ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Hammy indeed. I had a feeling EURO would trend back to a stronger solution this cycle and my real concern is that it would not surprise me in the least if the EURO intensifies Erika in future runs.

[ericinmia]

:uarrow: Yeah Hammy indeed. I had a feeling EURO would trend back to a stronger solution this cycle and my real concern is that it would not surprise me in the least if the EURO intensifies Erika in future runs.

I agree! Especially and contingent upon track and how well she maintains the progress she has made tonight. If the dry air, sheer, and speed are not limiting her, this could start to show up in the models as further strengthening down the road. They usually have trouble with genesis, and she was in the ICU earlier tonight.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I am off to bed. Lots and lots to really watch and for all of you guys first down in South Florida, if you have not gone out and started your prep work, it is time to get it done now!! Erika is really a legitimate threat now, first to you all, then later the storm will possibly impact my area late into this weekend /Monday timeframe. So, very very busy and interesting days ahead!!!!!

[boca]

It only takes one and Erika is our one.

[ericinmia]

Well, I am off to bed. Lots and lots to really watch and for all of you guys first down in South Florida, if you have not gone out and started your prep work, it is time to get it done now!! Erika is really a legitimate threat now, first to you all, then later the storm will possibly impact my area late into this weekend /Monday timeframe. So, very very busy and interesting days ahead!!!!!

I was just making a list of things I need to get in the morning from the Echo Dealer, and Home Depot....
Can I quote you when I get arrested tonight, for starting "now" instead of tomorrow???

[ericinmia]

She is still gaining impressive presentation....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[northjaxpro]

This is the best I have seen Erika look in about 36 hours. Convection really blossoming nicely during these morning wee hours. Erika may be a bit stronger come the next advisory at 5 a.m. We will see what NHC does.

Back in here a bit later.

[Hammy]

12 hour difference showing the dry air ahead of Erika is moving west about the same speed and the environment immediately around it is also moistening as time goes on.

[bahamaswx]

Blob continues to grow. Could always collapse as quickly as it appeared, though.

[chaser1]

Wow, that CDO is so dense and larger in size than Erika'a prior convection, that I cant hardly tell exactly where the center is. One thing is certain though, if this bursting continues, it'll go a long way toward re-aligning the storms inner core. I'd have to guess that some pressure falls were occuring with that convective bombing near or over center. Alright all... i'm outa here. Better get some sleep now, might be less of that in the days to come

[knotimpaired]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

Absolutely not! Too many people here are caught by some models and two or three lines of text.

As a Floridian you should be monitoring this system until there is no cloud left. At the very least, rain chances are going up from the trough Wednesday through Friday depending on your location in Florida. The weekend is a whole different kind of forecast that will have to play out this week. You should be prepared either way.

Dissipation is only one possibility over the next 12-24 hours. Environmental conditions get better starting in 48-72 hours.

Great having you in here tonight Jonathan! Great to see you on the forums along with Ozonepete. I have high regard for each of you and thanks for bringing back some sanity back on this forum with your thoughts Jonathan. I agree with everything you stated. People in the Bahamas and all across the Florida peninsula and along the Southeast U.S.coast should remain vigilant the rest of this week , through this weekend and possibly into early next week.

Yes, thank you Jonathan for joining us considering your busy schedule. I am a FSU Mom (Film School 1999) living in Vieques and I not only follow your Twitter feed but your website jonathanbelles.com. You are the best!

[JonathanBelles]

Great having you in here tonight Jonathan! Great to see you on the forums along with Ozonepete. I have high regard for each of you and thanks for bringing back some sanity back on this forum with your thoughts Jonathan. I agree with everything you stated. People in the Bahamas and all across the Florida peninsula and along the Southeast U.S.coast should remain vigilant the rest of this week , through this weekend and possibly into early next week.

Yes, thank you Jonathan for joining us considering your busy schedule. I am a FSU Mom (Film School 1999) living in Vieques and I not only follow your Twitter feed but your website jonathanbelles.com. You are the best!

No problemo! I'm usually lurking here and everywhere else in the social media world. If you have questions for me, or any of the other mets, feel free to jump out and ask! I'll be less busy for this year's peak than in the last couple of years since i'm now a master's grad.

Also to note, the first Vortex message has been sent by the SALEX (SAL experiment) mission this morning. 1004 mb. A couple of obs as low as 1002mb. They noted that convection is messing with the 700mb wind field.

[bahamaswx]

That 1004mb was with a 27kt surface wind. Could easily estimate 1001mb.

[La Breeze]

I'm hearing "troughs" along the east coast and then I'm also hearing high pressure building west from the coast on other sites... which one is it? I know that it's still early, but according to the official forecasts - will there be a trough or a high along the eastern coast by the time Erika is near?

[JonathanBelles]

I'm hearing "troughs" along the east coast and then I'm also hearing high pressure building west from the coast on other sites... which one is it? I know that it's still early, but according to the official forecasts - will there be a trough or a high along the eastern coast by the time Erika is near?

It's early, but it could be both. A few runs of various models have shown slow downs due to both being in play.

[ericinmia]

I'm hearing "troughs" along the east coast and then I'm also hearing high pressure building west from the coast on other sites... which one is it? I know that it's still early, but according to the official forecasts - will there be a trough or a high along the eastern coast by the time Erika is near?

Generally speaking, it depends on what model you are looking at.
But... In this case, many models are starting to show the same thing.

Check this output from the Euro (ECMWF) at 00z tonight (2am):
viewtopic.php?p=2468648#p2468648

You can see the high building in....

[Siker]

I'm hearing "troughs" along the east coast and then I'm also hearing high pressure building west from the coast on other sites... which one is it? I know that it's still early, but according to the official forecasts - will there be a trough or a high along the eastern coast by the time Erika is near?

It's becoming more and more likely that Erika impacts Florida. On the 00z Euro, there's a trough just strong enough to move the storm a ways up the eastern Florida coast, but that's its maximum strength; this first trough is not strong at all. After that, the Euro shows no more troughing sweeping through, so at the end of the run it would either continue inland or head into the Gulf.

[bahamaswx]

DMAX coming to an end soon. We'll see what she can hold on to.

[Hammy]

That 1004mb was with a 27kt surface wind. Could easily estimate 1001mb.

Safe to say this appears to be strengthening at the moment?

edit: convection looks like its going southwest away from the center again, though it's probably going to do this for a few days.

[ozonepete]

That 1004mb was with a 27kt surface wind. Could easily estimate 1001mb.

Safe to say this appears to be strengthening at the moment?

Very safe to say. Big convective blowup almost right over the center with a very large circulation envelope in place. No evidence of shear or mid-level dry air influence right now.