Category5Kaiju wrote:So I was just wondering this recently given the ENSO state going from La Nina to neutral (with many models at this point calling for El Nino later this year), but why did so many models bust with the El Nino prediction in 2017? Quite interestingly, the ENSO configuration in the EPAC as of now resembles 2017 in the sense that there are the anomalously warm 1-2 region and cool 3-4 region.
The case for El Nino was weak in 2017. Not a whole lot of heat below the surface and the atmosphere wasn't cooperating much. But there was surface warmth and a lot of model support