ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[tolakram]

Most recent saved IR loop

[MaineWeatherNut]

The storm is continuing to develop with burst of vigorous convection near the center of TD.

lol You mean TS?

I don't see a formed cyclone as it appears now. Wind will need strengthen a lot
more and its quite possible it will but until then its nothing more than RAIN event.


Cheers

umm... Are you going against the NHC who officially upgraded it? I think they would know more about the situation then most people on this forum... It certainly looks like a strengthening Tropical Cyclone to me...

[Zanthe]

DEEP convection has taken over as we head closer to DMAX. Remember, this isn't a major hurricane that won't have fluctuations because of DMIN and DMAX. We probably were just at DMIN. We'll see what happens though.

[MaineWeatherNut]

DEEP convection has taken over as we head closer to DMAX. Remember, this isn't a major hurricane that won't have fluctuations because of DMIN and DMAX. We probably were just at DMIN. We'll see what happens though.

Yeah and all of the deep convection north east is now gone. The Deepest convection is now associated with Gabrielle which is the way it should be!

[Riptide]

DEEP convection has taken over as we head closer to DMAX. Remember, this isn't a major hurricane that won't have fluctuations because of DMIN and DMAX. We probably were just at DMIN. We'll see what happens though.

Yeah and all of the deep convection north east is now gone. The Deepest convection is now associated with Gabrielle which is the way it should be!

Puerto Rico radar indicates a more organized circulation, it's becoming apparent which system has won the battle.

[MaineWeatherNut]

DEEP convection has taken over as we head closer to DMAX. Remember, this isn't a major hurricane that won't have fluctuations because of DMIN and DMAX. We probably were just at DMIN. We'll see what happens though.

Yeah and all of the deep convection north east is now gone. The Deepest convection is now associated with Gabrielle which is the way it should be!

Puerto Rico radar indicates a more organized circulation, it's becoming apparent which system has won the battle.

yup that's for sure. She still has a ways to go but certainly not looking like she's dying like some were saying not too long ago.

EDIT: Looking at Radar Coastal PR should be getting hammered with some pretty good bands in the next hour or so.

[hurricaneCW]

I think it was pretty obvious Gabrielle was going to win the battle given the stuff to its NE had no circulation whatsoever. Convection fires on and off all the time in the tropics, but only a true storm can maintain it on a regular basis like Gabby is doing.

[HurriGuy]

The moisture has really ramped up on the radar. Looking at radar, it still suggest that the center is out of range?

[ScottNAtlanta]

The only fly in the ointment is that pressures have not fallen. I've checked all the reporting stations in the vicinity and they are all in the 1010mb range...not exactly the kind of pressure you'd see with a deepening TS

[beoumont]

It is quite interesting that you can see both the mid level center and low level center on the radar. This still shot shows them well, as well as the loop on the previous page of this forum; the low level center SW of the mid level. I would think the mid-level center is just to the west of the blue spot; the low level in the middle of the lighter-colored yellow ring. Neato!

[Riptide]

I cannot locate any buoys directly or within 50 miles of the center; one station in SE Puerto Rico has a reading of 1003mb; probably faulty since it is a PWS and does not match surrounding stations.

[JtSmarts]

Huge blow up of convection as Gabby continues to the absorb the adjacent wave.

[NDG]

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 66.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[NDG]

Hopefully the recon will give us a better picture where Gabrielle's surface COC is because where they place her COC is free of deep convection, most of the convection is east of the MLC.

[Gustywind]

Let's hope that Cycloneye is ok because of the worst of the rain should begin to spread in a hurry this morning if the weather forecast is confirmed..

[Cyclenall]

Let's hope that Cycloneye is ok because of the worst of the rain should begin to spread in a hurry this morning if the weather forecast is confirmed..

Can you imagine a scenario where he is not ok for this TS? I can't, unless he wanted to take a swim or go near some mud-slide prone areas and wait. Plus he is online currently so power is not lost most likely .

So Cycloneye how hard is it raining right now?

[Gustywind]

Let's hope that Cycloneye is ok because of the worst of the rain should begin to spread in a hurry this morning if the weather forecast is confirmed..

Can you imagine a scenario where he is not ok for this TS? I can't, unless he wanted to take a swim or go near some mud-slide prone areas and wait. Plus he is online currently so power is not lost most likely .

So Cycloneye how hard is it raining right now?

In the tropics, you never know a suddent poweroutage could occur ,etc. Things can turn quickly. I never see that is online, maybe you, not me. If he has power that's good news he will try to keep us informed.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forms - Puerto Rico, Hispaniola Flood Threat

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... e-20130829


Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed Wednesday night in the eastern Caribbean Sea, southeast of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Gabrielle will continue to move northwest over the next few days, with the center tracking near western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic Thursday into early Friday.

In the near term, heavy rain, flash flooding and mudslides are the greatest concerns from this system in parts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola (the Dominican Republic, in particular). Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are possible over the next few days across an area that's already two feet above average for year-to-date rainfall.

Later Friday into the weekend, Gabrielle will move away from the northeast Caribbean islands and make a gradual turn toward the north and northeast. This should keep the center of Gabrielle to the east of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. That said, these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. Early next week, Gabrielle could pass close to Bermuda.

At this time, Gabrielle does not appear to be a threat to the United States.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 05 2013

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
GABRIELLE AT 05/0300 UTC. TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED
NEAR 17.3N 66.8W AT 05/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 45 NM S-SW OF PONCE
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 120 NM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-
67W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.