Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

* Breezy trade winds will prevail from today onward; possibly
becoming windy by this weekend.

* A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast from this evening
onwards.

* Pleasant temperatures will prevail across the USVI and PR
throughout the week.

* Periods of showers will affect mainly the windward locations of
the islands at times. Afternoon showers forecast today mainly
for interior to SW PR.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

Mostly quiet conditions prevailed overnight. Radar imagery showed
isolated showers over the local waters, with a few reaching the
windward sides of the islands. These produced no significant
impacts, and radar-estimated rainfall totals were minimal. Surface
observations indicated somewhat variable winds at 10 to 13 mph or
less with slightly higher occasional gusts. Minimum temperatures
ranged from the low to mid-70s across coastal areas and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and into the low 60s, or slightly lower, across
the mountains and interior valleys of Puerto Rico.

The short-term forecast remains on track. At the surface, high
pressure over the western Atlantic will shift eastward into the
central Atlantic through the forecast period, tightening the
pressure gradient and promoting a northeasterly flow across our
region. As a result, breezy trade winds are expected, particularly
today and Wednesday. Aloft, a shortwave trough will cross the
northeastern Caribbean today as a mid-level ridge migrates toward
the Cuba and Bahamas region. Under this pattern, an advective
trade- wind pattern will continue to dominate the short term,
supporting a low to moderate chance of nighttime showers across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward areas of Puerto Rico, and a
slight to moderate chance of afternoon convection over interior
and southwestern Puerto Rico each day. With increasing wind
speeds, showers will move quickly, further limiting rainfall
accumulations and keeping flood risk from none to very low.

Overall, expect quick-moving passing showers with little to no
flood threat. The primary weather impact today and Wednesday will
be the strengthening winds, which will result in breezy
conditions. Unsecured items may be blown around, particularly in
coastal areas.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast for the long term
period, particularly Saturday onwards as a surface high builds
over the Atlantic. Increasing moisture will maintain PWAT values
at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) with patches of drier and
slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of
moisture will promote showers steered by east-northeast, becoming
more northeasterly as the period progresses, flow to reach
windward sectors of the islands at times and promote a chance of
afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR. Flooding risks
are not forecast during the period. By Friday, the jet streak
will continue moving eastward and away from the area, while the
ridging weakens as a polar trough moves across the central
Atlantic. However, by Saturday and throughout the period, a high-
pressure system will build over the western to central Atlantic,
tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in increasing
winds. The breeziest days appear to be Sunday through Tuesday. 925
mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end
normal values for this time of the year. Supporting highs in
generally the 80s, with some coastal/urban areas in the 90s and
higher elevations of PR in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low
to mid 70s, with some urban/coastal areas in the upper 70s and
higher elevations of PR into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conds across all TAF sites with just VCSH across TJSJ/TJBQ &
TIST/TISX in the USVI this morning and thru the rest of the
forecast period. Main aviation concern: NE wind flow will
dominate, becoming breezy with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph or
slightly higher aft 25/13Z. VCSH possible bwn 25/15-21Z across
TJSJ and TJPS. Wind speeds becoming lighter aft 25/23Z, around 8
to 10 mph, with land breeze variation overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

A building high-pressure system moving into the central Atlantic
will bring increasing moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over
the next few days. Confused seas are forecast as locally choppy wind
waves combine with an incoming northeasterly swell through tomorrow,
Wednesday. Small craft operators should exercise caution; small
craft advisories likely for tomorrow evening. Increasing winds and
building seas are also forecast by Saturday night and into the
weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

The risk of rip currents will remain low until this evening along
all local beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By
this evening, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as for
eastern St. Croix. Coverage of the moderate risk of rip currents
will increase to the northern USVI, Vieques and areas of southern
Puerto Rico as the week continues. By Thursday and Friday, a high
risk of rip currents is possible along north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico. High risk of rip currents are also forecast to start
the next workweek. Always check the beach forecast before heading
out, and avoid swimming at beaches with a high risk of rip
currents.