EPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2025062406, , BEST, 0, 90N, 897W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, ep772025 to ep952025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep952025.dat

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore of
Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Will future Flossie be another strong TC like Erick was?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore of
Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

[cycloneye]

This one is very far south and that could help on intensity.

EP, 95, 2025062412, , BEST, 0, 89N, 901W, 30, 1008, DB

[cycloneye]

Good circulation but not covered with convection.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system later this week, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Hagen

[Kingarabian]

Good circulation but not covered with convection.

https://i.imgur.com/M7EHHrF.gif

Just needs a little bit more convection and it should be classified.

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2025062418, , BEST, 0, 90N, 907W, 30, 1008, DB

[Yellow Evan]

This is going to encounter 35-40 knots of monsoonal northeasterly shear. We’ll see what’s left of it once it dies down.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs of
organization with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system over the
next few days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala have
changed little overnight. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by
late this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Blake

[cycloneye]

This is going to encounter 35-40 knots of monsoonal northeasterly shear. We’ll see what’s left of it once it dies down.

When will the shear diminish?

[cycloneye]

There are two circulations. Will take a while to organize.

[Sciencerocks]

This is going to encounter 35-40 knots of monsoonal northeasterly shear. We’ll see what’s left of it once it dies down.

When will the shear diminish?

https://i.imgur.com/vwpO08b.gif

Probably after 96 hours. Models mainly show a 45-55 knt system....Anyways with that well defined LLC and convection managing to develop to the west. I believe it is every bit as deserving as Andrea.

[Sciencerocks]

:eek: There are two circulations. Will take a while to organize.

https://i.imgur.com/vH7a2mw.gif

The center one is by far the main one and the northern one will be absorbed into it over the next 12 hours. I've seen a ton of named tropical storms in the eastern gulf and western Caribbean look like this!

[Kingarabian]

:eek: There are two circulations. Will take a while to organize.

https://i.imgur.com/vH7a2mw.gif

The center one is by far the main one and the northern one will be absorbed into it over the next 12 hours. I've seen a ton of named tropical storms in the eastern gulf and western Caribbean look like this!

Deeper convection and the LLC is defined compared to 24 hrs ago.
But hard to give it a T# with convection that displaced from the center.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form by late this weekend
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast of
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Blake

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala have
changed little in organization during the past day or so.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form by late this weekend while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast
of Guatemala have diminished over the past day or so. However, the
low is forecast to encounter more favorable upper-level winds in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form by late this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Hagen