Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Finally the minimum temperatures are cooling down in northern Central America though they remain above normal, yesterday (January 18 2012) the temperatures were:
-Warmer than normal lows in Belize, Guatemala (except for the higher areas), El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Near normal lows in Nicaragua and Panama.
-Near normal highs in the whole region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -1.0°C (30.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.8°C (47.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17°C (63°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24°C (75°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.1°C (97.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26°C (79°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32°C (90°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.4°C (90.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF A WEAK JET WILL PASS
WITH A TROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY. A SECOND STRONGER JET WILL
PASS WITH A TROUGH ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE MONTH.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS TO EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS LATE
NEXT WEEK. BEST MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN AIR
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A BAND OF
COOL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY FEW SHOWERS FORMED IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW...BUT
BETTER MOISTURE IS DEVELOPING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THEN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES AT LOWER LEVELS AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALL MODELS SHOW DECREASING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM12 BEING THE MOST
PRONOUNCED OF ALL. BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA IN THIS FLOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WOULD EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHER DAYS DURING THE NEXT 7 WILL ALSO SEE POSSIBLE BUT
LESS PRONOUNCED ACTIVITY THERE.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST AND EARLY
IN THE DAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHEN NEXT PATCH OF
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE EARLY MORNING BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 20/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY GUNG HO ON THE WINDS AND HAVE
LOWERED EXPECTATIONS AREA-WIDE A FEW KNOTS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN
THAT SEAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MODEL FORECASTS.
NEVERTHELESS...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ENTER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS DRIVING SEAS TO 7 FEET
AND CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 80 71 / 30 50 40 30
STT 82 71 83 73 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

It has been cool January nights so far not only in Puerto Rico,but also in the USVI and I am sure in other of the islands of the NE Caribbean.

CLIMATE...JAN 2012 SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY COOL ONE IN ST. CROIX.
THROUGH THE FIRST 19 DAYS OF THIS YEAR...THE AVERAGE TEMP HAS BEEN
74.4F. THIS REPRESENTS THE COOLEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD AT
THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT. THIS HAS BEEN GREATLY IN PART DUE TO VERY
PLEASANT AFTERNOONS WITH AN AVG MAXT OF ONLY 80.1F. WITH THE
CURRENT WX PATTERN IN PLACE OF A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE VERY END OF THIS MONTH...JAN 2012 WILL LIKELY
END IN THE TOP THREE COOLEST JANUARY`S ON RECORD IF NOT FIRST.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MINIMAL...AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES IN TOTAL CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THE NAM12 MODEL SHOWS A WET
PATTERN...WITH THE GFS BEEN THE DRIEST. SATELITE IMAGES AND
LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 21/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 79 70 80 / 70 70 30 30
STT 71 82 73 83 / 70 70 30 30

[Macrocane]

Interesting that Puerto Rico and Virgin's are cooler than normal and we have been warmer than normal in Central America although since yesterday we've finally experienced cooler lows. These are the observations registered yesterday (January 19 2012):

-Warmer than normal lows in Belize and Honduras. Near normal lows in the rest of the region.
-Near normal highs in Belize, Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama. Warmer than normal highs in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.0°C (55.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.0°C (46.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 0.0°C (32.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.1°C (64.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.7°C (98.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.4°C (45.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.0°C (64.4°F) Coldest since December 12 2011

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST SAT JAN 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS THE DOMINATING FACTOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CAUSING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OCCASIONALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED
WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE AFFECTED THE LOCAL WATERS
AND A FEW LAND AREAS TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN OF BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
NOT REFLECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STABILITY OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGE FROM 0.7 INCHES TO 1.3 INCHES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THESE
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVING
SAID THAT...THIS POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED WITH NO URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED AS A
RESULT OF THESE SHOWERS.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING EAST NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 21/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 18 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WATERS LATER TODAY AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 6
FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 71 80 70 / 50 30 30 30
STT 82 73 83 71 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST SAT JAN 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS THE DOMINATING FACTOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS CAUSING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OCCASIONALLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTINGLY...SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO...AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WAS SEEN WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB WILL DROP FROM 320K
TO NEAR 310K BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT EVEN MORE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR FUTURE...THIS DRY WEATHER
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AFFECTING THE REGION OCCASIONALLY...BUT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH NO SIG WX. SFC WNDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT
...BCMG ENE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER
22/13Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 80 70 78 / 30 30 30 30
STT 71 83 71 82 / 30 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

The quake that occurred offshore Chiapas, Mexico was felt rather strong in El Salvador, according to the USGS it was 6.2, according to the SNET it was 6.6. No damages have been reproted in Mexico, Guatemala or El Salvador. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=112425

[Macrocane]

Theese are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America, some of them are very cold (finally as it's normal for January):
-Warmer than normal lows in Belize and Nicaragua. Near normal lows in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal lows in Panama.
-Near normal highs in the whole region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -2.0°C (28.4°F) Coldest since December 4 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 6.3°C (43.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.1°C (37.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.8°C (96.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.0°C (68.0°F)

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 AM AST SUN JAN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
PATTERN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED
FROM TIME TO TIME AND THE WIND WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA...MOSTLY OVER THE WATERS BUT A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTED EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
BEEN HAPPENING THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN BRINGING
OVERNIGHT PASSING SHOWERS.

HOWEVER FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE STABLE TODAY THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT
THIS TIME...GIVEN THE DECREASED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS...THE DECREASE IN THETA-E...AND THE INCREASED
STABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SO EXPECT MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS AND THEN SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

INSTABILITY SEEMS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR...AND AN INCREASE IN THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
CAPE...K INDEX...TOTAL TOTALS...AND LIFTED INDEX AMONG OTHERS.
THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IS A
GOOD APPROXIMATION...ONCE AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.

OTHER THAN THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PATTERN OF EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN THE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE NORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH NO SIG WX. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM ENE AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 22/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...SEAS ARE LOCALLY ROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 7 FEET.
THEREFORE...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR WINDS 18 TO
21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 71 80 70 / 20 30 30 30
STT 83 71 82 69 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LINGERS FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE HEALTHY LOOKING SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A PART OF TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY...COMBINATION OF DEPARTING
TROUGH TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE
WEST SHOULD MAKE FOR RATHER SUBSIDENT PATTERN LOCALLY WITH
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND FOR AWHILE EARLY
TONIGHT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY
AN OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND
AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FA DURING MONDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY MONDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND AS PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THEN...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY...BUT STILL WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN
BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
COULD EVENTUALLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PRESENT A
MODERATE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MUNICIPALITIES. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY
ALSO...EXPECT AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER DUE TO CONTINUED BREEZY
AND OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE REMINDED TO PLEASE DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THE
PROPER RECEPTACLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 80 69 80 / 30 30 30 30
STT 71 82 69 83 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2012

.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEGMENT OF THE JET STREAM JUST OVER
THE REGION. FEW SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE
GENERALLY MINIMAL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATED
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW...INDUCING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA LATE
TOMORROW AND EARLY TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST...A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN TO THE REGION...
INDUCING AGAIN A DRY...COLD AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FA.
FEW MINIMAL CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH NO SIG WX OR OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE ENE 5-20 KTS BLO 15K FT. BCMG WESTERLY ABV 20K FT
AND INCR W/HT. SFC WNDS OVER LAND WILL BE GENERALLY ENE AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 23/14Z.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Passing showers with periods of sun will be the dominant pattern for today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST MON JAN 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
EXPAND AND MOVE EAST UNTIL IT IS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A LOW EAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MELD WITH ANOTHER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...FORMING A TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BACK
TO THE LOCAL AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE FORE-MENTIONED TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MIGRATING HIGHS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UNITED
STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING HIGHER PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND SHUNTING MIGRATING
LOWS TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. AIR FROM THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND CARRY
ALTERNATING BANDS OF MOISTURE AND DRIER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT BUT MANY MORE SHOWERS PASSED OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF
SAINT CROIX AND THE OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE RETURN OF AN OLD REMNANT BOUNDARY.
RAIN AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO OVER AN INCH...WITH
THE MOST RAIN A FEW MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX.

ANOTHER BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH ARE LIGHT AT THE
MOMENT... IS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THE NAM
SHOWS THE BEST SHOWERS ARRIVING JUST AFTER MIDDAY AND THESE SHOULD
AFFECT THE NORTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES INLAND. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MOVES THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 24/12Z. A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS DOES NOT RESOLVE THIS AS
WELL...BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THESE PATCHES WILL MOVE
THROUGH...TIMING AND INTENSITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. SHOWERS
HAVE NOT BEEN HEAVY IN THE SAN JUAN AREA AND AM NOT PLACING MUCH
PRECIP THERE...EXPECT MORE IN THE MOUNTAIN INTERIORS AND
SOUTHWEST. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD YIELD MORE SHOWERS THAN THE
PREVIOUS THREE DAYS FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER.

IN THE SOUTHWEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIMITED TO THE PASSING TROUGH. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED...BUT WILL DIMINISH EVEN
MORE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TISX AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE TERMINAL. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL NO
SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
ENE 5-20 KTS BLO 15K FT. BCMG WESTERLY ABV 20K FT AND INCRG WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL KEEP
SEAS ROUGH AND WILL REQUIRE MARINERS TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN OPEN WATERS.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT
CATEGORY...AT LEAST OVER OUTER WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 80 71 / 30 30 20 40
STT 82 69 84 72 / 40 40 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON JAN 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY SWING EAST-SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT
FAIRLY UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL
RIDE THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG AND DOMINANT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND AN INDUCED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP INDUCE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES NORTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY PUERTO RICO WHERE
CONVECTIVE LIFT DUE TO HIGHER TERRAIN IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE OF SHORT DURATION...
SOME MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE CAP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...DURING WHICH TIME
ONLY PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE 10-20 KTS WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS BLO 15K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 80 71 80 / 30 20 40 40
STT 69 84 72 83 / 40 20 40 40

[Macrocane]

Hi! These are the temperatures registered in Central America yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F) Warmest since November 21 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.1°C (35.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.9°C (48.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.8°C (67.6°F) Coldest since April 21 2011
Boquete, Panama 12.7°C (54.9°F) Coldest since December 20 2011

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Honduras, COsta Rica and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.9°C (82.2°F) Warmest since December 21 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F) Hottest since December 6 2011
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27°C (81°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.8°C (92.8°F) Warmest since November 2 2011
Boquete, Panama 20.7°C (69.3°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST TUE JAN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS FEATURE IS NOW LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND AND MOVE EAST UNTIL IT IS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTED THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY MORNING. AT THIS
MOMENT MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX.

MODELS SHOWED CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS
WELL AS A MORE STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST LEAVING US UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TNCM...AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 24/16Z. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL NO
SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE
10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS
CHOPPY AND WILL REQUIRE MARINERS TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN OPEN
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE EVEN MORE
ON WEDNESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE INCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 80 71 / 30 50 20 40
STT 84 72 83 72 / 30 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE JAN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RELOCATE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL ENERGY AND SOME FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT AS A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA AND ITS RIGHT/DIVERGENT
ENTRANCE REGION MEANDERS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHWEST PR.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IS THEN EXPECTED TO RELOCATE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH A
PWAT MINIMA AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE FCST ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS EN ROUTE AND AROUND
TIST...TISX...AND TJNR THROUGH AT LEAST 24/23Z. IN GENERAL NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS OR FLYING HAZARDS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE ENE BTW 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WND GUST TO NR 25 KTS
PSBL AT LOCAL TAF SITES DURG THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER RISK LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE
TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 80 70 79 / 50 20 40 10
STT 72 83 72 83 / 40 20 30 20

[cycloneye]

A swarm of quakes have been occuring on both coasts of the Dominican Republic in the past couple of days.Go here for more details. viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&p=2212100#p2212100

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST WED JAN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EMBED ED IN THE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OR MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BEFORE MID MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGES ARE SHOWING A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING TOWARD THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

BROAD RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
AND ACROSS THE NORTH CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
GENERATE A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY INCREASE
THE SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
TAF SITES TROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z WITH VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ....TIST AND TISX. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE ENE BTW 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WND GUST TO NR 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATE PERIOD NORTHEAST
SWELL AND AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTIONS FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AND FRESH WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 80 71 / 20 30 30 20
STT 83 72 83 72 / 10 30 30 20