Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

high surf was the order of the day yesterday in St. Maarten!

http://www.thedailyherald.com/islands/1 ... fs-up.html

[cycloneye]

The surfers have been delighted in the past couple of days with the very high surf. This was yesterday in Rincon on Western PR.



http://rinconsurfreport.com/

[msbee]

I added a few more web cams to the first post from different parts of Caribbean and Central America like more Puerto Rican beaches, St John,St Barts (Additional Cams from those places),Curacao,Copper Island,Jamaica,Cuba,Cancun and Playa del Carmen in Yucatan,so check them out.

Thanks Luis

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST WED FEB 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD...PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MID/UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN EASTERLIES ESTABLISH DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH...THE CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY...CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE MODERATE/LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST
FLOW. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN STARTS TO VEER TO THE
EAST DURING THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE REGION...A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OCCURRED
AFTER THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP
AND PWAT VALUES UNDER ONE INCH BY 12Z ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT RULED OUT THE TYPICAL
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO/USVI
AND THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLD LAYERS MAINLY BETWEEN 020-090K FEET WITH FEW
EMBEDDED PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT FLYING AREA MAINLY BTW ERN PR AND
THE VI TIL 15/23Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE FCST FOR ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL AREAS FM 1606Z/1610Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS BELOW 15K FEET THEN GRADUALLY INCR W/HT
ABV.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SUBSIDING TREND ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE RANGING BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET AT REGIONAL BUOYS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT THE SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM AST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 82 / 40 40 20 20
STT 73 83 72 84 / 40 40 20 20

[Macrocane]

Impressive surf up there!

I've updated the Central American cold surges thread with the observations from the latest event that occurred on weekend: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&start=60

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST THU FEB 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MID/UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN EASTERLIES ESTABLISH
DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON
SHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SIMILAR AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING.

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. EXPECT PARTLY TO
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH 16/22Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TJSJ...AND TJBQ IN PASSING SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...THE NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ALL PASSAGES ON TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 81 71 / 40 20 20 10
STT 82 73 83 72 / 40 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Now that the front is gone the warmer than normal lows returned to most of Central America. These are the observations from yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Near normal in Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.9°C (67.8°F) Warmest since January 13
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.3°C (45.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.2°C (52.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17°C (63°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22°C (72°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.1°C (66.4°F) COLDEST SINCE MARCH 2010
Boquete, Panama 14.5°C (58.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. Near normal in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F) Warmest since January 10 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F) The day before it registered 22.6°C (72.7°F) The Warmest since September 8 2011
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.9°C (98.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F) The day befor it registered 29°C (84°F) The warmest since December 5 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27°C (81°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34°C (93°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.3°C (73.1°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST THU FEB 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...THE MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
INTERVALS OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TERRAIN INDUCED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY
ALONG PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
OVER LAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER...A
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA SETTLES ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...THEREBY BRINGING A MORE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DRY AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY LIMITED SHOWERS ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IF ANY IN THE WEST INTERIOR SECTION OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE PSBL IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS BTWN 18Z-22Z.
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 80 70 81 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 83 72 83 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general for this weekend.Maybe a increase of some showers by Sunday. Have a nice weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST FRI FEB 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
BRINGING WITH IT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS LONG AS THIS
WIND FLOW PREVAILS...THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY...THETA-E VALUES
AT 700MB ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 330K...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN AREA OF MOISTURE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR NEXT WEEK...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
TJBQ THROUGH 17/10Z IN PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 18/12Z. EXCEPTION
MVFR CONDITIONS VCNTY TJMZ AND TJPS 18/17-18/21Z. WIND 10-15 KNOTS
EXCEPT OCNL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 72 / 30 30 30 20
STT 83 72 83 73 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST FRI FEB 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL
EROSION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT/POLAR TROUGH
EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. IN DOING SO THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL RECEDE EASTWARDS AND THUS WEAKEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS A RESULT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MORE
EASTERLY...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEAK...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATTER
PART...WHEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY SOME LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE LONG TERM...A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO SAG SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IN
DOING SO...WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR INCREASING EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THUS INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. GENERAL NE WNDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KTS BLO 15K FT BCMG
NORTHERLY AND INCR ABV. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 71 81 / 30 30 20 20
STT 72 83 73 83 / 30 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

Very warm temperatures were registered in parts of Central America yesterday (February 16 2012) although they will become more frequent as March approaches (March, April and May are the warmest months in Central America), the lows in the other han should be cooler as December, January and February are coldest months in terms of minimum temperatures.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Near normal in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (62.6°F) Warmest since November 16 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.7°C (36.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.4°C (50.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F) Warmest since December 23 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in the whole region.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.1°C (100.6°F) WARMEST SINCE JUNE 14 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F) WARMEST SINCE AUGUST 17 2011
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.2°C (52.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT FEB 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. A DRIER AIR MASS HAS
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1.0 INCH
AND THETA-E VALUES AT 700 MB ARE RUNNING AROUND 312K. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN U.S...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PROMISE
TO BRING THE CONTINUATION OF A STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...WILL BE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRIEFLY AFFECTING TJSJ AND TIST.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
18/16Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 72 / 30 20 20 10
STT 83 72 84 74 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Great weather conditions this Presidents long weekend in Puerto Rico and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SAT FEB 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OVER
TO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE WEEK AND RETURN TO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE EAST BRINGING ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITHOUT COMPLETELY ERODING THE RIDGE TO
OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
TRAILING RIDGE IT LEAVES JUST NORTH OF US WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE APPROACHED THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
KEPT SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT ONLY A VERY FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER LAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
EASTERLY AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ONLY MODEST SHOWERS IN
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL FORM. EASTWARD TRAVELING HIGH PRESSURES
MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS
THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS FLOW. ALTHOUGH COOL AIR WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO ARE EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS SCATTERED WIDELY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE ISLAND. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE MOSTLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXCEPT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IF MODELS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 18/22Z IN AND AROUND TJSJ...
TJPS AND TJMZ IN SHRA. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
19/14Z OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...BUT TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. LLVL
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NE TO ESE AFT
19/06Z.


&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS ARE BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA IN ALL
BUT THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND SEAS OF GREATER THAN 7 FEET ARE
NOT EXPECTED EVEN THERE UNTIL THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 71 81 / 20 20 10 10
STT 71 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SUN FEB 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WINDS ARE FORECASTED
LATER TODAY TO BECOME MORE FROM THE ESE.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED
EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND
DISSIPATE TODAY NOT BEFORE SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER WATERS EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM 19/16Z THROUGH ABOUT 19/22Z IN AND AROUND
TJMZ IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS UNTIL MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THEREFORE A SMALL CHOP WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE NEXT SWELL EVENT WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...THESE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 72 / 20 10 10 20
STT 84 74 84 73 / 20 20 20 10

[msbee]

Good morning everyone

Here is a new web cam showing our harbor and the cruise ships that are in.
enjoy!

http://www.st-maarten-island-guide.com/ ... harborview

[cycloneye]

Good morning everyone

Here is a new web cam showing our harbor and the cruise ships that are in.
enjoy!

http://www.st-maarten-island-guide.com/ ... harborview

Cam added to first post.Nice view of the ships.

[Macrocane]

Finally it feels like February and colder lows have been registered in Central America, they were near normal yesterday and they were colder than normal today . The temperatures experienced yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.8°C (35.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.4°C (50.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.7°C (96.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.6°C (96.1°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 12 2011
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SUN FEB 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AROUND A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOW
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...DOMINATING THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
DURING THE WEEKEND AND FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL
MIGRATE TO THE BAHAMAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND RETURN BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LAYERS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW EVEN WHILE A COLD FRONT COMES AS CLOSE AS
21 DEGREES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HINT AT BETTER MOISTURE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN
20 AND 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE OUT OF A HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW...MONDAY. A FRESH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY
TO TAKE THE PLACE OF THE FIRST HIGH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED ONE MORE BAND OF MOISTURE
ENTERING PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AND SOME SHOWERS WITH HEAVY
RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO FROM
JAYUYA TO AGUADILLA...AND FROM NAGUABO TO CATANO. STREAMERS WERE
ALSO SEEN OFF OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION
WAS REPORTED OVER THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING TRADE WINDS AND
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA AS NEAR AS 21 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT WILL LINGER AS LATE AS FRIDAY UP TO 700 MB. MODELS DO
NOT FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHEN A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 19/22Z IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ
AND TJMZ IN SHRA. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20/14Z OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK SEAS DRIVEN BY THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 71 82 / 20 20 20 20
STT 72 84 73 84 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. This week looks like it will be good weatherwise in the Eastern Caribbean,except for some passing showers that the trade winds may bring.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON FEB 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE U.S. MID
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE
SEA BREEZE CYCLE DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING
MODERATE TO FRESH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND
MAY BUILD FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO LONGER
PERIOD NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY LOOKS
ABOUT AS PERFECT IT GETS LOCALLY IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. WATER
VAPOR CONTENT IS FORECAST TO DROP TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AND H85 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING
THAT EVEN CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. NICE H925-H7
THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
INLAND. LUCKILY WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG BUT GENERALLY 10 TO
14 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH COAST...EXCEPT 14 TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. ALL OF THE SOUTH COAST IS VERY DRY
AND AT RISK OF BURNING...SO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL
ALLOW FOR EASY IGNITION OF FUELS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO. THUS...EXPECT THAT FIRE DANGER TODAY WILL BE VERY HIGH
ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 74 / 0 20 20 20
STT 84 73 84 73 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST MON FEB 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PW VALUES AROUND
OR BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BANDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TIME TO TIME...THEREFORE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. AT
LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE U.S. MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING THE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINOR SHRA OVER PR ALONG WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS TOPPING THE MOUNTAINS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY TIL 21/04Z. EXPECT
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW 5 TO 15 KT MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES UNTIL 21/12Z
FOLLOWED BY SEA BREEZES AFT 21/14Z. WINDS ALF CONTINUE NORTHERLY
BTWN 20-45 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY
AND WILL SLOWLY BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY BUILD FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO
LONGER PERIOD NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 74 82 / 10 10 20 20
STT 72 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 20