Caribbean - Central America Weather

[chrisjslucia]

when things are grim humour can be a life saver...!!



And it is good to see you're still afloat Expat!!

[Macrocane]

I have been posting about what is going on here on the sticky thread at Active Storms/Invests forum. I can tell you that some damage has occured like small bridges collapsing due to the rising rivers and creeks,but so far no fatalitles have occured.

I forgot about the sticky thread, going to check it right now, thanks.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST FRI AUG 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH U.S.G.S SENSORS AND PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATING 5 TO 6
INCHES OVER PENUELAS...PONCE AND MAUNABO. THESE BANDS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ISSAC WHICH WAS
LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS...ALLOWING FOR GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THETA-E VALUES
AT 700MB WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS PROMISE
TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVER ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER TIST..AND
TISX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT..WHEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY. REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 89 / 50 50 40 40
STT 78 87 77 88 / 40 40 30 30

[expat2carib]

when things are grim humour can be a life saver...!!

http://i47.tinypic.com/2db5thg.png

And it is good to see you're still afloat Expat!!

Afloat and kicking Chris! Congratulations! Did Isaac spoiled your birthday? I'm confident everything is fine in the good old Rodney Bay.

[Gustywind]

We should begin to keep an eye on 97L. Even it's way to early to have an idea on this in terms of intensity and direction, looks like preliminary GFS run has it just north of the Northern Leewards. Let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

We should begin to keep an eye on 97L. Even it's way to early to have an idea on this in terms of intensity and direction, looks like preliminary GFS run has it just north of the Northern Leewards. Let's wait and see.

Yes Gusty. Now we are entering the most active part of the hurricane season and the waves that emerge Africa have to be watched. Let's see what invest 97L does in the next few days.

[Gustywind]

We should begin to keep an eye on 97L. Even it's way to early to have an idea on this in terms of intensity and direction, looks like preliminary GFS run has it just north of the Northern Leewards. Let's wait and see.

Yes Gusty. Now we are entering the most active part of the hurricane season and the waves that emerge Africa have to be watched. Let's see what invest 97L does in the next few days.

You're right Cycloneye . Any twave could be a potential player, we should not let our guard down.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

[BZSTORM]

Thinking about the people in Haiti tonight - there really hasnt been much improvement for housing the people there since the earthquake (2 yrs ago now? I think) many still living in "tents". Hoping that Isaac moves through as swiftly as possible and not strengthen much more so that it has the minimal impact on them, with their high risk for mudslides if they get 8-12" rain, they don't need a hurricane for it to become a major disaster.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A drying trend will dominate the area for the next few days and that is good to allow the rives to go down. We continue to watch invest 97L in the Eastern Atlantic.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SAT AUG 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE A TUTT LOW AND ITS
MID LEVEL REFLECTION MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FA LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAINBAND
LOCALLY...AFFECTED THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TODAY...
ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING AND
LIMITED HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...SHOULD RESULT IN
ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. THUS...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY...THE IMMEDIATE
THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING HAS
ENDED. FOR THIS REASON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED
EARLIER THIS MORNING.

IN GENERAL...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS NOW
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY ALSO. THAT
SAID...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED RE-ALIGNING TUTT...THERE WILL
PROBABLY STILL BE SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED CONVECTION AROUND
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM
TS ISSAC WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 26/00Z. SCT -SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
TJSJ 06Z RAOB SHOWED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 KTS
BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 22 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT HIGHEST TODAY ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST WATERS. PLEASE SEE SJUCWFSJU AND BELOW FOR
FORECAST DETAILS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 78 / 20 20 20 10
STT 82 82 82 77 / 20 10 10 20

[Gustywind]

Good morning
Here is a couple of webcams:
Bahamas Webcam http://www.rockybay.com/hdcam.jpg

Martinica Wecbam: Volcano "La Montagne Pelée" http://volcano.ipgp.jussieu.fr/martiniq ... latest.jpg

ST BART Webcam http://www.st-barths.com/a_cam/view1.jpg

[Gustywind]

Another webcams...

Dominica: http://www.baysider.com/frame/webcam/21 ... domcam.jpg

Grenada: Webcam at the True Blue Bay Resort:darrow:
http://webcamgrenada.com/modules/mod_we ... netcam.jpg

Grenada: Webcam at the Flamboyant Hotel, Grand Anse:
http://webcamgrenada.com/modules/mod_we ... boyant.jpg

Webcam at Grenada Olympics Committee Office in St.George :
http://webcamgrenada.com/modules/mod_we ... netcam.jpg

Grenada Yacht Club : http://webcamgrenada.com/modules/mod_we ... netcam.jpg

Webcam 1Grand Anse Beach: http://webcamgrenada.com/modules/mod_we ... achcam.jpg

Webcam 3St.Georges:
http://webcamgrenada.com/modules/mod_we ... amera3.jpg

[Gustywind]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2204

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

Jeff Masters

[Gustywind]

404
FXCA62 TJSJ 251526 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1126 AM AST SAT AUG 25 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SOUNDING SHOWED A LIFTED INDEX OF -6.2 AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.98 INCHES AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE
SOUNDERS IN BAYAMON AND SAINT CROIX. CLOUD COVER IS HERE BUT
BREAKS CAN BE SEEN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER 80S ANYWAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE GOOD MOISTURE MAY MEAN LITTLE IN SAN JUAN
WHERE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST...STILL...AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL BE FOUND
AT LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AND PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED POPS
SOMEWHAT THERE. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES ONLY AND DO AGREE THAT
EVEN THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT GENERATE AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN ONE
INCH AND THEREFORE NOT ENOUGH FOR FLOODING. MINOR TWEAKS
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST INCLUDING CORRECTIONS TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 26/16Z EXCEPT
BETWEEN 25/18-22Z WHERE MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PR INCLUDING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
LIKELY. LLVL WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 25 KTS BELOW 10 KFT BUT
SUBSIDING AFT 26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUOY 42085 HOWEVER WAS
STILL RUNNING ABOVE 6 FEET. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TODAY...BEFORE A TUTT LOW AND ITS MID LEVEL
REFLECTION MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REACHING A POSITION WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH A COUPLE OF RESURGENCES OF MOISTURE FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY ALSO.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL EFFECTS AND
AFOREMENTIONED RE-ALIGNING TUTT...WE STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
LIMITED AND LOCALIZED CONVECTION AROUND EACH DAY. INVEST AL97 WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTOSTRATUS AT FL120 WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ISOLD TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR TJBQ. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER A MID TO HIGH BKN DECK. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 20 20 20 10
STT 89 79 89 80 / 10 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of possible threat by wave in the comming days.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 50% chance of developing by Tuesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop late this week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles, arriving around September 2.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS MID LEVEL REFLECTION MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCTIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT LOW AND ITS MID LEVEL REFLECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
A DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME. THEREFORE...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS NOW MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND OFF OF
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO WITH LGT-MDT RA AND LCL VSBYS OF 5SM. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN BUT CONDS VFR XCP FOR SMALL SHRA/TSRA MOVING NE
INTO SE PR. CONDS WILL GRAD IMPROVE...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL
PASS SW OF PR ARND 27/18Z WITH MORE MID LEVEL CLDS AND SOME -RA.
LLVL WINDS BLO 15 KFT INCRG AFT 27/06Z TO ESE 10 TO 20 KT AFT 27/06Z

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 90 / 20 30 10 20
STT 81 89 81 89 / 30 30 10 20

[BZSTORM]

I was just about to log off Facebook for night and head to bed when I saw this Notice from Belize Met via Patrick Jones at Love FM (our local radio chanel)
"The Belize Weather Bureau has just placed the entire country of Belize under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING. According to the forecaster on duty, Francisca Wellington, parts of the country can expect wind gusts of up to 45 miles per hour, along with rain and possible hailstones. The SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is caused by heavy moisture in the atmosphere over Belize and feeder bands from Tropical Storm Isaac" honestly dont see anything on radar which indicates anything over the area in regard to feedbands for Isaac, but we will see, it was incredibly hot here today and had a headache for most of the afternoon (figure it was air pressure related) now its cooled down considerably. Guess we will see what the night brings.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST MON AUG 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW AND ITS LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FA AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AN INVERTED
TUTT MAY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED LOW TO
MID LEVEL REFLECTIONS AND MOIST SURGE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...A
COUPLE OF LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME LOW LYING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY ALSO. THAT SAID...WE
STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED CONVECTION AROUND
EACH DAY.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY
UNSTABLE CONDS ARE BRINGING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE PSBL AT TISX...
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJBQ AND
TJMZ. EAST TO SOUTHEAST LLVL WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL
BETWEEN THE SFC AND 15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 80 / 30 20 20 10
STT 89 81 89 79 / 50 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST MON AUG 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW AND ITS LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AN
INVERTED TUTT MAY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTED THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT
LOW WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEREFORE
EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH AT LEAST 27/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH VCSH OVER TJSJ...TISX..TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 89 / 20 20 10 10
STT 81 89 79 90 / 20 20 10 10