WPAC: RAGASA - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

WP, 90, 2025091606, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1375E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161000Z-170600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 16SEP25 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 123.5E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.7N 125.2E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.
1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N
137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACTING DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH TROUGHING
AND BROAD TURNING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE CIRCULATION DEVELOPMENT AND
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO WARNING
STATUS AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Nightmare scenario from Euro, tracking the storm without colliding with Luzon/Taiwan and so becomes an intense system near Hong Kong

[Hayabusa]

12Z EPS

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170200Z-170600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 16SEP25 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 162100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.0N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A RECENT 162205Z F16 SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING,
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING
AND PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT 162051Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION.ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.9N
167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, LOWER
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION, PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT 162209Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH
WITH A SWATH OF WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK, BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING MORE
INTENSIFICATION THAN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1013 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED
AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
NNNN

[Ulf]

After churning out mostly weak slops for months, WPAC might get the first super typhoon of the season with this one.

[Hayabusa]

HFSA 06z peaks it at 155 kt the first hype forecast in Wpac this year

[cycloneye]

90W INVEST 250917 1200 13.8N 135.4E WPAC 20 1008

[Hayabusa]

Latest UKMET 12Z a N.Luzon landfall but its intensity is merely a TS

[cycloneye]

12z HAFS just north of Luzón as cat 3.

[cycloneye]

Wow. The 18z HAFS-A run has cat 5 just north of Luzón.

[Hayabusa]

Hfsa 00z also 150kts

[Hayabusa]

Tcfa from JT

[cycloneye]

WTPN22 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152Z SEP 25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 180200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8N 133.5E TO 16.2N 130.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 133.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 15.3N
134.1E IS NOW LOCATED 15.8N 133.4E APPROXIMATELY 581 NM EAST NORTHEAST
OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. A 180113Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C)
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS SHOWING
THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.

[mrbagyo]

Wow. The 18z HAFS-A run has cat 5 just north of Luzón.

https://i.imgur.com/O5zWq6u.png

Still not as impressive as let's say 777 hPa

Good job HWRF...good job

[cycloneye]

06z HAFS-A more away from Luzón with the cat 5.

[Hayabusa]

06z HAFS-A more away from Luzón with the cat 5.

https://i.imgur.com/LCP2ld4.png

160-165kts peak that's the strongest run yet

[mrbagyo]

I hope this AWS stays up if 90W makes a trip over the Calayan Island.

AWS



vs


SYNOPTIC

[cycloneye]

I hope this AWS stays up if 90W makes a trip over the Calayan Island.

AWS
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bTBSO.png


vs


SYNOPTIC
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bTBSB.png

Do you have the link?