ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

[crownweather]

https://i.postimg.cc/3xnbbPtT/IMG-5367.jpg

12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

Seems the ICON is seeing a stronger system that is able to be pulled out of the Caribbean by a strong upper level trough over the Eastern US. Other models show a very weak system that misses the trough and is pushed into Central America.

[StormWeather]

https://i.postimg.cc/3xnbbPtT/IMG-5367.jpg

12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

Seems the ICON is seeing a stronger system that is able to be pulled out of the Caribbean by a strong upper level trough over the Eastern US. Other models show a very weak system that misses the trough and is pushed into Central America.

Is there a middle ground?

[Stratton23]

ICON might be the model to watch though, global models have consistently over the past 24 hours trended toward a stronger surface reflection with 99L as they play catch up to real time

[LAF92]

ICON might be the model to watch though, global models have consistently over the past 24 hours trended toward a stronger surface reflection with 99L as they play catch up to real time

GFS for the first time in a a couple days shows a closed circulation a few different times during the 12z run. Like you said they are showing a stronger surface reflection.

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/3xnbbPtT/IMG-5367.jpg

12z ICON still holding to its guns, with a strengthing Tropical Storm going through the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

Does the icon have a good track record at sniffing stuff out before other models join?
Also, what does the steering look like on this?

Icon has been very hit and miss. In mid July, they were the most insistent on 93L, which was moving from off the SE US to the NW Gulf, becoming a TS/H. It ended up not even becoming a TC.

[Stratton23]

EPS just got way more aggressive with this, a couple members now showing a decent hurricane in the central caribbean

[LAF92]

EPS just got way more aggressive with this, a couple members now showing a decent hurricane in the central caribbean

You find that at weathernerds Stratton?

[Stratton23]

LAF92 I use weatherbell, but the EPS up-trended in total members developing this but also numerous members showing a really strong hurricane out of this in the gulf, the spread of from mexico to florida though lol which is to be expected

[Nimbus]

LAF92 I use weatherbell, but the EPS up-trended in total members developing this but also numerous members showing a really strong hurricane out of this in the gulf, the spread of from mexico to florida though lol which is to be expected

The 12Z ICON has this missing the troughs and passing through the Yucatan channel which is a favorite track for major gulf storms. Watching the ridge migration at the 500 mb height you can see at 180 hours the 594 line/ highest part of the ridge is further east. 588 line would suggest its not going to be a Charlie. I'd guess gulf coast landfall this run. Its still a strong surface trough so I'd give higher development chances than the NHC but wouldn't want to forecast any landfall potential now, that confuses people.

[Pelicane]

EPS just got way more aggressive with this, a couple members now showing a decent hurricane in the central caribbean

You find that at weathernerds Stratton?

Pivotal Weather has it for free

[zhukm29]

 https://x.com/garrettmb/status/1959320930011742594

[StormWeather]

 https://x.com/garrettmb/status/1959320930011742594

Well that ain’t good. Gotta keep an eye out for it. Should 90L take Fernand, this would become Gabrielle if it was named.

[LAF92]

[imgur][/imgur]
SHIPs is staying on board

[StormWeather]

https://i.postimg.cc/rF3XMf3W/IMG-5368.jpg

SHIPs is staying on board

That reminds me of Beryl’s track.

[Travorum]

https://i.postimg.cc/rF3XMf3W/IMG-5368.jpg

SHIPs is staying on board

SHIPS is trending more north, yesterday's runs had 99L barely avoiding South America. That would remove one failure mode for development.

[StormWeather]

https://i.postimg.cc/rF3XMf3W/IMG-5368.jpg

SHIPs is staying on board

SHIPS is trending more north, yesterday's runs had 99L barely avoiding South America. That would remove one failure mode for development.

How many times have the models tried to kill off a budding disturbance (and the NHC said that X system could develop until X day, before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development) and then it blows up into a decent system?

[Category5Kaiju]

Recent 12z ECMWF ensembles are....alarming, to say the least. More have this entering the Caribbean Sea as a bona fide tropical storm and lift north to avoid slamming into South America. There are a select few that enter the Gulf and turn this into a major hurricane. And god forbid, I even spot one member that turns this into a Category 5.

Over the course of a single day, we went from doubting that this may have a long-term future to "oh snap...maybe it does, and some of the possible outcomes look fairly sinister."

[zhukm29]

https://i.postimg.cc/rF3XMf3W/IMG-5368.jpg

SHIPs is staying on board

SHIPS is trending more north, yesterday's runs had 99L barely avoiding South America. That would remove one failure mode for development.

How many times have the models tried to kill off a budding disturbance (and the NHC said that X system could develop until X day, before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development) and then it blows up into a decent system?

The most notorious recent examples are probably Oscar last year (10/20 two days before it developed) and Jose 2023 (dropped to 0/0 three days before it developed).

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro ensembles for 99L (and a little of Fernand). If the system overachieves those northern branches are a bit more likely. Those bears need to watch it very closely (Recon going out tomorrow)

[Stratton23]

This afternoons hurricane models have more of a turn to the NW around the yucatan peninsula, based on its current presentation, i suspect we will have a tropical storm approaching the leeward islands within the next 24 hours, I also believe a crash straight into CA is looking less likely, so i dont really buy the GEFS ensemble, my thinking is 99L should end up in the vicinity of the yucatan channel/ Cuba within 6-7 days