Teban54 wrote:
Wasn't Tokage's best track updated to 100kts at peak?
Yes, Someone replied in his post about that.
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Teban54 wrote:
Wasn't Tokage's best track updated to 100kts at peak?
Landy wrote:Well, with the new advisories released, we've just hit double digit ACE for NATL! Around 10.35 ACE.
Landy wrote:Well, with the new advisories released, we've just hit double digit ACE for NATL! Around 10.35 ACE.
NotSparta wrote:Landy wrote:Well, with the new advisories released, we've just hit double digit ACE for NATL! Around 10.35 ACE.
Also means we've passed 2013 at this point in time lol. Probably for good
Monsoonjr99 wrote:With Fiona and 98L both looking to be respectable ACE producers, any bets on 2022 NAtl finishing below average in ACE now look in jeopardy.
LarryWx wrote:Monsoonjr99 wrote:With Fiona and 98L both looking to be respectable ACE producers, any bets on 2022 NAtl finishing below average in ACE now look in jeopardy.
The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.
The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!
A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.
Ntxw wrote:LarryWx wrote:Monsoonjr99 wrote:With Fiona and 98L both looking to be respectable ACE producers, any bets on 2022 NAtl finishing below average in ACE now look in jeopardy.
The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.
The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!
A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.
Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.
aspen wrote:Ntxw wrote:LarryWx wrote:
The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.
The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!
A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.
Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.
That’s assuming Ian even gets stronger than 45 kt at this rate. There’s a slim but growing chance it never even hits hurricane intensity.
REDHurricane wrote:aspen wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.
That’s assuming Ian even gets stronger than 45 kt at this rate. There’s a slim but growing chance it never even hits hurricane intensity.
There is zero chance that Ian will not reach hurricane intensity at some point, it's already like halfway there
aspen wrote:Ntxw wrote:LarryWx wrote:
The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.
The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!
A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.
Ian, depending on track, would yield 10-15 additional units with 1.2 already in the books. Current forecast adds to about ~12 additional units. September definitely has carried a extra amount of units compared to average.
That’s assuming Ian even gets stronger than 45 kt at this rate. There’s a slim but growing chance it never even hits hurricane intensity.
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