INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

nice blow up right over the center now.

yes there is! I am willing to bet this is already a TS...


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I'm willing to at least bet that it's current "health" is better than that of Dean. I'm guessing the news will be all over this tonight...

Nope not even close, Dean has a cdo with banding forming. It is a very respectable system for a tropical storm already. Quickscat this morning shown 45 knot winds...It maybe 50 knots right now. I think it could be a cane if things stay favorable for the next 24 hours. This system in 91L looks like a weak closed LLC with some convection...I would still say a depression has formed. We will see what happens.

[Sanibel]

The bottom turn of the surface center is just west of the "90" mark on that loop at around 90.8W

There could be weak elongation happening.

[cpdaman]

i think people have been so quiet because td4 (now DEAN) stole the show

but dont worry soon to be td5/erin talk will pick up fast by evening

[Aric Dunn]

recon will be taking off in an hour
we will no a lot more after that, and the data will
possibly be put into the 00z model runs

[jasons2k]

You know AFM, the media will be ALL over this. We will be swamped in the Houston area of doom, dispair and agony. I wonder which will cry the loudest. I second the thanks for your insight, as well as to all the professional meteorologists on this site. You make this site the one to go to during any season.

That is exactly right. I already called my wife and told her to stock-up on baby formula and water. Not that I'm afraid of the storm's direct impact here.....I'm just afraid of the grocery stores getting cleared-out in a mad rush.

[lrak]

No one every speaks of a cyclone hitting Corpus Christi, now you guys and gals are saying possiblilty of a Cat1

[RL3AO]

No one every speaks of a cyclone hitting Corpus Christi, now you guys and gals are saying possiblilty of a Cat1

Its very very unlikely, but it is possible.

[Extremeweatherguy]

No one every speaks of a cyclone hitting Corpus Christi, now you guys and gals are saying possiblilty of a Cat1

Its very very unlikely, but it is possible.

I wouldn't say it's "very very unlikely". ATM, I would say that a strong storm having some impact on Corpus Christi is more like "quite possible". Don't panic yet though lrak, just stay tuned to storm2k for the latest and wait for the NHC to give their official word.

[Tireman4]

Then run.....ha ha. Joke. I am kidding.

[Texashawk]

You know, water temps near Galveston were 90(!) degrees yesterday. I know it was kind of a freak thing, but any chance we see a Charley-type situation out of this storm as it nears the coast??

[HouTXmetro]

EWG, keep us posted on the latest steering currents, trends and models.

[RL3AO]

You know, water temps near Galveston were 90(!) degrees yesterday. I know it was kind of a freak thing, but any chance we see a Charley-type situation out of this storm as it nears the coast??

Kinda different. Charley went from a Cat 2 hurricane to Cat 4 which is much different than going from a depression to cat 1.

[Steve]

>>You know, water temps near Galveston were 90(!) degrees yesterday. I know it was kind of a freak thing, but any chance we see a Charley-type situation out of this storm as it nears the coast??

A couple of our professional forecastsers and a couple of seasoned laymen (including yours truly) have used the Claudette 2003 analogy (I added Bret and 2005's Cindy). Based on the look of the system at this stage, it seems better than 50/50 that this will be intensifying at or near landfall. I had it up to midgrade TS which might have underdone it a little based on some possible additional time over water. I'd bet 95% this isn't going to IH levels and probably not Cat 2 (which would be the extreme evolution from what we have now with 91L). Most things are possible in the tropics, but that doesn't make them likely. Be prepared for some rainfall, winds and what you would typically need to do with at least a gale warning. I'd be mooring my boat if it was on the coast and certainly heading for higher ground tomorrow evening if I lived on the beach on the south or central TX coast or if I was in a camp in some of those lowlying swamps and coastal areas.

But mostly, follow along and watch the evolution for future clues for future storms in future seasons.



Steve

[Aric Dunn]

We should see a much larger increase in over all convection in size and coverage here soon

as the center becomes more defined and tighter.




still fairly elongated at the moment

[WindRunner]

You know, water temps near Galveston were 90(!) degrees yesterday. I know it was kind of a freak thing, but any chance we see a Charley-type situation out of this storm as it nears the coast??

No, not really. Charley hit a combination of favorable things, one of which was a relatively warm eddy from the Gulf Stream, which won't be a problem near Texas. The 90° water is only at the surface . . . most of the water below that is actually in the mid 80s or so . . . just like the rest of the Gulf.

[marcane_1973]

This system has grabbed my attention from Dean at the moment. The overall structure is looking VERY VERY GOOD. It looks like this one is going to intensify very rapidly. I really think this system has the potential to be a minimum cane before it makes landfall. Dean is taking a good amount of shear right now and does not look so hot. Looks like Dean will be waiting to come out of his shell for another 24 hrs or so. Very impressed with the latest satellite pic of this one though especially compared to what it looked like not too long ago. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[RL3AO]

That will be a beautiful view flying in from the southeast. You will probably see the convection building outside the window.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We should see a much larger increase in over all convection in size and coverage here soon

as the center becomes more defined and tighter.




still fairly elongated at the moment

Yes it is still a bit elongated, but I do see a tighter spin starting to form in that area you have circled. It probably will be drawn under the deeper convection and once that happens...it's off to the races!

[mgpetre]

I admit I was wrong about Dean, but I really was basing my assumptions on just visible and IR satellite images and hadn't paid much attention to the Quikscats or the wind analysis lately. Here's an example of the images I used to make my comment that Dean looked weaker today than yesterday:

http://matthew-petre.magix.net/userwebs ... =12&mode=p

Now that being said, I am very new to this and I appreciate everything people on here are teaching me. I will eventually be making more educated statements about these things, but in the meantime if you bear with me, I promise to learn quickly.

[Steve]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

12z NAM 36 hours. NAM is definitely tightening up the system as previously progged (FWIW of course).

Steve