just never update?

[sasha_B]

The 990 hPa center fix from minutes ago suggests that Imelda is creeping up on hurricane strength, but the flight-level wind measurements are still well below that & don't really support going higher than 45 kts at 15z. Is the lower pressure relative to sustained winds a factor of the size of the system, environmental pressure, both, or something else entirely?

[Teban54]

Very noticeable CDO rotation now:

[cycloneye]

Interesting excerpt from the 11 AM discussion:

Imelda is also likely to get a intensity boost from a favorable trough interaction, which could enhance the winds along the cyclone's northwestern flank, and a higher 85 kt peak is now shown during this time. This enhancement could evolve into a "sting jet" like feature as the system becomes extratropical.

[ElectricStorm]

Think this may have a chance to make a run towards 100kts on approach to Bermuda. First 4 hurricanes becoming majors would probably be something that won't happen again for an extremely long time. Heck even 3 probably won't happen for a while.

[sasha_B]

While the average motion remains 360° - due north - it looks like Imelda is wobbling just to the west of that based on the recon fixes. Movement to the east of due north is expected to begin today, with the proper turn to the northeast and then ENE expected by tonight into tomorrow morning, based on the 15z track forecast. I'll be watching closely to see when that sets in - if only out of curiosity, now that the chance of wind impacts on the Carolina coastline is approaching zero. Not often you get to see such a complex interaction between multiple low-pressure systems.

[cycloneye]

From Folly Beach, SC.

 https://x.com/weatherchannel/status/1972712509430718963

[sasha_B]

From Folly Beach, SC.

 https://x.com/weatherchannel/status/1972712509430718963

Right up the road from here. Wind has been next to none - calmer than last night - a few miles inland. Rain has also been minimal, brief downpour on the peninsula but less than you'd expect from a typical summer thunderstorm. WPC and local NWS office are both now forecasting less than an inch of rain in the next 48 hours. Mercifully this has shaped up to be nothing at all like that one Euro deterministic run on Friday that showed Debby/Florence-type precip. totals.

[Nimbus]

Its amazing how tight a forecast this was with the dry shear so close.
A few years ago Bermuda might have caught a break and the sheer would have undercut Imelda`s inflow.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I do believe we are starting to see an eye try to pop out

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Think this may have a chance to make a run towards 100kts on approach to Bermuda. First 4 hurricanes becoming majors would probably be something that won't happen again for an extremely long time. Heck even 3 probably won't happen for a while.

Watch it happen for several years in a row, just like Houston’s once a year 100-year flood

[Category5Kaiju]

Obviously there's the "no threat to land" aspect of strong recurving hurricanes that we all like to see. But I personally love recurving hurricanes as they can give us some pretty decent eye candy, especially as they get attached to a trough and get that really long tail that extends northeastward. Will be interesting to watch that in action during the next several days.