Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
901 PM AST SAT NOV 16 2013

.UPDATE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WILL RANGE
BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS TO HALF-INCH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS VERIFIES...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID-
MORNING SUNDAY. ATTM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION. BASICALLY...THE ONLY CHANGE WAS EXTENDED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN LOW-MID LEVEL CLD LYRS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BTW FL020-FL100 WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FROM TIME TO TIME...PASSING
SHRA WILL AFFECT THE F/A TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE
EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TJNR AND TJBQ ... AS
WELL AS TIST AND TISX. LOW/LVL WNDS WILL BE FM N-NE AT 10-15 KTS BLO
FL100...INCR AND VEERING W/HT ABV. BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR WILL BE PSBL
AFT 17/06Z OVR PARTS OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL PR DUE TO PASSING SHRA
AND LOW/LVL SCUD CLDS.


&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE PUERTO RICO...WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE LARGE WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THESE LARGE WAVES WILL REACH
THE NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 7 TO 9 FEET AT 10 TO 12
SECONDS. LATEST MARINE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS OF
7 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH FACING COASTLINE OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Cooler temperatures with a few showers are expected today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH TUE THEN LIFT OUT TO THE
NNE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK CDFNT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
DEEP DRY AIR MASS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS WAKE. AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVR THE CNTRL ATLC...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TUMBLE
TONIGHT WITH COOL UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTING IN QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
CORDILLERA ON DEEP NNE FLOW.

DEEP CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISING SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND AND MOISTURE RECOVERY
WED-FRI WITH SCT TRADE SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FCST TO CUTOFF
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS NOT LIKELY
TO BE AS COOL AS THIS ONE. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WITH THIS
SECOND TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT RETURN AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH SECONDARY SHOT OF COOL AIR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
JSJ...USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTS AT IST
EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS SFC-FL020 NNE 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NNE TO NE SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 20 30 10 20
STT 86 75 85 74 / 20 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
DROP TO NEAR 1.0 INCHES TUESDAY MORNING. VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS AS
WINDS SHIFTS MORE EASTERLY AND EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BRINGS MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AT HIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY PASSING -SHRA WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
DURING THE FORECAST PERIODS WITHOUT ANY WEATHER FLYING HAZARD
EXPECTED. LOW/LVL WNDS WILL BE FM N-NE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...AS 2 PM AST...BOUY 41115 IN RIANON IS SHOWING 7 FEET WITH
PERIOD OF AROUND 11 SECONDS AND BUOY 41053 IN SAN JUAN WAS SHOWING
AROUND 6.5 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 73 83 / 30 10 20 10
STT 74 86 74 85 / 20 10 20 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
924 PM AST SUN NOV 17 2013

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW PATCHES OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT TO MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS. LATEST
TJSJ 18/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED SHALLOW MOISTURE WEDGED
BETWEEN 950 AND 800 MILLIBARS AND MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND BACKING WHILE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT TO A MAX WIND OF AROUND 60 KNOTS NEAR 250 MILLIBARS.
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PULLS FURTHER NORTHWARDS AND LOCAL WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND FEW SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...AS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND PLEASANT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE PERIODS OF POSSIBLE BREAKING WAVE OF AT LEAST 10
FEET AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WITHING THE SURF ZONE.

[Macrocane]

The first cold surge of the season arrived to Central America in the first week of November, 3 weeks later than usual. Here's the update on that event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2357582#p2357582

The second one has just ended, I will have the observations in the upcoming days.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. After a few morning showers the weather will improve in PR and VI in the afternoon.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST MON NOV 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH TUE THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOLID LYR OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS COVERS MOST OF PR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT -SHRA AFFECTING THE NRN HALF OF
PR...USVI AND ADJACENT WATERS IN A COOL AND UNSTABLE NE FLOW. MUCH
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AFTER 12Z TODAY LEADING
TO A PLEASANT AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUE WITH WIDESPREAD 60S AND EVEN SOME 50S WELL INLAND
TONIGHT.

AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY WED AS SFC WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WED-THU AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA MAINLY ERN PR...ST
CROIX AND CARIB COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY WX.

&&

.AVIATION...SC CLOUDS AND -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING
AREA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS...AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLE AT
TJSJ...USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU 18/12Z. THEN VFR WITH
CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...NO BUOY REPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT 9 FT LAST
REPORTED AT BUOY 41043 AT 07Z. IT IS ASSUMED THAT A NEW PULSE OF
8-10 FT NE SWELLS SHOULD REACH THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH ANOTHER ONE TUE NIGHT OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE POSSIBLY
AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PERIOD. BASED ON THIS WILL EXTEND HIGH SURF
THRU TUE. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 83 74 / 0 20 0 0
STT 86 74 85 75 / 10 20 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...IN COMBINATION WITH THE NEWLY FORMED SUBTROPICAL STORM
MELISSA...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST AREA REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO DOMINATES
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WINDS HAVE CONTINUED FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MOST OF THE
DAY...BRINGING WITH IT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...AS SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA MOVES FARTHER
NORTH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE EAST AND EAST
SOUTHEAST MID WEEK. THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING A
LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..AT THIS TIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. CLOUDINESS AND VCSH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
AFT INTO EVE...MAINLY AT TJSJ...TJBQ...USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS.
WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL PREVAIL AT AROUND 5 TO 15
KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET
HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. BUOY 41053 IN
SAN JUAN SHOWED WAVE HEIGHTS OF NEAR 9 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SLIGHT DECREASE TO NEAR 7
FEET. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PULSE OF WAVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TO THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEWLY FORMED SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA...WHICH IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 84 / 20 0 0 20
STT 74 86 75 85 / 20 0 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

.UPDATE...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
MOVED INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTER SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT...AS THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICK.

THERE WERE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...RAISED THE POPS AND
INCREASED FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION THU NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROKEN STRATOCU AND -SHRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTH COAST UNDER A COOL AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT THESE WILL CEASE AFTER 12Z TODAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
AS SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY
DRY AND PLEASANT TODAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY VERY LIGHT
SHRAS MAINLY ACROSS SW PR. AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY WED WITH
WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WED-THU WITH SCT SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT ACROSS ERN PR. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC OVR THE WEEKEND
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT THU NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. UNDER A
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECT SHALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR WITH MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SC CLOUDS...VCSH AND -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA DURG OVERNIGHT HRS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJSJ
AND TJBQ...TIST AND TNCM IN PASSING -SHRA THRU 19/12Z. AFTER
19/14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 7-9 FT GENERATED BY SUBTROPICAL
STORM MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THU AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HAVE EXTENEDED THE
HIGH SURF THRU 10Z THU. SEAS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 84 77 / 10 0 20 40
STT 86 79 85 80 / 10 10 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED A DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. LATEST 19/12Z TJSJS SOUNDING SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES AND THETAE VALUES AT 700MB
OF 320K. SOME CLOUDINESS HAVE FORMED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
CLOUDINESS AND VCSH POSSIBLE LATE AFT INTO EVE MAINLY AT TJSJ AND
TJMZ. WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL PREVAIL AT AROUND 5 TO 15
KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY FROM
5 TO 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41053 IN SAN JUAN SHOWED WAVE HEIGHT SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BIT JUST BELOW 7 FEET...BUT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER PULSE OF SWELLS MOVED...WHICH INCREASED THE
SEAS UP TO 8 FEET. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUES IN EFFECT. REFER TO LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS FOR LATEST
INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 84 / 0 20 40 40
STT 74 86 75 85 / 10 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...AND BUILD
EASTWARD INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND PULL FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW LEVEL
PATTERN IS INDUCING A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...AS A RESULT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE EAST TO NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE PRESENT WIND FLOW WILL BRING PATCHES OF SHALLOW
TRADE WIND MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME... ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION MAY
ENHANCE SOME OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE COASTAL AREAS
OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH PLEASANT
SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHEN EVEN DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FOR VISITING TOURISTS AND LOCAL BEACH GOERS...DUE TO THE HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE NORTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE
DISTANT SUBTROPICAL STORMS MELISSA...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE
TO HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARDS MESSAGES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SHRA ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE AFTER 20/17Z ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BRIEFLY AFFECTING MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH VCSH BUT ESPECIALLY FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ.
AFTER 20/14Z WITH SFC WINDS FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AROUND 10 KTS.
&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND ALL PASSAGES TODAY...THEN GRADUAL
DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. BUOY 41043 REPORTED NEW PULSES OF SWELL ACTION
0F 9 TO 10 FEET AT 14 SECS EARLIER TODAY. ALSO BUOY 41053...IN
THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING REPORTED SEAS NEAR 8
FEET AT 12 SECS. THEREFORE THE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH
BREAKING WAVE OF 10 FEET OR GREATER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH FACING COASTLINES AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. REFER
TO LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 73 / 20 40 40 40
STT 86 74 86 76 / 20 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...STILL QUITE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. NO SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PR YET AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT ONES OVER ST. THOMAS/
ST. CROIX. SMALL PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE ARE EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE LOOPS SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND THE LEEWARDS. THIS WILL
MIGRATE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT LINGER AT LEAST INTO THU NIGHT BUT
SHOWERS WILL BE SHALLOW AND SCATTERED...MAYBE A LITTLE THUNDER THU
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE LOOK RELATIVELY DRY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THU XCPT MVFR PSBL IN A FEW OF THE SHRA.
WINDS BLO FL150 MOSTLY E 12 KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...MELISSA STILL SENDING HIGH SWELLS TOWARD ATLANTIC SIDE
OF PR/USVI BUT HAVE SUBSIDED ABOUT A FOOT SINCE THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR ON TRACK TO BE NECESSARY
ONLY THROUGH 6 AM WITHOUT AN EXTENSION. BREAKING WAVES OVER 10 FT
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 83 / 40 40 40 40
STT 75 86 75 85 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. PR and the VI will have scattered showers today as a weak Tropical Perturbation moves thru. Weather will be better for the weekend with only isolated showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AS
A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL STORM
MELISSA CONTINUE TO QUICKLY RACE FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION WITH ASSOCIATED SURGE
OF MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THIS MORNING PRODUCING AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WAS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED AREAS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY AFFECTED PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...TO AID IN SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
WEST MAY STILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH
FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SWELL ACTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION OF 10 FEET OR MORE AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL 6 AM AST THIS MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL HAZARD UPDATES.

AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXCEPT
FOR THE OCCASIONAL SHALLOW TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE PASSING SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM
THE DISTANT TROPICAL STORM MELISSA...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL NOON AST FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS TO THE LOCAL WATERS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
INFO LATER ON IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 83 74 / 40 40 40 20
STT 86 75 85 73 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THE REST OF TODAY...PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. AT UPPER LEVEL...A WEAK
TROUGHINESS OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...PASSING SHOWERS
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. THEN...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE FRIDAY...
LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK
TROUGHINESS OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT HAS ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. CONVECTION PERSISTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...LEAVING RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES. ALTHOUGH...
THE WEAK TROUGH IS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE
EASTERLY PERTURBATION HAVE MOVED WEST OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
MODERATE AS NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINS
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY
PERTURBATION WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL...
EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY A FEW TRADE
WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME
TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA...MAINLY FOR TJSJ...TJMZ...TJPS...TIST AND TISX. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHOWERS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE SAN JUAN BUOY
AND THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE BUOY INDICATE A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
LOCAL SEAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
FROM SUNDAY TO AT LEAST MID-WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 84 / 60 50 20 20
STT 74 84 74 86 / 50 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

A very heavy thunderstorm with loud thunder and plenty of lightening is over San Juan as I type this with loud thunder and plenty of lightening. Also flooding of streets is occurring. Saved radar loop below.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today but better weather is expected for the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 AM AST FRI NOV 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...PERTURBATION IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 22/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS CLOSE TO 2
INCHES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GOING
DOWN TO AS MUCH AS 1.35 INCHES.

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS ONLY PASSING SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MAYBE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO....AREA IN WHICH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
MAY PLAY A ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR
TJSJ...TJMZ...TJPS...TIST AND TISX. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN JUAN BUOY 41053 AND THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 INDICATE THAT SEAS ARE SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS SEAS ONCE AGAIN ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM SUNDAY TO AT LEAST MID-
WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 85 73 / 50 20 20 20
STT 85 74 86 76 / 40 20 20 20

[Jimsot]

That low level PERTURBATION gave Anguilla 3.10 inches of rain yesterday!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST FRI NOV 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY...
LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.
SOME INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY SEE EARLY TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
GPS MET DATA AT ISABELA AND BAYAMON SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS DECREASED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS FROM 1.9 TO 1.6 INCHES.
AS A RESULT...RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLAND PUERTO RICO AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1.2 INCHES. THIS LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT AND A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL...MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. ALSO...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...THE GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...LINGERING PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME...BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH VCSH BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR TJSJ...TJPS...AND TJMZ. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOYS INDICATED
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 10-15 KTS. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL FOR LATE SATURDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH THIS NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BE BETWEEN 5-7 FEET AT 12
TO 14 SECONDS. THIS MAY REQUIRE A SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 75 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A good weekend weatherwise is expected in PR and VI with only a few showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT NOV 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. A GENERALLY
DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES. THIS
LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL...MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. ALSO...ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PRD.FEW PASSING -SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN
LEEWARDS. SFC WNDS LGT AND VRB TIL 23/14Z. L/LVL FM NE AT 5-15 KTS
BACKING W/HT BCMG WESTERLY ABV WITH MAX WND OF AROUND 50 KTS NR
FL350 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SAN JUAN BUOY 41053 IS REPORTING SEAS OF AROUND 4.5 FEET
WHILE THE OUTER BUOY NORTH OF PR NUMBER 41043 IS REPORTING SEAS OF
UNDER 6 FEET. FOR THAT REASON THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW HAS SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT NOV 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY. IN FACT...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AREA OF 15-30 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. IN THIS PATTERN...NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST DRIER WEATHER WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS EACH NIGHT BUT WILL
BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO DEVELOP WESTERN PR ON SUNDAY...BUT
WILL BE ISOLATED. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATED A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON MONDAY. UNDER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...BUT DEFINITELY WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND USVI ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY. THEN...A MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...LIMITING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHRA POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE USVI...ERN PR AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS SFC WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A
NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS
MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...
BUT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 74 85 / 10 10 20 20
STT 76 87 76 86 / 20 20 20 30