WPAC: NONGFA - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

93W INVEST 250823 0600 6.5N 134.1E WPAC 15 1006

[Hayabusa]

Models show some weak development except uncle CMC showing significant development

[Hayabusa]

00z, some intense eps but weak deterministic

[Hayabusa]

PAGASA 06z upgraded to high potential development

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/252100Z-260600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 25AUG25 1200Z, TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.6N 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 251500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3N
123.5E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
251308Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF 93W, AND A CENTER OF BROAD ROTATION POSITIONED OVER OR
NEAR CATANDUANES ISLAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. PROXIMITY TO LAND AND A HIGHLY TILTED
VORTEX ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONSOLIDATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93W HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF LUZON, BEFORE CROSSING LUZON OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE SPLIT, WITH
ECENS AND GDM, FNV3 FAVORING WEAK DEVELOPMENT EAST OF LUZON, FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. GEFS
ON THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND FAVORS DEVELOPMENT ON THE
WEST SIDE OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 270000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 18N 119E WNW 10 KT.

[Hayabusa]

Back to low again

ABPW10 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/271500Z-280600ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N
116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 502 NM EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE, A 271315Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE
EMPHASIZES A MORE SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD SLOWLY BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REVEAL MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION
VERY BROAD WITH ONLY MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN 1. B. (1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

tcfa

WTPN21 PGTW 280330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 116.2E TO 16.6N 110.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 280220Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.0N 116.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
WEST OF MANILA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION,
GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A BROAD BUT
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE IMAGERY
ALSO HIGHLIGHTS UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH
WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290330Z.//
NNNN

[StormWeather]

This is now Tropical Depression 20W by the JTWC and it also has the Philippine name Jacinto.

[cycloneye]

T2514(Nongfa)
Issued at 2025/08/30 01:15 UTC
Analysis at 08/30 00 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°55′ (17.9°)
E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)