WPAC: BUALOI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 250920 1200 8.9N 145.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

This is the one Euro AI has been showing for many runs already, JMA already marked it as LPA since 06z. Depending on Neoguri's movement, like a failed recurve and then a westward track would inhibit development of this system.

[mrbagyo]

92W INVEST 250920 1200 8.9N 145.0E WPAC 15 0

Im more invested on this system - there's just more untapped energy along its projected path. Early development or destruction will also hinge on the shear induced by the outflow of Ragasa and potentially much later on by Neoguri




more than 12 hrs old scatterometer pass

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI 12Z a TS traversing north of northern Samar, then Bicol Region to Mimaropa, then just south of the capital region.

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 250920 1200 8.9N 145.0E WPAC 15 0

Im more invested on this system - there's just more untapped energy along its projected path. Early development or destruction will also hinge on the shear induced by the outflow of Ragasa and potentially much later on by Neoguri


https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bTPTu.jpg

more than 12 hrs old scatterometer pass
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bTP3S.png

If Euro AI is right it's a rather fast moving system so it could be hard to tap that potential.

[cycloneye]

Dont sleep on this invest.

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1969515105583796356

[StormWeather]

Dont sleep on this invest.

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1969515105583796356

And the next international name is Bualoi.

[Ulf]

And the next international name is Bualoi.

Another dessert name like Bebinca from last year.

Thailand has had fitting storm names like Rammasun and Atsani alongside fruit names like Durian and Mangkhut.

[StormWeather]

And the next international name is Bualoi.

Another dessert name like Bebinca from last year.

Thailand has had fitting storm names like Rammasun and Atsani alongside fruit names like Durian and Mangkhut.

Why do big storms always have to be dessert names?

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro 00z now recurves Neoguri so it now develops this to a TS

[Hayabusa]

06z eps

[dexterlabio]

The models kinda backed off from the strong typhoon scenario, but I just want to know based on the actual synoptics at this moment if the ceiling won't be that high for this potential storm.

[Hayabusa]

The models kinda backed off from the strong typhoon scenario, but I just want to know based on the actual synoptics at this moment if the ceiling won't be that high for this potential storm.

Euro AI is consistent with showing TS to STS max, it wasn't showing a typhoon, maybe GFS. Latest Euro 18z showing STS. The DeepMind AI ensemble models, the GENC and FNV3 are showing mostly typhoon to strong typhoon

[mrbagyo]

[dexterlabio]

The models kinda backed off from the strong typhoon scenario, but I just want to know based on the actual synoptics at this moment if the ceiling won't be that high for this potential storm.

Euro AI is consistent with showing TS to STS max, it wasn't showing a typhoon, maybe GFS. Latest Euro 18z showing STS. The DeepMind AI ensemble models, the GENC and FNV3 are showing mostly typhoon to strong typhoon

Also worth noting the ensembles, some are showing a pretty strong storm.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZSEP2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220152ZSEP2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 22SEP25 0000Z, SUPER TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 145 KNOTS GUSTING TO 175
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 22SEP25 0000Z, TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
29.7N 151.0E, APPROXIMATELY 367 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI
SHIMA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN33 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4N
139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 82.2 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED BROAD AREA OF
FLARING CONVECTION FEATURING MODERATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY. A 212330Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKLY
DEFINED AREA OF CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 92W WILL HAVE A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

I can see this failing to take off due to the ULL-induced wind shear. Although if the timing and environment is right, once that ULL (and also Ragasa's large outflow) goes out then this potential storm can take advantage and perhaps strengthen quickly.

[Hayabusa]

06z eps, deterministic tracker seems to be weakening it from a TS on approach to land, on other the hand the strongest ensemble initialized Ragasa at 193 kts

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 221800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 137E WNW SLOWLY.