Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunset in Western PR.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only isolated showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THOUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
ABC ISLANDS BY THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA FROM
THERE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGHING APPROACHING THE AREA WILL PIVOT OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOES NOT
APPEAR UNTIL EARLY THE WEEK AFTER NEXT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY ORIENTATION
WITH WEAK PATCHES OF MOISTURE BY MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME RETURNING TO ISOLATED PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NEXT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE FEW
THAT WERE SEEN GENERALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF FAJARDO AND
AROUND AND EAST OF SAINT JOHN. CELLS WERE MOVING LITTLE IN THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A TROUGH WILL
ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WHATEVER SHALLOW SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
WITH SEA BREEZES DOMINATING THE CIRCULATION WOULD EXPECT MOST
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY IN AN ATMOSPHERE
ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE BUT DRYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND ON MONDAY EVENING THE GFS LIFTED
INDEX BECOMES POSITIVE AND DOES NOT RETURN BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF MARCH. THIS WILL KEEP MOST CONVECTION AT BAY AND LIMIT
SHOWERS TO THOSE THAT MOVE ONSHORE WITH ONLY A FEW OVER THE WARMER
SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OCCURS
ON THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVOKE SOME MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. THIS ALL FITS VERY WELL WITH THE ENTRANCE INTO OUR
DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR AND MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE ABOUT ONE
DEGREE TOO LOW ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLD/SCT SHRA CARRY AN OUTSIDE CHC OF MVFR
MAINLY INLAND PR OVR CORDILLERA AFT ON SUN/MON AND OFFSHORE DURING
NITES. WIND LGT/VRBL SFC-FL050 BCMG W 10-15 KT AT FL150...LGT/VRBL
UNDER 10 KT SFC-FL150 ON MON WITH MODERATE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL...BUT A
TRAIN OF NORTHERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS MIDDAY
ON MONDAY INCREASING SEAS ABOUT ONE FOOT AND BRINGING A CROSS-CHOP
TO THE WATERS. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE MORE LATE IN
THE WEEK WHEN WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 81 74 / 10 20 20 30
STT 85 74 84 74 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Beautful sunday at the beach in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...INCREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY. WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH LATE TODAY AND EARLY ON
MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE ON
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
ALLOWED FOR SOME SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ALLOWED
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS...SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED WITHOUT MUCH MOVEMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SLOPES FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE USVI.

AS THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER AS THE WIND
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR TOMORROW JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR...SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
THEN DRY AIR AGAIN COMING IN FROM THE EAST FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREAS THRU THE FCST PRD. L/LVL WNDS LIGHT
BUT MAINLY FM THE NE BLO FL050...THEN BACKING AND BCMG FM N ABV AND
UP TO FL100...THEN FM THE WEST AND INCR W/HT UP TO FL350. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR WHERE ISOLD SHRA
MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR TIL 02/22Z. BKN-OVC CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NW OF PR WITH ISOLD EMBED SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS TO REMAIN MAINLY TRANQUIL TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS GETTING UP TO 5 FEET. NORTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY...RAISING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 80 70 80 / 20 20 40 30
STT 72 83 72 84 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...INCREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL AFFECT TE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY EXITS
THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FORM TIME TO TIME. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 18Z...WHILE SOME SHRA WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR BTWN 18Z-21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS BELOW 20K FT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...RAISING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 72 80 73 / 40 30 30 0
STT 83 73 84 73 / 40 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REORGANIZE
AND REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION WHILE DISSIPATING. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL INDUCE A PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT WITH
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND EVEN DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COOLER AIR BROUGHT IN BY THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST TRADE
WIND FLOW HELPED TO ENHANCE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE FOCUSED ACROSS SOME OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ALONG THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. OVERALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL AS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
WAS OF SHORT DURATION. A GRADUAL DRYING TRENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND REESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS EXPECTED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY AND LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SO FAR INITIALIZED FAIRLY
WELL...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND HOWEVER...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS AN INDUCED FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE REGION AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
COASTAL SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS TJPS. PASSING SHRA ALSO WILL CAUSE
VCSH ACROSS TISX AND TIST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE
ENE AT 10 TO 15 KTS UNTIL 03/23Z THEN BECOMING LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 04/13Z...SHIFTING MORE TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE....A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RISE
SLIGHTLY UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES...AND TO 3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 72 82 / 30 30 0 20
STT 73 84 73 85 / 30 30 10 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail in PR and VI for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE
EAST NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS BELOW ONE
INCH...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
AND MOVE NORTHEAST PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PR BTWN 18Z-21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE... NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES...AND TO 3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 73 83 73 / 20 0 20 30
STT 84 73 85 72 / 20 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO MAINTAIN OVERALL
DRY AND STABLE AND SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS AND A WEAKLY INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS TO THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION TO MAINTAIN PREVAILING EASTERLIES DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN AGAIN GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS HOLD BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AT AL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH EMBEDDED TRADE WIND SHOWERS INDUCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY A POLAR TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PWAT VALUES...AND THUS AN INCREASE IN THE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL WINDS
ARE TO THEN BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF
SHRA AFFECTING TIST...TISX EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AND VCSH FOR TJMZ/TJBQ
POSSIBLE AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING
AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AFTER 05/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES AS NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELLS WILL HELP TO CREATE SEAS OF 6 FEET ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 85 / 10 20 30 30
STT 73 85 72 85 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
908 PM AST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SAT THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE IS BRINGING HIGHER TPW AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CLUSTERING RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE MONA PASSAGE WED WITH SLIGHT DRYING EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PR.

SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED THU THRU SAT UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN WED AND PEAK ON THU CREATING
DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH COAST THU. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN SUN AS SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL REACH 20N SUN THEN DISSIPATE BUT WILL
SLACKEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT SUBSTANTIALLY ALLOWING FOR GOOD
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MODELS NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SIG
MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO THE AREA ATTM BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CORDILLERA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-MORNING.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS POLAR
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS PERTURBATION HAVE ENHANCED THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY ERODE ANY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT
DRYING COMBINED WITH FRESH WINDS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEN...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS A POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS POLAR TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 20N EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
FAVORING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
JSJ/IST/ISX DURING MORNING HOURS. SHRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS
NW PR BTWN 18Z-21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM THE EAST 15-20
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN WED AND THU WITH SEAS BUILDING NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH
RAPIDLY FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH COAST
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS STRENGTHEN ANOTHER 5-KT AND SHARP DRYING
TAKES PLACE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. AS A RESULT...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 30 20 10 20
STT 84 73 84 76 / 30 10 0 30

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunrise in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 PM AST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS TO MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE
LOW LEVEL... HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND STALL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WAS MAINLY DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECT...DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE. AFTER SUNSET SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER LAND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A DRYER AIR MASS JUST EAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY DRY SIGNATURE ALOFT AS WELL AS THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST PW VALUES NOW AROUND 1.33 IN AND DECREASING
TO NEAR AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING A WETTER PATTERN AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...INTERACTING WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE E TO NE AT
10 TO 20 KTS UNTIL 05/23Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06/12Z...SHIFTING MORE TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.


&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 12 TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS FROM 3
TO 6 FEET IN NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...RAWS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS. TODAY...THE SALINAS RAWS STATION AT CAMP
SANTIAGO SHOWED MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 13 AND 20 MPH
WITH GUST TO 29 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 50-55 PERCENT
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONDITIONS AT CABO ROJO SHOWED MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH WINDS FROM EAST SOUTHEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUST UP
TO 31 MPH... AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 53-55 PERCENT. A CONTINUED
DRYING TREND...AND LESSER CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS
RESULT... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA PASSAGE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 72 84 / 20 10 20 20
STT 74 84 73 84 / 10 0 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD MOSTLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED
OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. A GENERAL DRY AND RELATIVELY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL
EFFECT WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF VERY
DRY AIR MASS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION TOMORROW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENS...THE
FIRE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THAT REASONS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAINS
IN EFFECT AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH COAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
935 PM AST WED MAR 5 2014

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRZ014-060945-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FW.A.0003.140306T1600Z-140306T2200Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND-
935 PM AST WED MAR 5 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: EAST SOUTHEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): 715 IN CAMP SANTIAGO.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 8 PERCENT IN THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA
AND AROUND 10 PERCENT IN CABO ROJO.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE CAMP SANTIAGO
AREA AND 50 TO 55 PERCENT IN CABO ROJO.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TYPICALLY 24 TO 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. LISTEN
FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today with only isolated showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY MAINTAINING A VERY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A RELATIVELY
DRY...STABLE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACTS...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS
EVEN MORE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A VERY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL
DECREASE TO LEES THAN 1.00 INCH TODAY AND TOMORROW...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY TO AROUND 1.0 INCHES AND THEN DECREASING AGAIN
BY SUNDAY. THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
ALSO PROMOTE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY WEATHER
PATTERN...THE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL CREATE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS O CLOSE TO
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
JSJ/IST/ISX DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. SHRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR BTWN 18Z-21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM THE
EAST 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 12 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS FROM 2 TO
6 FEET IN NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND AND LESSER CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THIS SITUATION ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A HIGH FIRE TREAT ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO.
FOR THOSE REASONS...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN OF PUERTO RICO AND MONA
ISLAND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED
BY THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 73 / 10 20 20 20
STT 85 73 85 72 / 0 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST THU MAR 6 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND....

.MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL
SPREAD RAPIDLY.


PRZ014-062200-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.FW.A.0003.140306T1600Z-140306T2200Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0003.140306T1600Z-140306T2200Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND-
400 AM AST THU MAR 6 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: EAST SOUTHEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): 715 IN CAMP SANTIAGO.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 8 PERCENT IN THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA
AND AROUND 10 PERCENT IN CABO ROJO.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE CAMP
SANTIAGO AREA AND 50 TO 55 PERCENT IN CABO ROJO.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH RESPECT
TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES. AVOID ANY
EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR BRUSH. DO NOT
TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO
THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS PROHIBITED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
TODAY MAINTAINING A VERY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCAT ERRED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE USVI AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS O CLOSE TO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE E AT 10 TO
20 KTS UNTIL 06/23Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 07/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS FROM 4 TO
6 FEET IN NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND AND LESSER CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THIS SITUATION ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A HIGH FIRE TREAT ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO.
FOR THOSE REASONS...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...UNTIL 6PM. FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN OF PUERTO RICO
AND MONA ISLAND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 84 / 30 20 20 20
STT 73 85 72 84 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

A 5.0 quake occurred NW of PR. See the details at the Caribbean seismic activity thread at link below.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2375327#p2375327

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 PM AST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OVR NORTH FL IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE NW ATLC BY SAT PUSHING A FRONTAL ZONE TO
20N WHERE IT WILL STALL ON SUN AND THEN DISSIPATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT HARDLY DISCERNABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SAT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING A
CLOUDY SHOWERY DAY FOR MOST AREAS. A WEAK SHEARLINE WILL THEN GET
CLOSER TO THE AREA SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
FOCUSING ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST PR. TRUE
FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF 20N SUN THEN DISSIPATE
WITH NO EFFECTS OVER OUR AREA.

MODELS THEN INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
MON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PW VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS
0.6 INCHES. LATEST CFSV2 INDICATES THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
LONG STRETCH OF DRY WX LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A WEEK AND
IF YOU BELIEVE EXTENDED FCSTS COULD BE MUCH LONGER THAN THAT. THIS
IS AS A RESULT OF A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVR THE NATLC WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today with only a few showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH HOLDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
CONTINUE TO EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PR WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS AT WINDWARD
AREAS AS WELL AS LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO.

WEATHER SCENARIO WILL CHANGE A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH WETTER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENT PATTERN...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AN EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. ALTHOUGH...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS CANT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PASSING -SHRA WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT AREAS
IN AND AROUND TJSJ...USVI AS WELL AS TNCM/TKPK IN THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR BTWN 07/16Z-22Z COULD AFFECT
TJMZ/TJBQ CAUSING MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS UNTIL
07/13Z...INCREASING AFTER 07/13Z TO 10 AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT NNW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS ON TUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER HUMIDITIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY WILL LESSEN THE FIRE RISK CONSIDERABLY.
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY SAT. STILL SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON
OVR SW PR. VERY DRY ALL OF NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MON BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 72 / 20 30 40 20
STT 86 76 86 75 / 20 30 30 10