Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST MON FEB 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A WEAK TROF TO
MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AT LOW LEVELS...TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS SFC TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY...SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF PR
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY AT
TIMES LEAVING BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES AS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR...ESPECIALLY OVER LARES AND MOCA. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY SUNSET OVER WESTERN PR AND CONTINUE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE AS ESE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN HALF
OF PR...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT EXPECT
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR TO FILL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LIMITING THE CHANCES OF ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...SFC
HIGH WILL DOMINATE LOCAL CONDITIONS WITH SHALLOW TRADE WIND
SHOWERS INCREASING BY MID WEEK IN A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR AND TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI/WINDWARD AREAS OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VICINITY SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ
UNTIL 22/17Z. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 90 KNOTS ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 8-10 FEET IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL AT
LEAST TUESDAY AT 5 AM FOR PUERTO RICO NORTH SHORE AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE SAME AREA. IN ADDITION...A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE BEACHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AS WELL AS FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST FACING BEACHES OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 75 88 / 20 30 30 30
STT 76 85 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST TUE FEB 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A WEAK TROF TO
MOVE WESTWARD LEAVING THE LOCAL REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY...A TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING MOST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED AROUND MIDNIGHT. EARLY IN THE MORNING...A
SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO INCREASE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE WATERS...ACROSS THE EASTERN
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THIS TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A DRY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN ADDITION...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY AIR MASS AT THESE LEVEL
KEEPING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY SHALLOW DURING MOST OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCNTY SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR THRU ARND 23/14Z WITH BRIEF MVFR
AT TNCM AND TJNR THEN SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ
AFT 23/17Z ALONG WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ESE 5 TO
15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT THE SFC. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE
WEST ARND FL180 AND INCR TO 55 TO 70 KTS BY FL360.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES. A NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LOCAL
BUOYS INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 6-7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...THE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES HIGH ACROSS THE BEACHES OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...RINCON...AND MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 74 / 20 20 30 20
STT 85 75 85 75 / 20 20 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE FEB 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS
THE REGION. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DECREASE IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A WEAKENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TODAY...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH NORTH
OF THE REGION. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
ATLANTIC HIGH TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION AND LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND EASTERLY TRADES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA...EASTERN PR...AND THE USVI DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SO FAR HOWEVER...
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OR REPORTED AT THE
MOMENT. A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND UNDER THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECT THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND TO BRING MAINLY
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL CLEARING BY LATE MORNING EACH DAY FOR REST
OF THE WEEK. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS... MAINLY LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MAINLY FOCUSED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS ISOLATED AREAS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF VCSH. TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
TJBQ BETWEEN 23/19Z AND 23/22Z AS CLOUDS AND SHRA DEVELOP OVER THE
NW CORNER OF PR...PERSISTING VCSH AT TJSJ POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS FROM THE E-ESE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10KT THROUGH 23/23Z...THEN SLIGHTLY DECREASING
WINDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE ESE.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN MOST AREAS BUT
REMAIN AT OR NEAR 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 74 88 / 20 30 20 20
STT 75 85 75 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC
HIGH TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION AND LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND EASTERLY TRADES ONCE AGAIN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER
LAND AREAS. LOCAL AREA CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THEREFORE...DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANT OF THIS BOUNDARY
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST TONIGHT. REFER TO LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR
LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 88 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 75 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS....MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO
SHIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST AND RELAX THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY...AS THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS LIMITED MOISTURE POOLING AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGE IN THE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES ELSEWHERE.

BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO ALSO ERODE. BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR
INCREASED EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS SOME BRIEF
DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO LINGER ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF
-SHRA/SHRA ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA MAY CAUSE VCSH ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE E-ESE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT TODAY...DECREASING WINDS AFTER 24/23Z TO AROUND 5 TO
10KT FROM THE EAST TO ESE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE
HOWEVER BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING AS THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE AND THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS ARE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 74 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 75 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST THU FEB 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION AND LOOSEN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY TRADES ONCE AGAIN. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY..THEREFORE...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANT OF THIS BOUNDARY LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VCSH POSSIBLE DUE TO -SHRA EN ROUTE FM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHRA OVER WEST/WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR...IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF JMZ/JBQ. WINDS
BLO FL100 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KNOTS. SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 87 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST THU FEB 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT RELAXED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...INCREASING EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...SOME OF THE SHOWERS WERE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY. THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPED AS A PATCH OF
MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN
OCCASIONALLY. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREASE SUBSIDENCE AND
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE STARTING ON
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE BEST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. SINCE IT IS SO FAR INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
REMNANT OF THIS BOUNDARY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA OVER WEST AND NW PR...IMPACTING
MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF JMZ/JBQ. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST AT 15-25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS SHOW WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT WITH GUST AROUND
20 KT AT TIMES AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. THIS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 74 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 75 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT RELAXED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...INCREASING EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY. THEREFORE...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANTS
BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...INDUCING SOME CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE VCSH ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD/IST/EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BETWEEN 17Z-22Z SHRA OVER WEST AND NW
PR...IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF JMZ/JBQ. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THRU 22Z OVER WEST PR TERMINALS. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 73 / 20 10 10 20
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT
RELAXED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...INCREASING ON MONDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR. AFTERNOON...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...SOME OF THE SHOWERS
WERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PR AS WELL AS THE SAN JUAN METRO OBSERVED QUICK PASSING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. THE USVI OBSERVED LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPED AS A PATCH OF
MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED THIS WEEKEND WITH PATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN OCCASIONALLY. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CREASE SUBSIDENCE AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PR WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE STARTING ON
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE BEST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SINCE IT IS SO FAR
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS IS THE
FEATURE THAT WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING ON MONDAY BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU THE FCST
PRD. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA W/FEW PASSING CLDS LYRS...FL025... FL050...SKC
ABV. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONT FM THE E AT 5-15 KNOTS. SFC WND OVR
LAND BCMG LGT/VRB TO CALM AFT 27/00Z...BCMG FM E-NE 10-15 KTS AFT
27/14Z. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX HAZARDS/IMPACTS ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS SUGGEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET IN MOST AREAS.
FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 73 88 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE LOCAL
GRADIENT RELAXES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC MOVES FARTHER EAST AND ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH ENTERS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. PWAT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM...INCREASING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
WATERS WITH LITTLE TO NONE OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. WINDS WERE
LIGHT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS. FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF PR...LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS.

FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL NOT HAVE A DIRECT
IMPACT ON LOCAL WX CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND FAVOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS/WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR THRU THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO OUR AREA
LATER BY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
27/22. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 27/16Z-27/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL RANGE IN GENERAL BETWEEN 2-4 FEET AND UP TO 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 5-15 KNOTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ACROSS PR NORTH SHORE AND ST. CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 74 / 10 20 20 20
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY IN THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CIRCLING AROUND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER HISPANIOLA ON
MONDAY. WEAK RIDGE LINES WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WILL BE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THE ENTIRE TIME.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN UNTIL A TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE FROM A FRONTAL
ZONE WILL RELIEVE THE GENERAL DRYNESS OF THE LAYER OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM AROUND
NEW ORLEANS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEK BUT WILL NOT BE FULLY DISPLACED FROM THE
LOCAL AREA BY THE ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A SECOND LOW WILL BE STRONGER AND GATHER STRENGTH LATE
IN THE WEEK OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST. CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING ITS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO...IN STREAMERS OFF OF VIEQUES OVER EL YUNQUE...OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SAINT CROIX TO SOUTH OF VIEQUES...AND EXTENDING
WEST NORTHWEST FROM SAINT THOMAS. THESE STREAMERS HAD ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THEM BUT LITTLE WAS SEEN OVER LAND AS OF 2:30 PM AST.
SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY DRIER...EXIST TODAY. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE WARM RIVER BASINS IN NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
EARLY EVENING...LEAVING INTERIOR PUERTO RICO MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SKIRTED BY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AND FAINT HELP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HOWEVER ON MONDAY LOWER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE EAST
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEANS OVER JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
SOME MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS WILL ADD TO THE MIX OVER THE LOCAL
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT FROM A STRONGER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH MUCH BETTER
MOISTURE...BUT IT IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN AND THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
LOW WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH AND THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PRD.
SCT CLD LYRS...FL025..FL050...FEW TCU...ISOLD TOP 150...ISOLD SHRA
EN ROUTE OVR COASTAL WATERS BTW E PR AND U.S.VI. SCT-BKN...FL025...
OVR W PR WITH ISOLD SHRA VCTY TJBQ AND TJMZ...THEN BCM MOSTLY CLR
OVR LAND AFT 27/22Z. L/LVL WINDS FM E AT 10-15 KTS BLO FL100...BCMG
FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV. SFC WND MAINLY FM E EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS UP TO 15 KTS OCNL HIR GUSTS TIL 27/23Z. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS OF THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLOWLY TOMORROW UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY ON MONDAY THEN HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 74 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY...KEEPING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT RATHER RELAXED. THE LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO FRAGMENT AND THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE DAY WITH BETTER
SHOWERS AS THE EXPECTED MOISTURE INCREASE IS SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BRIEF SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THE
VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A PATCH OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PR IN THE MORNING
THEN SOME DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA MAY OBSERVE SHOWERS LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORNING SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH ACCUMULATION BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT. THE USVI SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH BRIEF
SHOWERS OF LITTLE ACCUMULATION AFFECTING THEM...SOME SHOWERS COULD
STREAM OFF THE ISLANDS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HAVING A
STRONG CAP AND NO CAPE. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO 1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE
STORY REPEATS ITSELF ON MONDAY WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE ATMOSPHERE BUT THE STRONG CAP AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY HAS 1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE FORECAST BUT ONCE AGAIN LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A
GREAT HANDLE ON THINGS AS OF YET. THERE IS DISCREPANCY AND FLIP
FLOP BETWEEN MODEL RUNS FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT...WHICH PROVES
THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SO AT THIS
TIME WE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...HAVING SAID THAT...LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY AND IT IS FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN VCSH ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TODAY. IN THE
AFTERNOON...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 FEET OR LESS AT THE MOMENT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIKE THAT TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTH
COAST OF PR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY CAUSING WINDS
TO BECOME MORE MODERATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE PASSAGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL PASS THROUGH ON LATE THURSDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY EVENING OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER
LEVELS HAS BEEN ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTH TODAY WILL
CUT OFF ON MONDAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN BUT WILL NOT BE DISPLACED BY THE TROUGH THAT PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY TO
VERY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE DEEPENING SOMEWHAT. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW PULLING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONE OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS WAS NEAR SAN JUAN AND THE AIRPORT
RECEIVED 0.30 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT WAS IN INTERIOR CAROLINA
AND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF EL YUNQUE WHERE AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES
MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO NWS DOPPLER RADAR. A SLIGHTLY WETTER
AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THE NORTHEASTERN WINDWARD
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND SUPPLY
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. FLOW TURNS STRONGLY SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT...STRONGER THAN THE
FIRST...APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CURRENT TREND IN THE GFS IS TO
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND 06/00Z...SATURDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ECMWF DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH AS 1000-850
MB THICKNESSES CONTINUE MUCH AS THEY WILL BE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEK. BUT THIS IS ALSO ABOUT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE GFS HAS
FORECAST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS SEASON...AND WE ARE NOW ONLY
ABOUT 6 DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TILL 28/22Z OVER INTERIOR/EASTERN
PR DUE TO SHRA...MAINLY IMPACTING THE FLYING AREA OF TJSJ. SHRA
OVER WESTERN INTERIOR COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR PERIODS AT TJMZ/TJBQ
TILL SUNSET. SCT CLDS AT FL030-FL070 AND MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE. OCNL SHRA OVER THE WATER COULD REACH THE USVI/EASTERN
PR TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE ESE AROUND 10 KNOTS TILL AROUND 29/02Z WHEN THEY
TURN MORE ENE AT 8-12 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE LOCAL WATERS INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS ALSO SHOW SOME INCREASE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND HOWEVER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 87 / 50 50 30 30
STT 75 85 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON FEB 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TRADES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN ERODE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM
AFFECTING USVI AND THE NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEK...RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A DISSIPATING SURFACE FRONT NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL SUPPLY MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE UP
TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MID
LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY TO VERY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNDER THIS
PATTERN CONTINUE TO EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND
NORTH COASTAL AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA. THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME.

A SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND...
AS A SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
THE LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS TJMZ AND TJPS
BETWEEN 29/17Z AND 29/23Z...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHRA ACROSS SW-PR
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF TJPS AND TJMZ...SOME MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. FAIR WX FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
WITH BRIEF VCSH AT MOST. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10-15KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR THE SHRA. DECREASING WINDS
AFTER 01/00Z TO 5-10KT FROM THE EAST.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-5 FT TODAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BY
MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 50 30 30 50
STT 85 75 85 75 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST TUE MAR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DISSIPATING
SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
ERODE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM
AFFECTING USVI AND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WORK WEEK...RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A DISSIPATING SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL THEN REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN
MOISTURE.

THEREFORE...UNDER RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT/ASSOCIATED CAP INVERSION
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS... FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
THE LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS TJMZ 01/17Z AND
01/23Z AS SHRA DEVELOPS ACROSS W-SW PR. FAIR WX FOR THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF VCSH AT MOST. WINDS FROM THE E-ENE AT 10-15KT
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR THE SHRA. DECREASING
WINDS AFTER 02/00Z TO 5-10KT FROM THE ENE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ALL WEEK. AT THIS TIME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 74 / 30 20 30 20
STT 86 75 87 76 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE MAR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...INCREASING TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MOISTURE TO POOL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY
ACROSS ALL ISLANDS. LIGHT STREAMERS FORMED OFF THE USVI...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUED THRU EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO RAIN WAS OBSERVED WITH THE
STREAMERS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...MAINLY OVER SAN GERMAN AND VICINITY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN PR.

MOISTURE WILL BE CAPPED BELOW 700MB AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS THRU AT
LEAST FRIDAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA AND TRADE WINDS INCREASE...EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE REACHING THE
USVI/EASTERN PR FROM TIME TO TIME THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWED BY LIMITED SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. BY FRIDAY
ONWARD...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN END NEAR TKPK DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM 01/18Z-
01/23Z AND FROM 02/18Z - 02/23Z. LLVL WINDS 5 TO 15 KT FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EAST WITH SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. EASTERLY WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY ABV FL120 AND REACH A MAXIMUM OF 65 KT ARND FL410.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO
6 FEET. SEAS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 5 FEET AND EAST WINDS BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS IN THE REST OF THE AREA. RELATIVE TRANQUIL SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER LATE THURSDAY CONTINUING THRU THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES BY NEXT MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 86 / 20 30 20 20
STT 75 87 76 86 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
608 AM AST WED MAR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOVES EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL FRIDAY. AT THAT POINT A SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND...THEN ERODING BEFORE A POSSIBLE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF THEM AFFECTING EASTERN PR AND THE NORTHERN
USVI...LEAVING TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THE MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS STEADY AT ABOUT 1.5
INCHES OF PW...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST...AND
SOUTHWEST PR WHILE THE REST OF PR AND THE USVI HAS ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE
CAP INVERSION FOR TODAY SHOULD NOT ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AS WELL AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE GENERAL WIND FLOW. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND WHEN THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE. FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
ERODE...MAINTAINING ZONAL FLOW...ALBEIT A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 80KT WINDS
AT 200MB FOR SUNDAY. FOR THIS WEEKEND ALSO...THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.9 INCHES OR SO AND THE
COLUMN OF MOISTURE IS DEEP IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WE STAY WITH THAT
ENHANCED MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...THE LOCAL WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RELAXING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE ENHANCED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS OF NOW THE LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS TJMZ BTW 02/17Z AND 02/23Z IN SHRA. VCSH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS FROM THE E-ENE AT 10-15KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ALL WEEK. AT THIS TIME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH END OF THE WEEK BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
ARRIVAL OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AROUND THE USVI...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND SOME BEACHES IN
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 74 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED MAR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...MINOR RIDGES LIKE THE ONE THAT
PASSED TODAY WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH STRONGER ONE
PASSING THROUGH ON THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. THEN A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
TROUGH PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF THE MONA
CHANNEL FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEPEN WEAKLY OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUNDAY...COINCIDING WITH A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LEAVING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
MONDAY WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE
AREA DURING NEXT WEEK AND WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO NORTHEAST FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO DISSIPATED...SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM
JUANA DIAZ TO CABO ROJO. THOSE EAST OF YAUCO ALSO DISSIPATED AFTER
3 PM AST AND ONLY MODERATE SHOWERS WERE LEFT IN PUERTO RICO IN THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. A TRACE OF A STREAMER REMAINED SOUTHWEST OF
SAINT CROIX OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. OVER THE WEEKEND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA.
IT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE WEAK PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA IN A FORK-LIKE
FORMATION...BUT MOISTURE PEAKS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITHOUT THE
MAXIMUM IN THE BROADER AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TJMZ UNTIL 02/23Z IN SHRA. VCSH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS FROM THE
E-ENE AT 10-15KT UNTIL 02/22 DECREASING IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL ENTERING
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAVE SEAS LESS THAN 7 FEET
EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND SEAS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 6
FEET AFTER TONIGHT. WITH THE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THEN. A SMALL
SWELL FROM THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS LOW WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
ENERGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 87 / 40 40 20 30
STT 75 81 75 84 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST THU MAR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOVES EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL FRIDAY. AT THAT POINT A SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND...ERODING THEREAFTER BEFORE A
AN UPPER LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. FEW OF THEM...IF ANY...REACHED LAND AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND SW QUADRANT OF PR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
REST OF PR AND THE USVI HAS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE CAP INVERSION FOR TODAY
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AS WELL
AS A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE GENERAL WIND
FLOW. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO ERODE...MAINTAINING ZONAL
FLOW...ALBEIT A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE OVER 90KT WINDS AT THE 250-200MB LEVEL
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR THIS WEEKEND ALSO...THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.8 - 1.9 INCHES OR SO AND
THE COLUMN OF MOISTURE IS DEEP IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WE STAY WITH
THAT ENHANCED MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY REACHING 1.9 - 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY
1.14 INCHES IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
EVEN DRIER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT
THIS IS FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DECREASES WITH EACH DAY OUT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA AFT 03/16Z MY AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
TJPS AND THEN AFT 03/18Z CONVECTION TO MOVE WEST...IN AND AROUND
TJMZ UNTIL 03/23Z OR SO. WINDS FROM THE EAST TO E-NE AT ABOUT
10-15KT TODAY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AROUND 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WIND SUP TO 15 KNOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AROUND THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST
OF PR AND SOME BEACHES IN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 20 20 30 30
STT 85 75 85 76 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU MAR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A PASSING RIDGE OVER THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. A JET MAX WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY DURING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A
WEAK TROUGH ON TUESDAY CONTINUING TO DIG...THROUGH FRIDAY...INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CULMINATING IN A SHARP
TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE DRY
UNTIL A FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES...WITH MOISTURE PEAKING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND NEARLY COMPLETE DRYING ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A WEAK TROUGH FORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE MONA CHANNEL IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TO NORTH OF US. A SECOND LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL
PROLONG THE TROUGH IN OUR AREA UNTIL A STRONG HIGH FOLLOWS IT
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING INCREASED WINDS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY BEGINNING THIS SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY VEERING WINDS AND BANDS OF DRY AIR...BUT THE PREVAILING AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO STREAMING OFF OF SAINT THOMAS AND VIEQUES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SAGGING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND WILL PROVIDE SOME MORE RAIN YET
TO THE THOSE AREAS. IN THE MEANTIME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND ALSO FROM
YAUCO TO AGUADA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS IN JUANA DIAZ...VILLALBA AND COAMO. THE LATTER SHOWERS
HAD POINTS THAT RECEIVED MORE THAN ONE INCH. JUDGING FROM CURRENT
PERFORMANCE...SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT AND WILL FORM
A LITTLE EARLIER TOMORROW.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE REACHING ABOVE 300 MB ON
SUNDAY AND TO NEARLY 300 MB ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS
THE AREA AND A JET TO THE NORTH AIDS IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DYNAMICS. THEN...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT ABRUPTLY ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LOW LEVELS
WILL TEND TO HAVE A LAYER OF VERY MOIST AIR THAT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SHALLOW SHOWERS FOR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERAL MORE DAYS
AFTERWARD...MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER PASSING SHRA
BETWEEN PR AND NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUD LAYERS. WINDS
FROM THE ENE TO E AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND
10 KNOTS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVR EASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PR DUE TO OCCASIONAL PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW 6 FEET TODAY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MONDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS NORTHERLY SWELL FROM
ANOTHER SYSTEM PILES IN. THE GFS IS NOW CREDITING SWELL WITH THE
HIGHER SEAS RATHER THAN WIND WAVES...BUT CLEARLY 10 FOOT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MARCH 9 DUE TO BOTH WINDS FROM THE INCREASED GRADIENTS DRIVEN BY
THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE SWELL FROM THE
STRONG STORM SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 74 89 / 20 30 30 40
STT 75 85 76 85 / 30 30 40 40