#12852 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:02 am
I'm going to be honest here, I'm kind of lost on what exactly he is basing his idea that we're almost certain for an El Nino this year in that Tweet. I'm not exactly sure what "co2 fairy" and "Southern Hemisphere hotspots" mean as I've never heard of those terms before?
From what I understood earlier, we haven't even reached the SPB, and models seem to like the idea of enhanced trades through this month (as others have pointed out here in this thread). There seem to be a variety of factors that say "it's still too early" and "not so fast" to the idea that we are
certainly headed for El Nino this year. I'm not saying El Nino cannot happen this year. I still think there's a non-zero chance. It's just that I'd rather weigh both sides carefully, especially when we're in early February, before making definitive statements. And this year seems to be a much more volatile and challenging ENSO forecast than the previous 3 years when La Nina was basically guaranteed in advance.
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.