ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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Airboy
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#1501 Postby Airboy » Sat Sep 07, 2013 7:40 am

Some convection over that LLC and it could be back again.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1502 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 7:57 am

12z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2013090712, , BEST, 0, 228N, 692W, 25, 1009, LO
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#1503 Postby lilybeth » Sat Sep 07, 2013 8:09 am

Thank you for the pic, Gatorcane. It looks good in that photo to me. Better than it has in a while anyway. But that is coming from my opinion, and I am no expert, of course!
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1504 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 07, 2013 8:39 am

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2013090712, , BEST, 0, 228N, 692W, 25, 1009, LO


Based on the latest best track the COC is well displaced from the deep convection, but I don't even see a well defined LLC by those coordinates, is more like a broad weak circulation is all is left not as defined as yesterday morning.
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#1505 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 07, 2013 8:47 am

If there is a LLC left at all, it is well displaced as all of the deep convection is to the east.Don't see this regenerating any time soon.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1506 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:02 am

Agree. Shear is pounding it right now. Like the discussion says not going to do anything til it starts moving ne out ahead of the front and the strong sw upper level winds.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1507 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:02 am

Latest Saved Loop:

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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1508 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:06 am

Still strong enough to make red IR.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1509 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:30 am

GFS continues to advertise that a piece of vorticity will split off and retrograde west toward FL this upcoming weekend. Might get interesting toward the end of next week.
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#1510 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:52 am

Is recon still flying into this system today? It's not mentioned in the TWO...
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#1511 Postby crownweather » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:53 am

SeGaBob wrote:Is recon still flying into this system today? It's not mentioned in the TWO...


Yes. From Twitter:

HRD/AOML/NOAA 10:50 AM
#NOAA43 aircraft ready for take off from St. Croix. We are flying into the remnants of #Gabrielle.
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Re: Re:

#1512 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:55 am

crownweather wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:Is recon still flying into this system today? It's not mentioned in the TWO...


Yes. From Twitter:

HRD/AOML/NOAA 10:50 AM
#NOAA43 aircraft ready for take off from St. Croix. We are flying into the remnants of #Gabrielle.



Thanks for your reply. :)
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1513 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 10:30 am

Starting to wrap around the center at 23.3N & 69W

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#1514 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 07, 2013 10:32 am

It's trying to re-develop...but failing :D
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1515 Postby MGC » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:11 am

Too much shear....looks like the entire western basin has shear.....MGC
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#1516 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:20 am

I'm thinking the recon finds a LLC today but it will probably be too displaced from the convection to restart advisories... :(



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#1517 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:28 am

Multiple swirls with it.. but the main one appears to be well west of the convection just ene of the turks and caicos.. and drifting..
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1518 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:42 am

Having Jeanne flashback from 2004.....she had some high shear that almost exposed her LLC at one point. At that time I told the board she was dead....well the rest is history....
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1519 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:50 pm

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...CENTERED
ROUGHLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1520 Postby blp » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:06 pm

A little broad but looks closed to me.

Image
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