2023 EPAC Season
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
For a cold neutral MEI year, 2012 was more active than expected for the EPAC and less active for the Atlantic
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
If Webb is right, the EPAC 2023 season will be very active however, is still early and the SB is comming. See that post at the ENSO thread
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
>150 ACE is probably off limits unless we get +PDO to flip (January was progress in that regard) and the +PMM gets stronger in addition to ENSO cooperation.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:If Webb is right, the EPAC 2023 season will be very active however, is still early and the SB is comming. See that post at the ENSO thread
Active Epac means Atlantic will be
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
SFLcane wrote:cycloneye wrote:If Webb is right, the EPAC 2023 season will be very active however, is still early and the SB is comming. See that post at the ENSO thread
Active Epac means Atlantic will be
Well...2018 didn't really follow that patten
Just sayin'.
Also, 2016 and 2011 are some recent examples of years where the Atlantic and EPAC were above average, at least ACE-wise. You can definitely have a year where both basins are active.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
ECMWF has an active Pacific season and that is because is bullish on warm ENSO for the summer.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 2302010000
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 2302010000
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
A very active season is in the cards if El Niño comes and looks like the early signs point to that.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1630945738363670528
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1630945738363670528
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Reminder that only 2 of the 10 most active EPAC years were El Niño. I doubt we are breaking any sort of records this season.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Reminder that only 2 of the 10 most active EPAC years were El Niño. I doubt we are breaking any sort of records this season.
Didn't most of them happen pre-1995 (so during an inactive Atlantic era and when the AMO was -)?
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Reminder that only 2 of the 10 most active EPAC years were El Niño. I doubt we are breaking any sort of records this season.
When you say you doubt any records will be broken, what do you mean?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Reminder that only 2 of the 10 most active EPAC years were El Niño. I doubt we are breaking any sort of records this season.
When you say you doubt any records will be broken, what do you mean?
I don’t think we’re going to see the levels of activity we saw in 2014-18, at least not in 2015 and 2018 unless the PDO/PMM radically flip.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Looks like the PDO is warming.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
For Feb, PDO really cooled according to the JMA. Looks like it's holding steady so far but if El Nino is on its way it should start warming in late April.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Mar 22, 2023 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
that is a really classic -PDO. Look at how warm the CPAC mid latitudes are while the horseshoe region is cold.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Ok, I thought it was warming looking at that but you are saying, not yet. Does anyone has a graphic of what area of the Pacific is the PDO located?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Ok, I thought it was warming looking at that but you are saying, not yet. Does anyone has a graphic of what area of the Pacific is the PDO located?
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/clima ... nd-indices
https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Im keeping an eye on the waters off the west coast of North America and east of Japan. To my untrained eye it seems like there has been some cooling in the midlatitude portion of NW Pacific, and perhaps a bit of warming west of NA as well, although the bulk of the warmth is still in the midlatitudes of Central Pacific. Pretty exciting to watch how the SST configuration evolves in the coming months.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
What do the members think about the numbers of storms for this EPAC 2023 season?
I see a very active season with 20/11/5.
I see a very active season with 20/11/5.
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- Blown Away
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:What do the members think about the numbers of storms for this EPAC 2023 season?
I see a very active season with 20/11/5.
EPAC seems like it has been very active for a number of years now, so 20/11 is becoming somewhat of a normal season. Very active in past few La Niña years and now El Niño is supposed to really enhance EPAC. Maybe 30?
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