Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 14 2013
 
Significant Feature: Frontal system across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[tropicana]

UPDATE Thu Mar 14/13 11amET

Relief rainfall! At least for Trinidad!

An area of convergent winds (where ESE winds meet with ENE winds) have brought a band of clouds and a few showers that extend out into the Atlantic Ocean..and has brought and is bringing some rainfall to Trinidad, mainly along the hilly districts of the Northern Range. Overnight, Piarco Int Airport in Trinidad reported 4mm of rain, its largest one day rain total since early January!

Meanwhile, from Tobago and points north of this..winds are more ENE to NE winds, and dewpoints are progressively drier. Dewpoints for the last few days were in the range 13 to 14C 55-57F across the Leeward Islands ...this morning, Golden Rock St Kitts reported a dewpoint of just 12C 53F..about as low a dewpoint you can experience in the deep tropics in the Caribbean.

Sunny skies were predominant at Bridgetown Barbados this morning..at the site of an international cricket match.

Further to the west, over coastal Veneuzuela and south of Aruba...Mene Grande Venezuela on the east coast of Lake Maracaibo reported thunderstorms and 12mm of rain overnight, and 15mm at nearby Valera near to Mene Grande.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. A more moist pattern will arrive in the NE Caribbean islands by Saturday and continue at least until Monday bringing some relief to the dry spell that the Ne Caribbean islands have been going thru so far this year.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST THU MAR 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS
A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AFTER THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...ANOTHER SUBEQUATORIAL
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT LOW LEVELS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCREASING THE CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A POLAR TROUGH SUPPORTING AN COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE POLAR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN GUSTY WINDS. MODELS DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS THE
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN US VIRGIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN STALLING IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...PRODUCING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE NEXT 24 HRS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL SEE ANOTHER REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
BKN-OVC050 CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. STILL NO WX EXPECTED TIL
SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL HEIGHT AT BUOY 41043 HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 8 TO 11
FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...WE KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A DECREASING TREND STARTING THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW
AS IT BECOMES UNDER PRESSURE FROM AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. CLOUDS AGAIN WILL BE
MAIN CHALLENGE AS STRATOCU DECK IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHEAST WHICH MAY LIMIT
SOLAR RADIATION. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER STILL LOOKS PRETTY HIGH TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 0 0 20 20
STT 70 83 71 83 / 0 0 0 10

[Gustywind]

Here is a summary of the weather in Guadeloupe last year...

Weather: 2012, a year of 'normal '.

S.B. France-Antilles Guadeloupe 14.03.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 209098.php


Weather France, 2012 was a 'normal' year in terms of temperatures and rainfall accumulations. Notable precipitation in May and October have however been identified.


Each year, weather France Antilles-Guyane, publishes a climate bulletin. Therefore a comprehensive review was carried out the year 2012. A year considered to be 'normal '.

In terms of hurricanes, the 2012 season was characterized as active with 19 named phenomena (10 hurricanes and nine storms). But the Lesser Antilles have been relatively spared. The average temperatures are in standards, although weather France 'a few anomalies': in January, the minimum are a little hot on the pointoise region, as well as in March and April for the rest of the Department and in September East of Grande-Terre, La Désirade, and Northern Islands. In August, also, where highs are a little fresh especially on the pointoise region. In terms of extremes (in plain): it was 35.5 ° 16 September to the mould and 16.8 ° 20 February Vasudevan/Sainte-Rose.

At the level of rainfall, "the positions of our islands are close overlapping of their respective normal values. The year is still called heterogeneous with extremely dry June and September unlike may, July and October, which have important rollups.

INFLUENCE OF THE RAFAEL STORM

We note also that some months, rollups are concentrated on only a few days. This has been the case with most of the rainfall between 13 and 21 in April and in July with rain over two days, 29 and 30. An exceptional episode was noted this famous 7 May which focused on him alone, the bulk of the rainy month and caused the memorable floods: an hour to le Raizet 79.9 mm, this is a new absolute record for hourly rain. The previous dates back to September 1, 1972, with 77 mm. Similarly it sets new record 2 hours (144 mm 89 mm of Hurricane Klaus 10/7/90), 3 hours (178 mm against hurricane Lenny 17 3 mm) and 6 hours (203 mm against hurricane Lenny 198 mm). Other notable precipitation marked the year 2012. It was in October under the influence of the storm tropical Rafael. The first 18 days are rainy, locally exceptionally rainy 12-13 under the influence of the storm. Weather France thus noted 1242 mm a month and 358 mm the 13th of the month. This beats the previous record of October 1998 (1174 mm monthly and 343 mm October 20). November is then ranked among the driest month of November since 1951 as the month of December, which was sometimes severe deficiency in rainfall.

The sunshine is normal (1981-2010) on the year. But the distribution of the monthly periods is rather peculiar. In January, in February, especially in June, September, October and November, the durations of sunshine are good surplus. This despite the relatively frequent occurrence of mists (or sails) sands. On the other hand, the rest of the months of the year, the Sun has more did desire.

[Macrocane]

Tuesday March 12, 2013 was very hot in Central America (although not as hot as previous days), a new cold front approached the region but only Belize had effects on this day. The observations:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.6°C (38.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23.4°C (74.1°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 12.0°C (53.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 25.5°C (77.9°F) Warmest since May 3, 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.4°C (41.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 25.8°C (78.4°F) Warmest since January 10, 2013
Panama city, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.0°C (59.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.5°C (79.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32.8°C (91.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.1°C (91.6°F) HOTTEST SINCE APRIL 9, 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.2°C (102.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 39°C (102°F) HOTTEST SINCE APRIL 10, 2012
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F)

[Macrocane]

The temperatures on March 13, 2013 were a little cooler in Central America because of a new cold front that reached the region, even the highs experienced a cool down in most of the locations. The observations:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.8°C (40.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23.0°C (73.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 10.7°C (51.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F) Warmest since January 11, 2013
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.6°C (42.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29.5°C (85.1°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.9°C (60.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.2°C (52.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. An increase in moisture will occur starting on Saturday night as a weak front moves thru and becomes stationary bringing scattered showers thru Tuesday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI MAR 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...FLOW WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE LINE MOVES
INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND TOMORROW AND HOLD A WESTERLY JET
NEAR 25 DEGREES NORTH NORTH OF THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SAME AREA
LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCREASING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR ALSO RETURNS ON MONDAY BUT BETTER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST-WEST. MOISTURE FROM THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST DISPLACES IT ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM
THE EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW CLOUDS TRIED TO BUILD BACK IN NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE
INVERSION AT 850 MB...BUT SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE SHEAR LINE HAS
ERODED THE LAYER FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND IT IS NOW NEARLY
CLEAR OVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO APPEAR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
MARINE ZONES TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO
ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. THE GFS AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOW MOISTURE AT
850 MB AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER RESPECTIVELY WEAKENING AS THE
SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE AMOUNTS WILL
AGAIN BE LIGHT AND SOME AREAS WILL AGAIN BE MISSED. MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT STALLS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS
SHOWS THE ACTUAL SHEAR LINE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA ONCE IT HAS
PASSED. EASTWARD BOUND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
SHOVES DRIER AIR ON NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT
IT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY THAT
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES FURTHER
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE ACCOMPANYING JET STREAM ALSO
REMAINS FARTHER NORTH. NEXT WEEKEND WILL HAVE A DRY START IF
TIMING HOLDS IN THE GFS MODEL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THRU TONITE AND NO
SHRA. SCT-BKN FL050-060 CLRG E HAS PASSED TJPS AND REACHING TJSJ
ATTM...TO REACH TIST ABT 15Z. LLVL WIND E-ENE TO 10 KT UP TO FL050
THEN SW TO FL150. NE WIND TO DEEPEN TO FL100 BY EVE BUT STILL 10
KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AT BUOY 41043. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN UNTIL 2 PM AST WHEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 7 FEET. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NOON AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SINCE 7 FOOT SEAS ARE COMING IN AT 13-14
SECONDS...CAUSING BREAKERS OF 10 TO 13 FEET FOR NOW. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN
ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE RE-
POSTED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 73 / 0 0 0 30
STT 82 72 84 74 / 0 0 0 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 15 2013
 
Significant Feature: Cold front across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy .

Afternoon:  Expect cool and windy conditions with occasional showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 22C (71F)
 


[cycloneye]

Yes!! Finnally for a change Puerto Rico will have rain starting on Saturday and lasting for most of next week. The rain has been absent for almost two weeks.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI MAR 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS A POLAR
TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A BROAD RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND
AND GRADUALLY DECAY TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY...INCREASING THE
CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC IS PUSHING A JET ALOFT...WHICH IS KEEPING STREAMING
HIGH CLOUDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BELOW THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS...A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS IS STILL PRESENT AT LOW TO MID LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUSTAINING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...
LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST NORTHWEST OF HAITI. THE PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WELL DEFINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NORTHEASTWARD UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN STALLING IT OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN USVI THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...
PRODUCING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CLOUDINESS
AND LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...NO WX NEXT 12-18 HRS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE AREA WITH CIGS
BCMG BKN040. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE ENE AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A MODERATE TO LARGE NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER NORTH FACING COASTS. COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER WATERS EXPOSED TO THIS INCREASING SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT
MORNING AND CLOUDS THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN A SIG
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BREAK OUT BUT THEY STILL ARE
LIKELY TO BE ISOLD TO SCT AT BEST WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN BUT IS DEFINITELY SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM PAST
SVRL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 84 / 0 20 40 40
STT 73 84 73 84 / 0 10 30 40

[Macrocane]

It has been the coldest start to March I can remember with 3 cold fronts in a row since the very first day of the month, the highs are well below normal from Belize to Costa Rica, and the lows are slightly below normal from Belize to Nicaragua. Here you can see a picture of the cold front reaching Honduras yesterday:



And the temperatures registered on March 14, 2013

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.1°C (55.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.6°C (45.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21.4°C (70.5°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 9.1°C (48.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29.0°C (84.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.4°C (50.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.9°C (93.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.4°C (90.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some scattered showers will fall in the NE Caribbean in the next few days as a weak front will be stationary as it dissippates.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST SAT MAR 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
WITH A 135 KNOT JET THAT DROPS DOWN TO 25 DEGREES NORTH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL THE RIDGE PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THURSDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...AFTER A TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS NOTED
UNTIL THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS ARE STRONGER BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS AND STALL...BEFORE
DISSIPATING MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH TO KEEP
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSED...AND ALTHOUGH THEY MOVED ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO ONLY
TRACE AMOUNTS WERE SEEN. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT GFS AND MIMIC SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT IS
MOSTLY DRY WHERE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER
CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE SEEN MONDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WHERE THEY ARE MEASURABLE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND MAINTAINS THE TRADE WINDS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE DRIER AIR SEEN
ENTERING THE AREA MID WEEK IN THE PREVIOUS DAY`S SOLUTION...IS NOT
SEEN IN THE 16/00Z RUN OF THE GFS...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
APPEARS TO END OR WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY. SOME MOISTURE
IS SEEN UP TO 500 MB AFTER 22/00Z POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU AT LEAST 16/18Z. ISOLD/SCT SHRA TO SPREAD S OVR LCL
ISLANDS IN AFTERNOON/TONITE BUT RESULTING MVFR IN CIG/VSBY TO BE
BRIEF. LLVL WIND TO FL100 NE 8-18 KT THRU TONIGHT BCMG W ABV FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT THE OUTER BUOY...41043...ON
SUNDAY AROUND DAWN AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 FEET OR MORE IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE DUE TO
GO UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND OVER THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BEFORE
WHICH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN MOST WATERS EXPOSED
TO NORTHEAST SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 20 40 40 30
STT 84 73 84 74 / 10 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 16 2013
 
Significant Feature: Frontal trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Expect partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers mainly over eastern and central parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SAT MAR 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS
PUSHING A STRONG JET ALOFT JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND GRADUALLY DECAY TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...A DECAYING COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED A LOW TO MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO. THE WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN STALL
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...ALLOWING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...PRODUCING
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERALL...
IN ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO GENERALLY
FAVOR LIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU AT LEAST 17/00Z. HOWEVER
SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LVL CLDS LYRS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
ACCOMPANYING A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL DRIFT
FURTHER SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING AN INCR IN LOW TO MID
LVL CLOUDINESS W/FEW-SCT PASSING -SHRA DURG REST OF EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WND BLO FL150 WILL CONT FM NE BTW 10-15 KTS...THEN BACK
AND BCMG WESTERLY WHILE INCR W/HT TO WND MAX AROUND 65 KTS NR
FL350.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SURF HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER NORTH FACING COASTS...SO WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY THE
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATION...IN CASE OF WE NEED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS AND FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS WILL GO IN EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING EXCEPT THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 40 40 40 50
STT 73 84 73 84 / 30 30 40 40

[tropicana]

UPDATE Sat Mar 16/13 730pmET

Generally fair and sunny conditions continued to prevail throughout the region with high level cloudiness (cirrus). The exception continued to be near to Trinidad and Tobago where a few more low and mid level cloudiness created a dull look at times, but rainfall was brief and isolated under those clouds. At Crown Point Tobago, 2 mm of rain fell.

No other island reported any rainfall of consequence. In fact, the drier air has now reached as far south as Trinidad and Tobago with dewpoints 20-21C 68-70F. Dewpoints were recorded at 18C 65F in Barbados and St Lucia, 17C 63F at Dominica, 15C 59F at St Kitts, 14C 57F in Guadeloupe and 13C 55F in Antigua.
Generally speaking, dewpoints in the 60sFarenheit are considered comfortable in the Caribbean, and in the 50sF which is more rare, just ideal.

A 1022mb western Atlantic HIGH pressure just north of the Greater Antilles will begin re-establishing itself and it's effects will be felt throughout the chain, with mainly sunny weather on Sunday. A cold front is approaching Puerto Rico, but it is weak...and this system will stall and weaken in this region early next week. Could still generate a few showers.

The waxing crescent moon, which is 25% illuminated, has just risen within the last hour across the Eastern Caribbean. The rainfall for March is continuing to be quite concerning for some spots in the Caribbean... for the first 16 days..rainfall totals so far:- Piarco Int Airport Trinidad 8.6mm, Grantley Adams Barbados NIL, Rockley S Barbados 2.3mm, Hewannora Airport St Lucia 1.6mm, Vigie St Lucia 0.7mm, Canefield Airport Dominica 0.3mm, Melville Hall Dominica 13.3mm, West End Anguilla 8.1mm, VC Bird Antigua 22.0mm, San Juan PR 24.6mm.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will continue to move thru PR/USVI and northern Leewards for the next couple of days as the front stalls.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SUN MAR 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A STRONG JET OF 90 TO 115 KNOTS
CONTINUES 400 TO 600 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR GIVES WAY TO SOME MOISTURE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. A BAND OF MOISTURE BEHIND A RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE SMALL BUT NUMEROUS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
ALSO NOTED NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. COVERAGE WAS BEST IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS CULEBRA TO
THE SOUTH COAST OF YABUCOA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN THE INTERIOR PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
STALLS OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE GFS SHOWED THE BEST MOISTURE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT ON AND OFF
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE ISLAND. AMOUNTS...
HOWEVER...WILL BE LIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL NOT BRING BACK THE
DRY AIR TO THE NORTH SO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SECOND FRONT APPROACHING
LATE IN THE MONTH WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE DISSIPATING BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONT. MOST SHRA MOVG ONSHORE ATTM ARE NOT REDUCING
CIG/VSBY BELOW VFR BUT WILL LIKELY DO SO MORE OFTEN BY TONIGHT.
WINDS BELOW FL150 CONTINUE NE 12-22 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE JUST UNDER 7 FEET IN THE FORECAST AREA AND
RECENTLY ABOVE 7 FEET AT BUOY 41043. MODELS WERE RUNNING AS MUCH
AS 0.9 METERS TOO HIGH...BUT DO INDICATE INCREASING SWELL THROUGH
THE DAY. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. LOWER
PERIODS SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT ISOLATED BREAKING WAVES OF 10 FEET
OR MORE...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 73 / 70 70 70 50
STT 83 74 84 74 / 50 60 60 40

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 17 2013
 
Significant Feature: Frontal trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Mainly fair except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

Some showers will move thru the NE Caribbean for most of this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN MAR 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A BAND OF
DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NEAR NORMAL PWAT
VALUES OF 1.2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED IN TJSJ SOUNDING AND THE GPS
SOUNDER DATA LOCATED IN BAYAMON PR. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPED
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT STILL APPEARS WEAK...
SO EXPECTING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE REST OF TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE BAND WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL FAVOR PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LOOKS LIKE THE SAME PATTERN WILL
REMAIN MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS FAVORING
THE WINDWARD AREAS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS. THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE IN THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLYING AREA...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ANTICIPATED DURG THE
PRD. ISOLD-SCT PASSING -SHRA WITH SCT-BKN CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW
FL020-FL070 AND FEW TCU MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS AND NR
NRN COASTLINES OF PR AND NRN VI. GENERAL L/LVL WIND FLOW FM THE NE
BTW 10-20 KTS THEN BACKING AND INCR/W/HT BCMG WESTERLY ABV FL150
WITH WND MAX OF 60-70 KTS NR FL350.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUED FOR OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE
TO THE BUILDING NORTHERLY SWELL. HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. THIS MODERATE SWELL MAY BRING ELEVATED SURF
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS AND OCCASIONAL RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 83 / 40 40 50 50
STT 74 84 74 84 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands for most of this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST MON MAR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER VIEQUES AN
CULEBRA. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WERE
OBSERVED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST SJU-GFS 18/00Z GUIDANCE INDICATED A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT. ISOLD/SCT SH RA MAY REDUCE CIG/VSBY BRIEFLY AND
A FEW MTN OBSC IN AFTERNOON. WIND BLO FL100 E 12-22 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT AS SEAS OF 7
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 23 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 74 / 40 50 50 30
STT 84 74 84 74 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 18 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:   Partly cloudy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST MON MAR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SLOWLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION PULLED FURTHER EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
LOOSEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULL
FURTHER EAST AND RELAXES ITS HOLD. IN THE MEANTIME...THIS PATTERN
HAS CREATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WAS
HELPING THE MODERATE EASTERLIES TO TRANSPORT PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE LOCAL
CONDITIONS PROVIDING A SUBSIDENT/CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT. THIS
WILL THEREFORE SUPPRESS/LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING POLAR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN AND MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES...STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO AID IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECTED THIS WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL DIMINISHING IN MOISTURE
IS FORECAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER EASTWARDS AND LOOSENS
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. OVERALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LIMITED
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. LESSER MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND PASSING -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL THE TERMINAL EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
NEAR PASSING -SHRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE
AT AROUND 20 KT BTWN SFC TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41053 IN SAN JUAN AS WELL AS 41043...FLUCTUATED
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET AS NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE. AS A
RESULT... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MARINE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
THAT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 73 84 / 50 50 30 30
STT 74 85 74 84 / 50 50 40 40