Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for the Northern Leewards ( Sint Marteen and Sint Barth) for a risk of strong showers and tstorms given our pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[Gustywind]

Msbee be on your guard tonight and tommorow in case of...

Gustywind

[msbee]

yes, we are watching.. everyone sort of holding their breath up here.

[cycloneye]

Stay safe all of you in the islands.Hopefully,99L does not develop overnight.

[cycloneye]

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser
Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better defined. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this
system could become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the
Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions could become
more conducive later this week while the system moves near the
southeastern and central Bahamas. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests from the islands of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...At upper levels...Weak high pressure will accompany
the strong tropical wave as it crosses the area today and
Thursday. Then northerly flow will persist until Sunday when the
effects of a trough moving toward the area will be felt. The
trough will cross through the U.s. Virgin Islands Monday and
followed by a modest ridge that will cause flow to strengthen
considerably late next week.

At mid levels...The mid level troughing accompanying the tropical
wave will be followed by very weak high pressure that intervenes
between the Caribbean and the potential Hurricane Gaston over the
weekend. During the up coming week, high pressure builds north of
the forecast area until a trough moves west over the area on
Friday of next week.

At lower levels...A strong tropical wave has only traces of
circulation indicated and will pass over the area today. Then
gradients will remain relatively weak over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands as Gaston intervenes between high pressure
just west of the Azore islands and the local area. High pressure
and moderate trade wind flow returns next week and continue
through the end of that week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
affected Puerto Rico north of the Cordillera Central and the
northern U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. Showers have become a
little more numerous in the pre-dawn hours and rain is expected
across the Northern tier of Puerto Rico this morning, with showers
continuing into the afternoon as the wind switches from northeast
to southeast rather abruptly later this morning.

Very vigorous displays of lightning have been seen north and
northeast of Guadeloupe and this area is slowly moving west
northwest. Isolated lighting strikes have occurred in the forecast
area and midway between saint Croix and Saint Kitts. Thunderstorm
activity will increase area-wide today.

Models appear to be in good agreement with the timing and
intensity of the rainfall and flash flooding potential
continues--especially for the eastern half of Puerto Rico this
morning and early afternoon. Drying was seen late this afternoon
over the southeast half of the forecast area, but another influx
of moisture is seen pushing into the area early Thursday morning
with showers likely again Thursday morning in the southeast half
of Puerto Rico.

The GFS continues with deep moisture through at least Sunday so
that fair weather is not expected in the area for almost the next
7 days. The upper level low northeast of the forecast area moves
closer during the week, but then dissipates and high pressure
replaces it north of the forecast area. Nevertheless the upper
level trough transiting the Caribbean on Monday should increase
the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean
will continue to move west-northwest impacting all terminals.
SHRA/TSRA associated to the wave will result in MVFR to IFR conds.
Showers and thunderstorms already affecting TNCM/TKPK are
expected to become more frequent through the early morning hours
across the northern/eastern terminals of PR and the USVI,
spreading across the rest of the terminals by 16z. Low level winds
expected to continue ENE at 7-15 knots thru 12z...veering ESE
afterwards. Gusty winds between 25-35 kts possible with TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Winds have been confined to the area northeast of a
northwest-southeast line through the low and apex of the wave.
Hence it appears that high seas and strong winds will be mostly
confined to the northeast corner of the forecast area. Winds of 18
knots sustained have been noted at buoy 41043. Recent gusts have
reached 25 knots, but 31 knots was noted around 24/01z. Although
the low/apex of the wave is very close, current forecasts are
showing these winds to remain north of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 76 / 80 80 70 40
STT 83 78 84 79 / 80 80 70 40

[Gustywind]

Orange alert have been activated this morning AT 447AM by Meteo-France Guadeloupe due to the arrival of 99L... and bad weather conditions should spread on us till Thursday morning.
Very strong showers on the whole island of Guadeloupe are expected. Thus, given Meteo-France this very active twave has a huge potential to be a TD.
Meteo-France reported 100 millimeters at la Désirade yesterday night, and 40 millimeters at le Moule.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf
Gustywind

[msbee]

good morning
all quiet here on St Maarten. gray, cloudy, drizzzly, mo significant rain over night.
Gusty, it looks like Guadeloupe is getting hammered.
Please be safe and keep reporting in.
Thanks

[Gustywind]

Folks in Guadeloupe!!! I've never understand why our Our Pro Mets of Guadeloupe never put at least a yellow alert yesterday afternoon like the Northern Leewards! I woke up with Orange alert my friends, that's insane from Meteo-France!
Even Barbara you asked me why and i was unable to answer you because of i was surprised and confused by this attitude of Meteo-France. I hate this too much confidence, seems very dangerous and "ridiculous". Guadeloupe experienced 100 millimeters at La Désirade, 40 millimeters at le Moule and others areas at 30 millimeters. That's a very dangerous and luckily we don't have any damages but the day is not ended. Another story showing us that we're hopefully blessed at least for now.
An islander of Guadeloupe resumed that strange attitude from our Pro Mets, that's why i've posted this one.

99L
•By Celeste Patrick <belrpat at wanadoo.fr>
•Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 06:57:08 -0400

I went to bed last nigth with our pro- mets saying everything is ok 99 l Will
stay North of us and I awake with flashflood warning and Guadeloupe in the
middle of the big red blob , ligtnings, Thunder and more rain to come ' Too
late folks for an alert that everybody was waiting yesterday.


http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/guadeloupe.shtml

[Gustywind]

good morning
all quiet here on St Maarten. gray, cloudy, drizzzly, mo significant rain over night.
Gusty, it looks like Guadeloupe is getting hammered.
Please be safe and keep reporting in.
Thanks

Thanks a lot Barbara . We experienced nice amounts in Guadeloupe yesterday night see my last report. Nothing bad in my location: light rains, grey, cloudy, sad drizzzly too. We continue to monitor closely the situation because of another rounds of showers are expected during the next couple of hours.
Stay safe and dry.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate
that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located over the northern Leeward Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are
showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack
a well-defined circulation. Although environmental conditions are
currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this
system could become a tropical depression at any time during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this
morning. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[msbee]

Folks in Guadeloupe!!! I've never understand why our Our Pro Mets of Guadeloupe never put at least a yellow alert yesterday afternoon like the Northern Leewards! I woke up with Orange alert my friends, that's insane from Meteo-France!
Even Barbara you asked me why and i was unable to answer you because of i was surprised and confused by this attitude of Meteo-France. I hate this too much confidence, seems very dangerous and "ridiculous". Guadeloupe experienced 100 millimeters at La Désirade, 40 millimeters at le Moule and others areas at 30 millimeters. That's a very dangerous and luckily we don't have any damages but the day is not ended. Another story showing us that we're hopefully blessed at least for now.
An islander of Guadeloupe resumed that strange attitude from our Pro Mets, that's why i've posted this one.

99L
•By Celeste Patrick <belrpat at wanadoo.fr>
•Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 06:57:08 -0400

I went to bed last nigth with our pro- mets saying everything is ok 99 l Will
stay North of us and I awake with flashflood warning and Guadeloupe in the
middle of the big red blob , ligtnings, Thunder and more rain to come ' Too
late folks for an alert that everybody was waiting yesterday.


http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/guadeloupe.shtml

That is crazy, Gusty. That's why I asked. It didn't seem to make any sense at all.

[msbee]

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate
that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located over the northern Leeward Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are
showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack
a well-defined circulation. Although environmental conditions are
currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this
system could become a tropical depression at any time during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this
morning. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Be careful in PR, Luis

[cycloneye]

Yes Barbara.It will rain a lot here today thru Thursday and the flooding is always a big problem here.Hopefully is only rain and not more.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/768435736638992385

[msbee]

Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles
Princess Juliana International Airport
latitude: 18-03N, longitude: 063-07W, elevation: 4 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 36 minutes ago, at 13:16 UTCWind 13 kt from the East/Southeast with gusts up to 33 kt, varying between East and South/Southeast Temperature 27°C Humidity 89% Pressure 1012 hPa Visibility: 2000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1100 ft, Towering cumulus.
Scattered clouds at a height of 3500 ft heavy rain showers

[msbee]

Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles
Princess Juliana International Airport
latitude: 18-03N, longitude: 063-07W, elevation: 4 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 23 minutes ago, at 14:00 UTC
Wind 28 kt from the Southeast with gusts up to 42 kt
Temperature 26°C
Humidity 100%Pressure 1012 h PaVisibility: 1000 m Overcast at a height of 1000 ft, Towering cumulus. heavy rain showers

[Gustywind]

Folks in Guadeloupe!!! I've never understand why our Our Pro Mets of Guadeloupe never put at least a yellow alert yesterday afternoon like the Northern Leewards! I woke up with Orange alert my friends, that's insane from Meteo-France!
Even Barbara you asked me why and i was unable to answer you because of i was surprised and confused by this attitude of Meteo-France. I hate this too much confidence, seems very dangerous and "ridiculous". Guadeloupe experienced 100 millimeters at La Désirade, 40 millimeters at le Moule and others areas at 30 millimeters. That's a very dangerous and luckily we don't have any damages but the day is not ended. Another story showing us that we're hopefully blessed at least for now.
An islander of Guadeloupe resumed that strange attitude from our Pro Mets, that's why i've posted this one.

99L
•By Celeste Patrick <belrpat at wanadoo.fr>
•Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 06:57:08 -0400

I went to bed last nigth with our pro- mets saying everything is ok 99 l Will
stay North of us and I awake with flashflood warning and Guadeloupe in the
middle of the big red blob , ligtnings, Thunder and more rain to come ' Too
late folks for an alert that everybody was waiting yesterday.


http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/guadeloupe.shtml

That is crazy, Gusty. That's why I asked. It didn't seem to make any sense at all.

Crazy is an euphemisma Barbara. Thanks for posting that. Right... no sense, what a pity , a classical attitude from Meteo-France! Again we escape luckily

[Gustywind]

Yes Barbara.It will rain a lot here today thru Thursday and the flooding is always a big problem here.Hopefully is only rain and not more.

Stay safe and dry Luis. Beneficial rains in tape if this scenario is confirmed... should be good news for you in PR , we keep our fingers crossed hoping for nothing more than rain rain

[Gustywind]

From our daily newspaper called " FranceAntilles" today... extracted from the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France this morning 5AM.
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=

Guadeloupe in orange alert for heavy rain and thunderstorms

Wednesday, August 24, 2016 - 7:07

Widespread and heavy rainstorms affecting our island since that night. They are associated with a very active tropical wave that has a good chance of turning into a tropical depression.
These strong rainfall are expected until Thursday morning at least. sometimes thundershowers taking a quasi-stationary nature alternate with more or less long lull episodes.
Very significant accumulations may occur in a short time, both the relief and as around the Pointoise agglomeration.
Since the beginning of the rainy period, we reported more than 110 mm at la Désirade, (80 mm in one hour). There were also 40 mm in one hour at le Moule.
Next newsletter: Wednesday noon.


How to behave

- Inquire before starting a movement and be very careful
- Avoid mountain walks and hikes in relief
- If you live in a flood zone, put your property safe susceptible to damage and monitor the rising water
- If your home may be threatened by a landslide, leave there or be prepared to evacuate quickly
During thunderstorms: Avoid using telephones and electrical appliances. Do not shelter in a wooded area, close to poles or posts, or under an isolated tree.