2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139192
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Unless the Atlantic changes as we get closer to the heart of the hurricane season I keep saying that this season will be for the records. Like for example last year the EPAC outperformed more than expected despite a La Nina year, perhaps the Atlantic may do something similar this year.
4 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139192
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Very toasty MDR with +3C anomalies in Eastern Atlantic right now but the question is if it will sustain for the next few weeks. The 15 days change looks cooler at the canary current and parts of MDR.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9615
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
cycloneye wrote:Very toasty MDR with +3C anomalies in Eastern Atlantic right now but the question is if it will sustain for the next few weeks. The 15 days change looks cooler at the canary current and parts of MDR.
https://i.imgur.com/3MwoJyw.png
https://i.imgur.com/0xFDek2.png
Lol the eastern Atl "has not" cooled to that point the problem is there are so many sst maps now a days it's honestly become a joke of sorts. To each there own
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
^That's what the labels are for Each map has its own purpose but sadly people would choose the wrong map to make their interpretations.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1658802435337469952
Such a dominating Africa standing wave. The huge +amo is likely responsible for this.
Such a dominating Africa standing wave. The huge +amo is likely responsible for this.
1 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 88
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:29 am
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1659042119833604097
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1659042576500924418
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1659144718607843329
The door is still open for a more active Atlantic hurricane season. One thing to note is how especially warm the Atlantic is right now which the plots show hasn't happened in contrast with a moderate or warmer el nino (this assumes that this level warmth holds until September).
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1659042576500924418
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1659144718607843329
The door is still open for a more active Atlantic hurricane season. One thing to note is how especially warm the Atlantic is right now which the plots show hasn't happened in contrast with a moderate or warmer el nino (this assumes that this level warmth holds until September).
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 184
- Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:49 am
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
2015 hurricane season was already woke in the eastern pacific at this point… I don’t see any signs of it waking up in the near future… I know that early season activity doesn’t correlate to overall activity but I feel that’s more for the Atlantic
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15955
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Deshaunrob17 wrote:2015 hurricane season was already woke in the eastern pacific at this point… I don’t see any signs of it waking up in the near future… I know that early season activity doesn’t correlate to overall activity but I feel that’s more for the Atlantic
Except 2015 didn’t see its first storm until 10 days from now and the high intraseasonal variability of the basin makes it hard for a small stretch (say 3-5 weeks) of the season to be a strong indicator of how the rest of the season will play out.
2 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3374
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
There are still more unknowns than certainties about how the 2023 season will pan out. However, what's for sure is the weaker the El Nino and the later it kicks in, the higher the potential for more activity with all else being equal.
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- Hurricane2022
- Category 4
- Posts: 931
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
- Location: Araçatuba, Brazil
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
4 likes
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
The MDR will only get warmer with all the westerlies. However, with a strong Atlantic ridge, the strong pressure gradient off the coast of Portugal will induce strong trades and cool off the Canary Current. That displaced ridge also allows troughs digging into the deep tropics, causing upper westerlies and strong shear.
3 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139192
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9615
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1660017670111256576
Time for the 2 dozen tweets how the precip means everything out to sea. Cant make that assumption
3 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9615
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
I know this is mostly concerning ENSO and probably not in the right thread but i think this cooling will have implications on the Atlantic season surely in my opinion. El nino is in no hurry
Last edited by SFLcane on Tue May 23, 2023 8:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
SFLcane wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1660017670111256576
Time for the 2 dozen tweets how the precip means everything out to sea. Cant make that assumption
Most likely not everything, but there are indications that the majority of tracks would/could/should be offshore of the US East Coast. Many of the analogs from the more trusted seasonal forecasts do include beast-systems from the past. So no guards should be let down and in particularly people in FL/Bahamas, Bermuda and US East Coast should be ready. We'll see how the water temperature profiles look in the summer and whether or not some of the water in the NW Atlantic that has been anomalously warm over most of the last several years but is cool this year reverses. Also SSTA's off the SEUS coast matter as far as potential ridging over top.
1 likes