A Really quiet season?

[Cyclenall]

SSTs are high (albeit not as insanely high as last year)

Actually, this is a false statement. SST's are higher this year than last.

The SST's are indeed higher in prime hurricane spots but the waters are slightly cooler then last year where hurricanes don't bomb and go crazy (East Atlantic). Some people would call your statement false for saying the SST's are higher this year but I'm not going to jump on your back because I half agree with you.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Even though the Atlantic isn't as warm as last year, the GOM and the Caribbean (both areas where the big activity is) are extremely warm which will only help feed TCs this year and recreate Katrinas, Ritas, Wilmas, Emilys, and Dennises.

[P.K.]

The anomalies are indeed down on last year. The third and fourth columns in this table cover 5-20N and 30-60W.

2005 1 26.84 0.99 26.07 0.60 28.01 0.50
2005 2 26.52 1.06 27.03 0.64 28.11 0.39
2005 3 26.63 1.18 27.42 0.52 28.53 0.42
2005 4 26.79 1.00 26.93 0.12 28.79 0.35
2005 5 27.41 1.18 25.85 -0.17 28.68 0.33
2005 6 27.82 1.19 24.41 -0.41 28.11 0.26
2005 7 28.06 1.03 23.45 -0.24 27.58 0.25
2005 8 28.46 0.92 22.98 -0.03 27.34 0.30
2005 9 28.75 0.86 22.94 -0.00 27.32 0.22
2005 10 28.57 0.72 23.34 0.05 27.57 0.26
2005 11 27.95 0.54 23.89 0.01 27.61 0.12
2005 12 27.32 0.71 24.58 -0.01 27.56 0.07
2006 1 26.38 0.54 25.41 -0.06 27.51 0.00
2006 2 25.77 0.31 26.68 0.28 27.81 0.08
2006 3 25.73 0.28 27.38 0.49 28.20 0.08
2006 4 26.23 0.44 27.18 0.36 28.56 0.12
2006 5 26.67 0.45 26.51 0.50 28.63 0.28

[Ixolib]

Nothing going on anytime soon, right? Wrong. A mere 36 hours later advisories were being released on Tropical Storm Bret.

Yep, and S2Kers were right on top of it!! But, man-o-man, some of those posts from last year at this time SURE did prove themselves wrong in short order....

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=915481#915481

[wxmann_91]

Actually, the SST's have cooled down from last year's record levels. Is it possible for a really quite season? Of course, these westerlies could end up dominating the entire season. Likely? No. But there has to be some way to balance out the insane ACE's from 2003-2005 besides reduced activity elsewhere. Conservation of Energy. The North Pole on the Atlantic side will eventually warm enough to induce an effect to lesson canes in the Atlantic. Maybe not pre-1995 levels, but maybe back to where it was in the early 2000's. And there are indicators a Nino is developing this winter; that may help.

[fasterdisaster]

Whoa!!! SSTs are higher this year!!!

Holy Crap!

[wxmann_91]

2005 SSTA on this date: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

2006 SSTA: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

Notice that though the waters up north are warm, the waters in the tropical atlantic have compensated by cooling off. You can also tell the location of the troughs/ridges. In 2005 there was a large trough in the N Ctrl Pac, now the Pac influence isn't that strong. However, you can clearly see there's a huge blocking ridge invof Newfoundland, resulting in an unfavorable eastern Atl trough. Still can change before peak though.

[kenl01]

I doubt we'll see anything EVEN CLOSE to last year. According to at least one pretty good argument I read earlier and even a statement released from Accu Weather yesterday also, SST's are significantly lower at this time than last year across the Tropical Atlantic and also the Arctic Ocean. Also, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index is much lower this year than last year, another indication of less activity expected this year.

This year was off to a relatively weak start. Alberto, which formed in early June, was relatively weak. Last year at this time, we already had Bret before the end of June. So this year already lags behind last year. Heck, we had a stronger start during the strong El-Nino summer of 1982, when 'Hurricane Alberto" formed off the SW FL coast in early June, plus another sub-tropical storm along the SE coast in mid June. At least so far, the 2006 hurricane season has not even mustered that.

[Ivan14]

It lags but not by much so far. We could see beryl very soon in the BOC. If develops before 12:00 PM tonight we would have 2 storms in June. Even though that is very unlikely that we will see beryl tonight.

[Tstormwatcher]

Ask this question again in October.

[StrongWind]

Amazing. I bet if there are "only" 27 storms and 3 landfalling cat-5's this year - people will be calling it slow and a bust.

[kenl01]

Well, we have a complete reversal from water temps on a global scale from a year ago in most areas. It's much cooler overall............

With cooler water and more troughiness in the Eastern US and Atlantic (meaning more shear), the number of storms will be much lower.

I'd say about 13 or 14 named storms at the most this year.

[Stratusxpeye]

This year was off to a relatively weak start. Alberto, which formed in early June, was relatively weak. Last year at this time, we already had Bret before the end of June. So this year already lags behind last year. Heck, we had a stronger start during the strong El-Nino summer of 1982, when 'Hurricane Alberto" formed off the SW FL coast in early June, plus another sub-tropical storm along the SE coast in mid June. At least so far, the 2006 hurricane season has not even mustered that.

I would like to know when there has ever been a prooven corolation between active begining of season and entirely active season? In fact I've only read articles that show the opposite. Usually a active begining has a very slow remainder of season. The number of storms before august has NOTHING to do with what Aug Sept and Oct will bring.

And according to those graphics above with the anomolies the only waters cooler are where huricanes would be fish or approaching the us. The gulf and eastern carrib show much higher anomolies compared to this time last year. So as a tc would approach the us it would gain strength rather than weaken. (According to the graphics above) The only way to tell what a season will be is to live through it. All signs point to an active season not inactive so we will at least have a medium season and tehres nothing wrong with that. And SST's are only 20% of the mix that goes into creating one of these monsters.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I was wondering how long before we had one of these "is the season dead" threads

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh I can't wait till someone makes one of those threads.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I mean it is June going into July people! I've seldom seen many storms before August, some active years I haven't seen even one until after July. This is normal.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Very true, but some people are not very optimistic and like to say that this season will produce no more Named storms.

[bigmoney755]

1992 had 6 named storms, yet it produced the strongest hurricane to hit the US since Camille in 1969. It was also the last Cat 5 hurricane to hit the US. By the way, Andrew did not even form into a tropical storm until August 17. Alberto formed over 2 months before Andrew. Remember, all it takes is 1 monster to make a season.

[f5]

TD 10 proved that no storm is a dud they all must be watched

[Cyclenall]

I doubt we'll see anything EVEN CLOSE to last year.

I'm thinking around 26 named storms this year. Yes, this season will be close to year in my thinking. It's not even July yet...

According to at least one pretty good argument I read earlier and even a statement released from Accu Weather yesterday also, SST's are significantly lower at this time than last year across the Tropical Atlantic and also the Arctic Ocean.

This comment bothers me. First of all, look at some of the water temps in the GOM and Caribbean. It's higher then last year! The only parts of the ocean that are cooler this year then last year are the very east Caribbean and east Atlantic, where storms don't bomb very fast. Not to mention that it's slightly cooler then last year and still above normal. So the statement about the Atlantic ocean being overall cooler may mislead people thinking this year won't be very bad at all. The GOM is hot!!

[/quote]Also, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index is much lower this year than last year, another indication of less activity expected this year.[/quote]
I have not gotten into this subject but I don't find it to be a huge factor in hurricane activity. Remember, I don't know much about this subject so I will leave it.

This year was off to a relatively weak start.

I disagree!! Are you kidding? I guess 2005 had a weak start as well and 2004 had a horrible start with no named storms.

Alberto, which formed in early June, was relatively weak.

It was the same strength as Arlene in 2005. Also, why are you saying a near hurricane strength storm is weak? That is absurd.

Last year at this time, we already had Bret before the end of June. So this year already lags behind last year.

Yah, by like 2 days I guess I have to issue a season cancel. Oh, and Beryl almost formed on June 28 or around that time. It may have even been a storm but Recon was too late. I heard rumors about that.

Heck, we had a stronger start during the strong El-Nino summer of 1982, when 'Hurricane Alberto" formed off the SW FL coast in early June, plus another sub-tropical storm along the SE coast in mid June.

Did you say that to the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season?

At least so far, the 2006 hurricane season has not even mustered that.

It has mustered enough for me to think this will be very active. One storm almost formed on June 28. It was soooo close.

So overall, I disagree with that post almost 100%.

I would like to know when there has ever been a prooven corolation between active begining of season and entirely active season? In fact I've only read articles that show the opposite. Usually a active begining has a very slow remainder of season. The number of storms before august has NOTHING to do with what Aug Sept and Oct will bring.

Exactly.

With cooler water and more troughiness in the Eastern US and Atlantic (meaning more shear), the number of storms will be much lower.

It will stay like that all season?

Well, we have a complete reversal from water temps on a global scale from a year ago in most areas. It's much cooler overall............

I have some doubts on that. I think it's normal overall this year. I have to check some links to find out. But if it is cooler overall, it's not "much" cooling but "Slightly" cooler.

Big Post for me.