SIO: DIKELEDI - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

94S INVEST 241230 0000 13.5S 109.8E SHEM 15 1009

[StormWeather]

Models want this to beeline straight westward to Madagascar.

[cycloneye]

DISRUPTED ZONE 05-20242025

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1004 hPa.

Position on January 7 at 10 p.m. local time Reunion: 14.3 South / 76.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2355 km in the EAST-NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3430 km to the EAST sector

Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.


System Information:

- The disturbed area 05-20242025 is still located more than 800 km southeast of Diego-Garcia. This system is expected to move westward while gradually intensifying.

- On this trajectory, the system will remain away from inhabited lands in the next 48 hours, before approaching Saint-Brandon then Tromelin by Friday, generating degraded conditions. Strong or even destructive winds are possible on these islands. Heavy rain and dangerous seas are also expected in these territories. It is strongly recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the system and to prepare for the possible threat of a mature system.

- Subsequently, the system could generate impacts in terms of heavy rains, strong or even destructive winds and dangerous seas, before landing on the North of Madagascar by Saturday. However, the extent and location of the deterioration remains to be specified. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.

Here are the expected intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the next few days:

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/08 at 10 p.m. local time, at 14.9 South / 68.9 East.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/09 at 10 p.m. local time, at 15.1 South / 61.5 East.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 10/01 at 10 p.m. local time, at 15.0 South / 55.1 East.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 11/01 at 10 p.m. local time, at 14.4 South / 49.2 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 12/01 at 10 p.m. local time, at 15.1 South / 44.9 East

[StormWeather]

Finally a TCFA after 9 days of tracking this;



WTXS21 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 77.4E TO 14.5S 64.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 76.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 14.1S
77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARICA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071753Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL A 071628Z METOP-C AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF 94S WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, 94S ALSO HAS WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082100Z.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[StormWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/QhlkYw1.gif

It looks like a TC now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 07S soon from the JTWC. The next SWIO name is Dikeledi.

[StormWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/QhlkYw1.gif

[StormWeather]

Finally a TCFA after 9 days of tracking this;



WTXS21 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 77.4E TO 14.5S 64.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 76.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 14.1S
77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARICA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071753Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL A 071628Z METOP-C AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF 94S WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, 94S ALSO HAS WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082100Z.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 5


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1000 hPa.

Position on January 8 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.1 South / 72.3 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1865 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2940 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 37 km/h.


System Information:

- The system remained at the stage of tropical depression 05-20242025 and is located approximately 860 km south of Diego-Garcia.

- This system has accelerated its movement towards the west and should gradually strengthen.

- On this trajectory, the system will generate degraded conditions on Saint-Brandon from Thursday evening then on Tromelin Friday. Strong or even destructive winds are possible on these islands. Heavy rains and dangerous seas are also expected on these territories between Thursday and Saturday morning. It is strongly recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the system.

- Subsequently, passing far to the north of the Great Mascarenes, the system could generate impacts in terms of heavy rains, strong or even destructive winds and dangerous seas, before landing in the North of Madagascar (ANTSIRANANA province) by Saturday. However, the extent and location of the deterioration remains to be specified. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.

[cycloneye]

The system it taking shape towards being a bonifide cyclone very soon.

[kevin]

06z GFS goes wild with a C4/5 after the Madagascar passage/landfall.

[Subtrop]

The Tropical Depression which is evolving to the east north east of St Brandon has intensified into a Moderate Tropical storm during the night.

It has been named “DIKELEDI” by the Mauritius Meteorological Services at 0000UTC, this Thursday 09 January 2025

It is moving westward at a speed of 30 km/h.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.

Position on January 9 at 04:00 local time: 15.0 South / 66.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1305 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2300 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 35 km/h.


System Information:

- System 05-20242025 intensified slightly during the night, justifying its baptism at 00UTC by the Mauritian meteorological service. DIKELEDI therefore passes the threshold of moderate tropical storm.

- On its trajectory, the system will generate degraded conditions on Saint-Brandon from Thursday evening then on Tromelin Friday. Strong winds are likely on these two islands, accompanied by dangerous seas between Thursday and Saturday morning. It is strongly recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the system.

- Subsequently, by passing far to the north of the Great Mascarenes, the system could generate impacts in terms of heavy rains, strong or even destructive winds and dangerous seas, on the North of Madagascar (province of ANTSIRANANA) by Saturday. However, the extent and location of the deterioration remains to be specified. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.

- The latest forecasts suggest a trajectory remaining a little longer on Malagasy lands or even along the west coast of Madagascar. However, it is still too early to specify the extent of the meteorological deterioration on Malagasy lands.

[StormWeather]

Well, welcome to Dikeledi! Earliest fourth named storm there in a while. The past three seasons have seen the D- named storm in February.

Concerning though that it seems some model guidance want Dikeledi to become a strong storm in the Mozambique Channel. I am not quite on that train yet.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.

Position on January 9 at 10 a.m. local time: 14.6 South / 63.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1105 km to the sector: NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2020 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 31 km/h.


System Information:

- Moderate tropical storm DIKELEDI was named late last night. It is the 4th named storm of the season in the basin. It is located this Thursday morning a little over 550 km north of Rodrigues and is moving west.

- DIKELEDI is a small system experiencing favorable conditions for a fairly rapid intensification in the next two days. It is therefore expected to reach the stage of a strong tropical storm tonight and then a tropical cyclone during the day on Friday.

- The system will generate dangerous sea conditions on Saint-Brandon from this Thursday evening then on Tromelin between Friday and the following night.

- It then poses a serious threat to northern Madagascar from Saturday where a mature landfall is expected Saturday evening on the east coast of Antsiranana province, probably between Antalaha and Antsiranana. Strong winds are expected from Saturday afternoon, with possible very destructive winds in the evening and early night from Saturday to Sunday near the impact zone. Heavy rains are also expected in Antsiranana province and northern Toamasina province. A dangerous sea state is also expected near the impact zone. Residents are advised to follow the evolution of the forecast through their national weather service.

- After passing over the lands of northern Madagascar, the system should emerge on the western side having lost its intensity. The trajectory forecast from Sunday is more uncertain and will need to be confirmed, passing more or less close to the northwest coast of Madagascar, which will determine a possible new intensification. It is therefore still too early to specify the impacts on the northwest coast of Madagascar.

- Concerning Mayotte, a peripheral influence of the system is possible from Sunday, but it is still too early to quantify the extent of the deterioration.

[cycloneye]

Moderate tropical storm DIKELEDI continues its strengthening phase.
Located by points 14.2S/61.8E, it is moving westward at 33km/h.
On this track, DIKELEDI is expected to pass to its closest point to Saint Brandon tonight, with gusts up to130km/h, rough seas and heavy rain.
The storm will quickly strengthen thereafter to affect northern Madagascar at tropical cyclone status ( US CAT 1 or more ) on Saturday.
Mauritius is expected to experience deteriorating weather conditions tomorrow with the possibility of thundery showers.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 996 hPa.

Position on January 9 at 10 p.m. local time: 14.2 South / 60.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 900 km to the sector: NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1660 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 30 km/h.


System Information:

- Moderate tropical storm DIKELEDI is located this Thursday evening a little over 1000 km east of the Malagasy coast and is moving west at a good pace.

- DIKELEDI is a small compact system encountering favorable conditions for a fairly rapid intensification in the next two days. It is therefore still forecast to reach the stage of a strong tropical storm during this night and then a tropical cyclone during the day on Friday.

- The system is currently generating dangerous sea conditions over Saint-Brandon until late tonight and then over Tromelin between Friday and the following night.

- It then poses a serious threat to northern Madagascar from Saturday where a landfall at the stage of tropical cyclone is expected late Saturday or evening on the east coast of Antsiranana province, probably between Sambava and Antsiranana. Strong winds are expected from early Saturday afternoon, with very destructive winds possible Saturday evening near the impact zone. Heavy rains are also expected in Antsiranana province and northern Toamasina province. A dangerous sea state is also expected near the impact zone. Residents are advised to follow the evolution of the forecast through their national weather service.

- After passing over the lands of northern Madagascar, the system should re-emerge on the western side in the Mozambique Channel, having lost some of its intensity. The trajectory forecast from Sunday is more uncertain and will need to be confirmed, passing more or less close to the north-west coast of Madagascar, which will determine a possible new intensification. It is still too early to specify the impacts on the north-west coast of Madagascar.

- Concerning Mayotte, a rainy and windy deterioration is expected on Sunday, but its extent remains to be quantified and will depend on the distance of the meteor's passage. The uncertainty on the trajectory at 3 days' notice is of the order of 150 to 200 km.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 994 hPa.

Position on January 10 at 04:00 local time: 14.2 South / 59.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 830 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1500 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 28 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI remained a Moderate Tropical Storm during the night and is now located a little over 900 km east of the Malagasy coast. The system is moving towards the west-northwest and is expected to intensify rapidly in the short term.

- Indeed, DIKELEDI is a small compact system encountering favorable conditions for a fairly rapid intensification over the next 48 hours. It is therefore still expected to reach the tropical cyclone stage during the day on Friday.

- The system is currently generating dangerous sea conditions over Saint-Brandon until late tonight before a clear improvement during the day on Friday and then over Tromelin between Friday and the following night.

- It then poses a serious threat to northern Madagascar from Saturday where a landfall at the stage of tropical cyclone is expected late Saturday or evening on the east coast of Antsiranana province, probably between Sambava and Antsiranana. Strong winds are expected from early Saturday afternoon, with very destructive winds possible Saturday evening near the impact zone. Heavy rains are also expected in Antsiranana province and northern Toamasina province. A dangerous sea state is also expected near the impact zone. Residents are advised to follow the evolution of the forecast through their national meteorological service.

- After passing over the lands of northern Madagascar, the system should re-emerge on the western side in the Mozambique Channel, having lost some of its intensity. The trajectory forecast from Sunday is more uncertain and will need to be confirmed, passing more or less close to the north-west coast of Madagascar, which will determine any possible further intensification. However, there is a tendency for the trajectory to move away from the Malagasy coast. It is still too early to specify the impacts on the north-west coast of Madagascar and the west coast of Mozambique.

- Concerning Mayotte, a rainy and windy deterioration is expected on Sunday, but its extent remains to be quantified and will depend directly on the distance of the meteor's passage. The uncertainty on the trajectory at 2 days' notice is of the order of a hundred kilometers.

[cycloneye]

Moderate tropical storm DIKELEDI is currently situated by points 14.2° S / 59.0° E, to 270 km north of Saint Brandon.
Gusts near the center are estimated at 120 km/h, with a minimal central pressure of 994 hPa. The system is moving west-north-west at 28 km/h.
DIKELEDI, is a compact system. It actually benefits from conditions conducive to rapid intensification for the next 48 hours. It is therefore expected to reach tropical cyclone or intense tropical cyclone status by this evening or tomorrow.
This storm poses a significant threat to northern Madagascar as from Saturday, and could also affect Mayotte subsequently, although the extent of this influence remains to be determined in real time.
For Mauritius, cloudy conditions are expected, accompanied by moderate rain and a risk of thunderstorms. Gusts could exceed 60 km/h in exposed areas. The sea will be rough, with waves reaching 2.5-3m.