NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[aspen]

Crazy sight to wake up to this morning. But now it looks like an EWRC or eyewall meld is already starting, based on some developments on the east side of the CDO. Lines up with an occasional outer eyewall on that radar loop.

[Stormgodess]

Will we be getting any updated surge prediction maps?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1982363664461037772

[GCANE]

Cat 4

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[GCANE]

Up to 40" rain on the eastern end of Jamaica

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1982374720411451873

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Up to 40" rain on the eastern end of Jamaica

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1982374720411451873

Forty more inches. It has already been raining for two days.

[mrbagyo]

Convection has fully wrapped on the weaker NE sector again
Kermit is only about 1 hour+ away.

[GCANE]

Convection has fully wrapped on the weaker NE sector again
Kermit is only about 1 hour+ away.

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3neZ.gif

I have never seen vortices on the feeder band like that.

[Beef Stew]

Convection has fully wrapped on the weaker NE sector again
Kermit is only about 1 hour+ away.

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3neZ.gif

I have never seen vortices on the feeder band like that.

Structurally she reminds me quite a lot of Beryl with the massive feeder band and these vortices.

[mrbagyo]

Why it appears Kermit's making a UTurn

[kevin]

Melissa looks incredible, I think recon is gonna find a very extreme storm.

[kevin]

Why it appears Kermit's making a UTurn
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ubq.jpg

Looks like it's travelling south again so maybe it's all good.

[kevin]

Raw T# back up to 7.5, CDO at -76C and the eye temp up to its highest value so far of 15.7C. Looks like recon is arriving at the perfect time.

[Beef Stew]

It shouldn’t be too long before we get our first pass.

[mrbagyo]

948.9 extrapolated

[Beef Stew]

I’m guessing she’s somewhere around 940 mb and 125-130 kts.

Edit: 949 extrap

[eastcoastFL]

The wind field is still extremely small with hurricane force wines reaching out just 25 miles from center. The surge and rain is still going to be the biggest issue but at least the worst of the winds will be somewhat isolated.

[otowntiger]

The wind field is still extremely small with hurricane force wines reaching out just 25 miles from center. The surge and rain is still going to be the biggest issue but at least the worst of the winds will be somewhat isolated.

I was noticing that too. This is a very compact storm- similar to Andrew

[TheDreamTraveler]

The wind field is still extremely small with hurricane force wines reaching out just 25 miles from center. The surge and rain is still going to be the biggest issue but at least the worst of the winds will be somewhat isolated.

It still has almost 2 days to expand its wind field before it makes landfall

[cheezyWXguy]

Think that persistent burst on the se side is associated with the temporary slowdown in pressure drops. Maybe a little dry air trying to get into the circulation, though I doubt it would reach the core. Just seems like the expected stair stepping that was pointed out last night.