ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
To me this looks like it still has a long way to go, gonna take some time before it consolidates. Still thinking a TS into CA is the most likely outcome.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low
pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea has diminished and not
become any better organized this afternoon. Although environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for further development
during the next several days while the system moves westward over
the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a tropical depression
could form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low
pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea has diminished and not
become any better organized this afternoon. Although environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for further development
during the next several days while the system moves westward over
the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a tropical depression
could form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
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- lilbump3000
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
There is almost nothing there. The Euro has a slight vorticity signal moving northwest over Hispaniola and a secondary, again slight, signal appearing in a couple of days. I don't think we're looking at the correct 'nothing'.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
tolakram wrote:There is almost nothing there. The Euro has a slight vorticity signal moving northwest over Hispaniola and a secondary, again slight, signal appearing in a couple of days. I don't think we're looking at the correct 'nothing'.
So is invest97L long gone or is there another system separate of this that may form?
Sorry to ask I’m just slightly confused as to what you were referring to.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Weathertracker96 wrote:tolakram wrote:There is almost nothing there. The Euro has a slight vorticity signal moving northwest over Hispaniola and a secondary, again slight, signal appearing in a couple of days. I don't think we're looking at the correct 'nothing'.
So is invest97L long gone or is there another system separate of this that may form?
Sorry to ask I’m just slightly confused as to what you were referring to.
So first thing I will point out, if we're just looking at the mid levels for now, this is where 97L has the most distinct signal. But it doesn't tell the entire story:
If we go down one more level to 850mb (~low levels), we can see things are getting a bit complicated. We have a trough extending off the east coast with an embedded low just east of Florida. This is extending down into the Caribbean now, and we have another low downstream near Jamaica. In addition, we have our tropical cyclone in the EPAC and then 97L off to our east.
So what does this all mean (besides that it's quite a complicated setup )? As the trough extends down into the Caribbean, expect multiple areas of vort lobes to form along the axis. Genesis could occur anywhere (and in multiple places) within that teal circle:
We can see in the GFS ensembles, there are two areas (associated with those two lows I mentioned) that most likely can initialize cyclogenesis, and how it all unfolds is still a bit murky (Halloween reference intended):
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
USTropics wrote:Weathertracker96 wrote:tolakram wrote:There is almost nothing there. The Euro has a slight vorticity signal moving northwest over Hispaniola and a secondary, again slight, signal appearing in a couple of days. I don't think we're looking at the correct 'nothing'.
So is invest97L long gone or is there another system separate of this that may form?
Sorry to ask I’m just slightly confused as to what you were referring to.
So first thing I will point out, if we're just looking at the mid levels for now, this is where 97L has the most distinct signal. But it doesn't tell the entire story:
https://i.imgur.com/pbo8pKP.png
If we go down one more level to 850mb (~low levels), we can see things are getting a bit complicated. We have a trough extending off the east coast with an embedded low just east of Florida. This is extending down into the Caribbean now, and we have another low downstream near Jamaica. In addition, we have our tropical cyclone in the EPAC and then 97L off to our east.
https://i.imgur.com/ooQT5ep.jpg
So what does this all mean (besides that it's quite a complicated setup )? As the trough extends down into the Caribbean, expect multiple areas of vort lobes to form along the axis. Genesis could occur anywhere (and in multiple places) within that teal circle:
https://i.imgur.com/U5lZK4U.jpg
We can see in the GFS ensembles, there are two areas (associated with those two lows I mentioned) that most likely can initialize cyclogenesis, and how it all unfolds is still a bit murky (Halloween reference intended):
https://i.imgur.com/rGPoCQH.png
Thank you for explaining the setup. It is complicated for sure
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low
pressure over the east-central Caribbean Sea remains disorganized.
While environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for
further development during the next several days, a tropical
depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system
moves generally westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America towards the end
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low
pressure over the east-central Caribbean Sea remains disorganized.
While environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for
further development during the next several days, a tropical
depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system
moves generally westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America towards the end
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
00z Best Track:
AL, 97, 2023110100, , BEST, 0, 156N, 699W, 25, 1008, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
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Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/zB4vr2pr/goes16-ir-97-L-202310312225.gif [/url]
15.6/69.9… Action brewing!
Exactly in the 00z best track position.
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- REDHurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Structure looks to be improving slightly, but I think the complex setup plus some wind shear are slowing down development for now. The disturbance just can't seem to get all the way under the ULAC, it's been sitting right on the edge for the past day or two and that might be a primary factor limiting convection in the area.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development in a
day or two, and a tropical depression could form when the system
moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the latter part of
this week. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this
week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Brown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development in a
day or two, and a tropical depression could form when the system
moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the latter part of
this week. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this
week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Brown
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- REDHurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
New dominant area trying to develop near Jamaica? The current disturbance is now almost completely devoid of thunderstorms, and this new area of increased convection is located in a more favorable shear environment -- either way it's going to have a hard time getting itself together into anything significant before landfall, definitely still not out of the question though.
ICON seems to be picking up on this as well:
ICON seems to be picking up on this as well:
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
12z Best Track:
AL, 97, 2023110112, , BEST, 0, 156N, 728W, 25, 1008, DB
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- CourierPR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Do my eyes deceive me or is 97L becoming better organized on satellite?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
From the flow of low level clouds around the area it looks like the circulation will be under the clouds south of Haiti, there is a ton of convection. The waters are a nice warm 30c+ and lower shear all signs of a good potential for tropical cyclonic development.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I don't see any surface circulation developing, but I do see considerable wind shear. Disturbance will be inland into Nicaragua on Saturday, likely without developing into a TS. That may bring an end to hurricane season, with the possible exception of the naming of an occluded low in the eastern Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
A couple of flops would be a good way to end the season. We dodged a boatload of bullets this year.
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