WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

95W INVEST 260304 0600 4.9N 152.5E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N
145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC FLARING CONVECTION. A
052303Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SOME HIGHER
WINDS IN THE UPPER RIGHT QUADRANTS WITH SOME 15 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND THE AMERICAN MODELS ARE SHOWING
A MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.1N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BROAD TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE HESITANT IN THE FORMATION OF 95W WITH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING SCATTERED. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SIMILARLY SCATTERED WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING AN
ELONGATED WIND FIELD AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE MARIANAS ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 136.9E TO 13.3N 139.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 137.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
092354Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED IN FLARING CONVECTION WITH SWATHS OF ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE CIRCULATION IS CONSIDERED TOO
ILL-DEFINED TO JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C).
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON SOME DEGREE OF CONSOLIDATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A GRADUAL
TRANSIT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110300Z.//
NNNN

TD a
Issued at 2026/03/10 10:05 UTC
Analysis at 03/10 09 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°50′ (11.8°)
E137°40′ (137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[Hayabusa]

T2603(Nuri)
Issued at 2026/03/10 19:05 UTC
Analysis at 03/10 18 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°40′ (11.7°)
E138°05′ (138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NW220 km (120 NM)
SE165 km (90 NM)