ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[zzzh]

AL, 96, 2025080618, , BEST, 0, 117N, 331W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al732025 to al962025,

[StormWeather]

AL, 96, 2025080618, , BEST, 0, 117N, 331W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al732025 to al962025,

Finally we can see what the hurricane models think of this system.

[cycloneye]

Organizing at a good rate.

[Nimbus]

AL, 96, 2025080618, , BEST, 0, 117N, 331W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al732025 to al962025,

Finally we can see what the hurricane models think of this system.

This is the westernmost wave that should get picked up by the digging weakness near -50W according to the GFS but its moistening the environment and will shut the recurve door for the following wave next week.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2025080700, , BEST, 0, 121N, 346W, 30, 1011, DB

[OURAGAN]

Down from 30% to 10% the next 48 hours

[cycloneye]

Down from 30% to 10% the next 48 hours

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become more conducive for gradual development in a few days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward
across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[abajan]

Down from 30% to 10% the next 48 hours

Even faster than that.

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT=No change.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become more conducive for gradual development in a few days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward
across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[abajan]

8 PM EDT (Still no change)

Central Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized shower activity. Development of this
system appears unlikely during the next day or two, but
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive in a
few days. A tropical depression could form late this weekend or
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Is moving NW at 16.6N-36.8W with little convection.

AL, 96, 2025080800, , BEST, 0, 165N, 368W, 25, 1011, LO

[cycloneye]

Down to 0/50.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing
minimal shower activity. Development of this system appears
unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air, but
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive in a
few days. A tropical depression could form during the early
or middle part of next week while the system moves northwestward to
northward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing
minimal shower activity. Development of this system appears
unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air, but
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive in a
few days. A tropical depression could form during the early
or middle part of next week while the system moves northwestward to
northward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[StormSkeptic]

Surprised no one has mentioned, but not looking too bad at the moment. Will need to see if the convestion can persist. Myabe one of those microstorms that that models miss?

[StormWeather]

Surprised no one has mentioned, but not looking too bad at the moment. Will need to see if the convestion can persist. Myabe one of those microstorms that that models miss?

Similar to Tropical Storm Keli recently in the CPAC, both could be from a ITCZ breakdown

[ScottNAtlanta]

Surprised no one has mentioned, but not looking too bad at the moment. Will need to see if the convestion can persist. Myabe one of those microstorms that that models miss?

I was gonna say it really does look like a TD right now, albeit a really small one.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are occurring in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Development
of this system appears unlikely during the next day or two due to
surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is possible during
the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
northwestward to northward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

This thread is completly dead so let's see if I can cause it to reactivate a little with this BT and the pressure.

AL, 96, 2025081018, , BEST, 0, 252N, 523W, 25, 1018, DB