Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Unbelievable waouw!!!!

[BZSTORM]

Hi Everyone,
Well didnt expect to be considering tropical storms for another month at least until I just saw post on my FB Wall by Crown weather hinting at possible development of North Hoduras in next 7 days http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6963
I can tell you right now its HOT (most days for last week temps have been in 90's F)and humid in Belize.
Sea temps high as well, like having a hot bath out there.
Also a friend in Toledo, Punta Negra, Belize now has a weather station linked to weatherunderground.com here's the link
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... phspan=day

[cycloneye]

Hi Everyone,
Well didnt expect to be considering tropical storms for another month at least until I just saw post on my FB Wall by Crown weather hinting at possible development of North Hoduras in next 7 days http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6963
I can tell you right now its HOT (most days for last week temps have been in 90's F)and humid in Belize.
Sea temps high as well, like having a hot bath out there.
Also a friend in Toledo, Punta Negra, Belize now has a weather station linked to weatherunderground.com here's the link
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... phspan=day

Hi BZ. Yes,some models are having a development scenario for late next week in the Western Caribbean. Let's see what occurs so stay tuned.Visit the Global Models Discussion Thread at Talking Tropics forum to get the info about how things are shaping up among them.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&hilit=&p=2222506#p2222506

[BZSTORM]

Hi Everyone,
Well didnt expect to be considering tropical storms for another month at least until I just saw post on my FB Wall by Crown weather hinting at possible development of North Hoduras in next 7 days http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6963
I can tell you right now its HOT (most days for last week temps have been in 90's F)and humid in Belize.
Sea temps high as well, like having a hot bath out there.
Also a friend in Toledo, Punta Negra, Belize now has a weather station linked to weatherunderground.com here's the link
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... phspan=day

Hi BZ. Yes,some models are having a development scenario for late next week in the Western Caribbean. Let's see what occurs so stay tuned.Visit the Global Models Discussion Thread at Talking Tropics forum to get the info about how things are shaping up among them.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&hilit=&p=2222506#p2222506

thanks cycloneye.

[msbee]

Has the season started?
Just got this!

Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook
05/12/2012 01:40 PM EDT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Has the season started?
Just got this!

Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook
05/12/2012 01:40 PM EDT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Yes,early for this,but is a reminder that Hurricane Season is almost upon us and we have to be prepared for anything that may come our way.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST SAT MAY 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY...
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...TO
RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND
FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS... FOLLOWED BY
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...NAVY
GLOBAL AEROSOL FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS A SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST
PREVAILING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 12/22Z. SOME HAZINESS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS OF UP TO
5 FEET AND A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 86 77 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1025 PM AST SAT MAY 12 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS LASTED ABOUT ONE HOUR ON THE NORTH AND
SOUTH COASTS AND ARE LASTING A LITTLE LONGER OFF THE WEST COAST BUT
LITTLE IS MAKING IT INLAND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE IT INLAND OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO SIMPLY DUE TO THE PREVAILING FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUNDING TONIGHT AT 13/00Z WAS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -8.0 AND THIS EXPLAINS WHY EVEN THE SMALLER
SHOWERS HAVE GENERATED MESO-CYCLONE SIGNATURES AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
WITH CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE EAST COAST
IS STILL A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

TOMORROW SHOWERS WILL VERY LIKELY FORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN MAYAGUEZ WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY
DECREASING BUT STILL QUITE SUBSTANTIAL SO WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE MOST VIGOROUS SHOWERS FORM. HAVE KEPT
HAZE...AS SAHARAN DUST IS STILL PRESENT IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. NAAPS
PRODUCT PRODUCED IN MONTEREY SHOWS THIS AREA WILL BE FADING AND
MOVING ON. DUST WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN FROM THE SAHARA BUT THE
MODEL SHOWS IT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. I SUSPECT WE WILL
STILL NOTICE SOME WHITISH TINGE TO THE SKIES AND HILLS DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS THICK AS WE SAW
IT TODAY.

[Macrocane]

The temperatures on May 11 2012 in Centralo America.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador and Panama. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.3°C (50.5°F) Warmest since October 18 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.6°C (58.3°F) WARMEST SINCE JUNE 21 2011
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.8°C (44.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.9°C (60.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.5°C (85.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.5°C (94.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.2°C (93.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning and happy mothers day to all the moms in the Caribbean and Central America.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST SUN MAY 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE
DISSIPATES TODAY AND TOMORROW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING A LIGHT AND RELATIVELY DRY
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
MID TO UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...CONTINUES TO
MIGRATES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING FRESH TRADE WINDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
WITH A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST...A GENERALLY DRY TREND ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM
NEAR 1.85 TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER AS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE EACH DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS TO INDUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 13/12Z...MAINLY
OVER OR VCNTY OF TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX. SOME HAZINESS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. LATEST
SOUNDING AND MODELS SHOWED LLVL WINDS MAINLY FM THE EAST AT 5 TO 15
KTS. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED 13/18Z-21Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJBQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 86 77 / 30 20 20 30
STT 86 77 87 77 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN MAY 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...UNDER THE
PREVAILING WIND FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS. IN
ADDITION...A SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL BE FADING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
ABOUT 13/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10
TO 15 MPH EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS OF UP
TO 5 FEET AND A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 87 77 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good evening Caribbean and Central American friends. As you may know,the tropics may heat up early on both basins (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) You can follow what the models are showing by visiting the Global Models Discussion Thread at Talking Tropics forum. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=2222663#p2222663

[Macrocane]

Good evening. These are the temperatures registered on May 12 2012 in Central America.


Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F) Warmest since September 27 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.0°C (71.6°F) Warmest since September 4 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 19.0°C (66.2°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 27 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.4°C (50.7°F) Warmest since October 18 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.6°C (58.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.9°C (62.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Guatemala, Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Hondurasa and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.8°C (98.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.2°C (57.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.6°C (94.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.2°C (77.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Afternoon showers are expected as the diurnal heating combines with some moisture. There is still some haze in the area of the Eastern Caribbean,but as the week goes ahead,it will dissipate.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT INCREASES
UNTIL THURSDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CLOSE BY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND IT MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 30 AND
40 NORTH LATITUDE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST WHEN A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVING IN THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW HAVE
INCREASED OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY A FEW HAVE ACTUALLY MOVED OVER
LAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS BEEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT MID LEVELS.
NEVERTHELESS...GOOD SOLAR HEATING...AND A COOL POOL THAT
PERSISTS THROUGH TODAY AT 500 MB WILL LIMIT AN EROSION OF
INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS THIS WEEK AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL FUEL STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PUERTO RICO INTERIOR TODAY. THESE WILL INITIATE IN SOUTH WEST
PUERTO RICO AND LIKELY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
SOME AREAS OF THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH FLOODING OF
RIVERS. THE SITUATION WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND THE COOL POOL WARMS CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE WEEK. CONVECTION WILL THEN DEPEND MORE ON CONVERGENCE
AND SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MAY HELP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT FORECAST
DIVERGENCE BECOMES MORE ERRATIC AFTER THAT AND CANNOT BE RELIED
UPON TO FORECAST STORM STRENGTH THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CIGS AND VCSH/VCTS AT TJMZ AND LIKELY MVFR IN AND AROUND
TJPS FROM 14/17 TO 14/21Z. LATEST SOUNDING AND MODELS INDICATE
LLVL WINDS TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
WEEK...BUT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT BIAS TO THE HIGH SIDE. DUE TO THE
TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER WATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 76 87 77 / 20 20 10 20

[BZSTORM]

Macrocane yes warmer than normal for May here is Southern Belize, Old timers are even commenting on it, officially where temp buoys are located sea surface its 81F but via a number of marine tour guides I know (incl my husband) they have been commenting on how warm sea water is especially nearer the coastline and cayes, they call it bath water. Shear might be hostile enviro for potential storms right now in Carib but sea surface temps are pretty high. My husband noted while out at the cayes yesterday a double rainbow halo around sun (probably via ice crystals) not something we see very often here, in past its normally indicated we can expect some pretty wet thunderstorm weather coming our way when its been hot.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY. ASSOCIATED CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DELAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS IT. AS A RESULT... A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
OR SO WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT LOW LEVELS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT
14/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
WEEK...BUT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 20 30
STT 76 87 77 87 / 30 10 20 20

&&

[Macrocane]

Macrocane yes warmer than normal for May here is Southern Belize, Old timers are even commenting on it, officially where temp buoys are located sea surface its 81F but via a number of marine tour guides I know (incl my husband) they have been commenting on how warm sea water is especially nearer the coastline and cayes, they call it bath water. Shear might be hostile enviro for potential storms right now in Carib but sea surface temps are pretty high. My husband noted while out at the cayes yesterday a double rainbow halo around sun (probably via ice crystals) not something we see very often here, in past its normally indicated we can expect some pretty wet thunderstorm weather coming our way when its been hot.

Thanks for the info BZSTORM, it seems that by the end of the week a wetter pattern may be in place for Central America and maybe you'll get a relief from the high temps.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...WILL KEEP FORECASTS AND GRIDS GENERALLY AS IS. EXPECT
THAT THE SEVERAL SHOWERS THAT HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE BEACHES OF
WESTERN PR IN LAST HOUR WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE BY DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE LAND BREEZES. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ISOLATED OR AT BEST
SCATTERED IN THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON TUE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HELPED INITIATE THE CONVECTION TODAY...WHICH REMAINS IN A
WEAKENED FORM FOR TUE THOUGH THESE MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO
DISSIPATE IT TOO QUICKLY. LITTLE ELSE TO CHANGE AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDER IS PLACED WELL IN GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS XPTD ALL TAF SITES THRU MON XCP PSBL MVFR
DUE CIGS IN ISOLD SHRA TONIGHT EASTWARD FROM PR. AND THERE WILL BE
SOME MTN OBSCR MON AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS MAINLY EAST 15 KTS OR LESS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Normal weather is expected in PR for today with the usual afternoon showers in the interior and a few at night.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED THE
AREA AND MOVED INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND AROUND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. CURRENT GFS MODEL SHOWS
LIFTED INDEX CONTINUES TO INCREASE...BUT IS STILL RUNNING A BIT
TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE LAST SEVERAL SOUNDING VALUES OF -8.2 AND
-5.8. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY OF COOL MID LEVELS...AS
WARMER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HENCE WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING RELATIVELY STEADY AND STABILITY NOT YET INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND CENTERED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND THE ANASCO RIVER VALLEY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS TODAY AS YESTERDAY OR THE DAY BEFORE. NEVERTHELESS SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. ON
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE...BUT THE LIFTED INDEX ALSO
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS BECOMES STRONGER
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE AND FLOW WILL HELP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE LESS FAVORABLE STABILITY SOMEWHAT WITH
THE HELP OF SEA BREEZES AND CONVERGENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND REACH AN APEX ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WHEN MOISTURE REACHES A MAXIMUM. MODELS SHOW RAPIDLY DECREASING
MOISTURE AFTER SATURDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AND STABILITY
INDICES REMAIN HIGHER. SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD...ALSO INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND TAPERING OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CIGS AND VCSH/VCTS AT TJMZ AND LIKELY MVFR IN AND AROUND
TJPS FROM 15/17 TO 15/21Z. LATEST SOUNDING AND MODELS INDICATE
LLVL WINDS TO BE STILL MAINLY EASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS WEEK PARTLY
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS AT 850 MB. FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ONCE IT TURNS ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN A FEW AREAS MAY REACH 7 FEET
LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 77 / 10 20 30 30
STT 86 76 86 78 / 10 20 20 40

[BZSTORM]

todays weather discussion from BZ Met, well we had nice thunderstorm last night and this morning has cooled down the air a bit but humidity when rain stops and sun comes out for a while is reminincent of a sauna. I have to admit love the BZ Mets radar on thier website to check on storm sytems especially to watch thunderstorms approaching, and they just opgraded the 4 days forcast to thunderstorms anywhere in country of next 4 days. What seriously sucks is there is Cacoafest in Punta Gorda this weekend and I have a wedding to photograph so heavy rain is not something we need for the weekend in Southern Belize.

NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: TUESDAY 15TH MAY 2012 (MIDDAY)

SHWRS OCCURRED OVER CNTRL AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING BEFORE SPREADING INLAND.

SATPIX IMAGERY (IR) LOCATED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CELLS OVER CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING.BZE RADAR SHOWED WELL THE TRANSITION OF THE RAIN ECHOES NW-WRD FROM SRN AND COASTAL BZE TO NRN AND COASTAL BZE. WATER VAPOUR LOOP SHOWED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BZE GUATEMALA AND CNTRL AMERICA SHROUDED IN MOISTURE. SEVERAL LARGE CONVECTIVE CELLS WERE NOTED OVER AND ALONG THE EPAC COAST OF CNTRL AMERICA.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 15-12Z LOCATED A STNRY FRONT ORIENTED ALMOST NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL GULFOMEX AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SFC TROUGH WAS IDENTIFIED INLAND OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 12Z DATA SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INTER TWINING OF THE FEATURES OF THE STNRY FRONT AND THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LAND AT NICARAGUA IN THE COMING DAYS. SEEMS QUITE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR NEAR BZE TOWARDS THURSDAY. FOR THIS REASON OUR WX OUGHT TO REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY OVER THE SEA AND COASTAL AREAS. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER VERY NEAR BZE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa) LIGHT SW’LY WINDS OVER BZE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE FEATURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.

AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) W’LY TO SW’LY WINDS OVER BZE AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST. AN UPPER LVL HIGH IS CURRENTLY CNTRD OVER EL SALVADOR. PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT,

PRECIP MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST AN UPSURGE IN COASTAL RAINFALL FOR BZE IN THE COMING DAYS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL PRODUCTS AGREE ON THE INCREASE IN RAINFALL. THE GFS APPEARS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THE GFS FAVOUR 20 TO 30MM FOR CNTRL AND COASTAL BZE TODAY. THESE ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE PEAK IN RAINFALL FOR COASTAL BZE APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY..

FORECAST: CLOUDY WITH SUNNY PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW;A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN ALONG COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY MIDDY: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SEA AND COASTAL AREAS.

MARINE: WINDS: E/NE 5-15 KTS; SEAS: LIGHT CHOP - CHOPPY; WAVES: 2-4FT.

FORECASTER: F.Tench Jr.