Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
353 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

* Unsettled weather across Puerto Rico today, with periods of
showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the
afternoon hours, leading to localized ponding of water in
urban and low-lying areas.

* More unstable conditions expected from Thursday into Friday across
the islands, as a wetter and more dynamic pattern increases
the potential for widespread showers, thunderstorms, and
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.

* Moderate risk of rip currents across northern and exposed
beaches, with hazardous marine conditions promoting life-
threatening currents in the surf zone.

* Variable weather conditions across the U.S. Virgin Islands,
with passing showers at times, but overall limited duration of
rainfall activity.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A fairly active weather pattern was observed overnight, with
persistent showers from Luquillo westward into Morovis. Showers
were strong, especially around 12 AM across Corozal, Morovis,
Naranjito, and along Rio Grande and Canovanas. By 2 AM, showers
had diminished across the interior sections, but were still
spreading northward into Dorado, Toa Alta, Manati, and Vega Baja.
This increase in showers led to rises along small streams across
most of the affected municipalities. Several flood advisories and
warnings were in effect from late night into the early morning
hours. As of 3 AM, the bulk of the showers was affecting
municipalities from Manati eastward into the San Juan area.
Rainfall accumulations were significant across most of the
interior areas; radar estimates ranged from 2 to 5 inches, with
the highest amounts in Corozal, Morovis, and Naranjito, where
estimates reached 9 inches. Overnight temperatures were in the low
60s across the mountain areas, with some upper 50s due to the
persistent shower activity, while coastal areas remained in the
mid-70s.

For today, a similar weather pattern is expected, with a mid-
level closed low promoting instability and favorable conditions
for a convective pattern, leading to the development of strong
showers across the region. At the surface, winds will remain from
the east-southeast in response to a combination of a surface high
pressure extending from the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean
and an elongated surface trough. All that, and instability aloft
from a 250 MB +80 knots jet stream will result in another active
day. Therefore, residents and visitors can expect moderate to
strong showers in the northeastern sections in the morning,
followed by deep convection across the northwestern quadrant. With
the heaviest showers, urban flooding is expected along with rapid
rises in small streams across the interior and western PR.

On Thursday into Friday, the overall synoptic pattern is forecast
to transition to a more unstable and dynamically favorable regime
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by a deep
upper-level trough interacting with a strengthening subtropical
jet. This interaction will result in a jet streak exceeding 100
knots across the region, enhancing upper-level divergence and
promoting large-scale ascent, which will in turn support a more
active convective pattern across the islands. Model guidance
indicates a notable cooling aloft, with 500 mb temperatures
decreasing to around -9 to -10 °C, contributing to increased
instability, while a deep layer of moisture will be present as
relative humidity values between 850 and 500 mb rise to levels
exceeding two standard deviations above climatological normals,
indicating an anomalously moist column. At the surface,
precipitable water values are expected to range between 1.75 and
1.90 inches, near the 75th percentile for this time of year,
providing sufficient moisture for widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Overall, this combination of strong
upper-level forcing, increased instability, and abundant moisture
will support a wetter and more active weather pattern, with an
increased potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall,
particularly during the afternoon and evening hours, along with an
elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding in susceptible
areas.


&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A mid- to upper-level low will move northeast of the northeastern
Caribbean between Saturday and Sunday. This feature will induce
trade wind perturbations that will periodically move across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, promoting passing showers,
particularly across windward areas. Expect a variable pattern
through the weekend, with a mix of sunshine and brief periods of
showery weather, mainly during the overnight and morning hours as
these disturbances advect across the region. During the afternoon
hours, local effects and sea breeze convergence will support
isolated to scattered convection, mainly across the interior and
southwestern Puerto Rico.

From Monday through midweek, a mid- to upper-level trough
interacting with an approaching frontal boundary will promote a more
unsettled, wetter pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Increasing moisture and instability will support a higher
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy to locally windy
conditions are also possible as winds strengthen behind the frontal
boundary.

Coastal conditions will deteriorate during this period. A long-
period northerly swell arriving late Monday night could produce
dangerous breaking waves and hazardous coastal conditions through at
least midweek, peaking around Tuesday.

The potential impacts for the first part of the holiday week include
urban and small-stream flooding, a limited risk of flash flooding,
isolated thunderstorms with lightning, breezy to windy conditions,
life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and possible coastal
flooding along vulnerable north- and west-facing coastlines.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals; however,
VCSH and SHRA will persist along TJSJ until 25/15Z. Brief MVFR to
IFR conditions are anticipated across TJSJ and TJBQ from 25/16Z
to 25/21Z due to passing SHRA, with lower CIGS and reduced
VIS possible. Shower activity developing across the interior and
western mountains will result in cloud coverage affecting FL020 to
FL060. Winds will remain generally from the E to ENE at around
10–15 knots, with higher gusts near shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A weak surface high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic will
merge with a stronger high pressure over the north central Atlantic
by the end of the workweek. This will promote light to moderate
trades for the next several days. Seas will remain at 5 feet or less
through the weekend. Late in the weekend and into early next week, a
large swell is forecast to build seas up to 10 feet across the
Atlantic waters and passages. Also, winds will increase around 20
knots due to an approaching front and stronger surface high pressure
developing over the western Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail through the
weekend across the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, and
across the U.S. Virgin Islands. A moderate risk means that life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, as rip
currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. By
early next week, a large northerly swell and increasing winds will
cause large breaking waves that can lead to high surf conditions and
minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic coastlines of the
islands.

[TomballEd]

Saw 100 knot jet streak mentioned. Here in Texas that might suggest severe weather, even hail. I imagine hail is infrequent that far south but does it happen at all?

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
409 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

* Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend, bringing
periods of showers and a few thunderstorms, especially during
the afternoon. This may lead to urban and small stream flooding,
along with quick rises in rivers and streams, particularly in
areas that receive repeated rainfall.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms may lead to ponding of water and on roads and in
low-lying areas.

* A moderate risk of rip current will continue across the northern
and eastern beaches. These currents can still pull swimmers
away from shore, even in otherwise calm-looking conditions.

* Marine and coastal conditions will deteriorate early next week
as a northerly swell arrives. This will likely result in Small
Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements. In addition,
hazardous breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions are
expected, and high Surf Advisories cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

Doppler radar detected shower activity developing over the waters
during the nighttime hours, with some showers occasionally
brushing the windward coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. This activity is associated with well-above-normal
moisture that persists across the region. Blended Total
Precipitable Water (TPW) satelite data indicate values at 120 to
140 percent of normal, indicating a significant positive moisture
anomaly relative to climatology. This above-normal moisture is
also reflected at mid-levels, as indicated by 850-700 mb and
700-500 mb Advected Layered Precipitable Water (ALPW) satellite
data.

Expect showery weather pattern to persist through the morning
hours across eastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the smaller
islands. This will result in ponding of water on roadways and in
poorly-drained areas. Occasionally, these showers may become heavy
for short durations, reducing visibility and creating slippery
road conditions. For this afternoon, another active period is
expected as aboven-normal moisture combines with diurnal heating
and local effects. Under southeasterly steering winds, expect
showers and isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the
interior, eventually moving and redeveloping over the northwestern
quadrant of Puerto Rico. Streamers downstream of El Yunque could
also affect the San Juan metropolitan area.

For the rest of the short-term period, a more unsettled weather
pattern is expected to develop. Currently, a deep-layered trough
is impacting the western Caribbean, particularly over Cuba. This
trough will move eastward and deepen in the vicinity of Puerto
Rico and the USVI, particularly to the north, although the
southern edge of the trough will extend over the area. Model
guidance suggest that this feature will evolve into a cut-off low,
with a 100-knot subtropical jet over the forecast area, which
will enhance divergence and ventilation aloft.

The GFS Galvez-Davison Index indicates the potential for heavy-
producing showers and thunderstorms. Therefore, expect a limited
to elevated flooding threat. Excessive runoff may be particularly
enhanced due to saturated soils fro previous rainfall, further
increasing the flooding risk. Elevated streamflows are also
present and could result in river overflows in watershed basins
receiving the highest rainfall accumulations. Gust wind conditions
capable of blowing around loose objects and tree limbs may also
occur with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms. Landslides
cannot be ruled out in areas of steep terrain.

A gradual decrease in the frequency of showers and thunderstorms
is anticipated on Saturday. This is likely due to the induced
surface trough northeast of Puerto Rico, which will promote
northerly winds and advect a drier airmass over the region. Model
guidance suggests that relative humidities at 850-700 mb and
700-500 mb will plummet to near- or below-normal levels by the
end of the period. As a result a reduction in rainfall activity
will lead to improved weather conditions, with lower flooding
potential across the islands. However, lingering moisture and
local effects could still support isolated showers over the area.



&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A persistent subtropical jet stream will remain over the region
while a series of short-wave troughs pass just north of the area,
providing periods of favorable upper-level support for ascent. At
the surface, a strengthening high pressure system over the western
Atlantic will promote prevailing northeast winds. Winds will start
moderate to fresh on Sunday, then quickly increase to fresh to
strong through midweek, becoming more easterly by late Wednesday
night. Sunday will be relatively drier as a mid-level ridge promotes
subsidence and drier air entrainment, limiting vertical development.
From Monday onward, the ridge weakens, allowing deeper moisture to
spread across the region and resulting in a wetter and more unstable
pattern. Stronger winds will favor frequent passing trade wind
showers throughout the day, with additional convection and possible
afternoon thunderstorms depending on local conditions and available
heating.

Hazard risks are expected to increase through the period, although
some uncertainty remains regarding the exact magnitude and timing of
impacts. Wind impacts will begin on Sunday and become elevated by
midweek, resulting in breezy to windy conditions that may affect
outdoor activities and travel. Although conditions on Sunday will be
relatively drier, localized flooding impacts remain possible.
Flooding risk is expected to increase from Monday onward, supporting
elevated to locally significant impacts, including urban and small-
stream flooding and a limited risk of flash flooding. Thunderstorm
chances will also increase through the period, with lightning and
erratic wind behavior posing additional hazards. Overall, conditions
are expected to transition from relatively low hazard levels on
Sunday to a more active pattern by midweek, with wind, rainfall, and
lightning risks all trending upward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail across all terminals, however, brief
MVFR/IFR conds are posbl due to reduced VIS/CIGs in SHRA/TSRA,
especially during afternoon hrs. VCSH will affect TIST/TISX, with
VCTS/TSRA posbl across interior and W PR, mainly impacting
TJBQ/TJSJ/TJPS. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA may result in mtn obsc across
interior PR. Winds may become light/vrb overnight, then increase
after 26/14Z. Sfc winds will be ESE-SE at 8-15 kt with higher gust
near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A surface high pressure will develop over the north central Atlantic
during the next few days, and settle over the Azores late in the
weekend. Meanwhile, a series of weak surface troughs are expected to
linger over the northeastern Caribbean through the end of the week,
before another front moves over the local area early next week. This
weather pattern will promote mostly light to moderate east to
southeast trades through early Friday, before turning more east to
northeast for the rest of the period. Stronger winds are expected
with the approaching front.

Seas will remain at 5 feet or less through the weekend. Marine
conditions will gradually deteriorate early next week, as a large
swell is forecast to build seas up to 10 feet and spread across
the local Atlantic waters and passages for most of the workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail through the
weekend across the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, and
across the U.S. Virgin Islands. A moderate risk means that life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, as rip
currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.
Across the southern and western beaches of PR, the risk will remain
low through the period. However, by early next week, a large
northerly swell and increasing winds will cause large breaking waves
that can lead to high surf conditions and minor coastal flooding, as
well as life-threatening rip currents along the Atlantic coastlines
of the islands.

[cycloneye]

Saw 100 knot jet streak mentioned. Here in Texas that might suggest severe weather, even hail. I imagine hail is infrequent that far south but does it happen at all?

Sometimes hail falls especially in the mountains with a strong thunderstorm.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
133 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

* An unsettled and wet weather pattern driven by a trough will
continue across the region, with the most active period expected
today and tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

* This may lead to urban and small stream flooding, along with quick
river rises and streams in areas receiving repeated rainfall.
Landslides and rockfall are also possible with this setup. Some
thunderstorms may reach near-severe strength, producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and pea-sized hail.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers and isolated
thunderstorms may result in ponding of water on roads and in low-
lying areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate early
next week as a northerly swell arrives. This will likely result in
Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements, with hazardous
breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions possible. High Surf
Advisories cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

Early in the night, the most active portion of the trough was
located north of Puerto Rico, accompanied by a line of strong
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms were evident in GOES-19 infrared
imagery and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data. Most of
the activity remained over Atlantic waters, although some brushed
the northern narrow strip of Puerto Rico. Expect this pattern to
persist for the rest of the night into the morning hours.

As previously discussed, a wet and unsettled weather pattern is
expected today though at least Saturday, with today and tonight
being the most active period as the trough deepens into a cutoff low
at upper levels. The most active portion of the trough is still
expected to remain to the north. However, the subtropical jet will
intensify into a 90-100-knot jet streak near or over the forecast
area, enhancing divergence and ventilation aloft. Cold air advection
at mid-levels will result in 500 mb temperatures dropping to
between -8 to -10 Celsius, prompting steeper lapse rates across
the area.

These favorable dynamics will combine with well above-normal column
moisture. Therfore, expect another active day, particularly in the
afternoon, as favorable dynamics and above-normal moisture interacts
with diurnal heating and local effects. Elevated streamflows and
saturated soils from previous rainfall will increase the risk of
flooding. According to model guidance, largest rainfall
accumulations are expected over interior and western/northwestern
Puerto Rico this afternoon under a southeasterly wind flow. At
coastal areas, particularly along rivers such as Rio Culebrina,
Guanajibo, Anasco, Manati and others, overflow is possible due to
excess runoff from earlier rainfall. This could impact roads and low-
water crossings may become impassable, especially at night when
flood hazards are more difficult to recognize. Landslides and
rockfall are also possible with this setup. Given the favorable
upper-level dynamics, some thunderstorms may reach near-severe
strength, producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and pea-sized
hail, particularly in the mountains.

By tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will depend on the
position of the trough relative to the overall wind pattern. Model
guidance suggest winds will back from east-southeast to east -
northeast during the night. This could result in more erratic shower
and thunderstorm movement and may also lead to the development of
convergence zones across the area. Most of the activity is still
expected to remain over Atlantic waters. However, special attention
should be given this evening as conditions evolve, particularly
across the northeastern portion of the CWA.

Saturday looked to be transitioning day in previous model cycles.
However, the latest model guidance indicates drier air filtering
in later than previously suggested, arriving during the evening
and nighttime hours.As a result, another active afternoon is
expected with activity focused more over interior and southwestern
Puerto RIco. From Saturday through Sunday, drier air will
gradually move in, leading to a reduction in rainfall activity and
improved weather conditions, along with a lower flooding
potential across the islands. However, lingering moisture and
local effects could still support isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the area.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A persistent subtropical jet will remain over the region, supporting
period of favorable conditions as embedded disturbances pass nearby.
At the surface, a strengthening high over the western-central North
Atlantic will promote breeze to windy northeast flow early in the
week, briefly shifting more east to east-northeast before a surface
trough develops to the northeast. Moisture will increase rapidly
after early Monday, with precipitable water values rising to well
above normal and remaining elevated through the period. Despite some
lingering mid-level dryness early on, conditions will support daily
shower and thunderstorm development, along with increasing trade wind
shower activity.

Hazard risks will increase through the period as a wetter and more
unstable pattern becomes established. Flooding impacts will become
more likely from Monday onward, particularly in urban and poorly-
drained areas, and may be exacerbated over saturated soils. Breezy
to windy conditions will persist, and thunderstorms may produce
lightning and locally erratic winds. Confidence is medium in an
active pattern, and uncertainty remains in the timing and intensity
of embedded features that may enhance rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A trough will promote SHRA/TSRA resulting in MVFR/IFR conds at times
due to reduced VIS/CIGs in SHRA/TSRA. Mostly VCSH/VCTS will affect
TIST/TISX, with VCTS/TSRA posbl across interior and W/NW PR, mainly
impacting TJBQ/TJSJ/TJPS. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA may result in mtn obsc
across interior PR. Winds may become light/vrb overnight with higher
gusts near SHRA/TSRA, then increase after 27/14Z. Sfc winds will be
ESE-SE at 8-15 kt with higher gust near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A surface high pressure will develop over the north central Atlantic
during the next few days, and settle over the Azores late in the
weekend. Meanwhile, a series of weak surface troughs are expected to
linger over the northeastern Caribbean through the end of the week,
before another front approaches the region early next week. This
weather pattern will promote mostly light to moderate east to
southeast trades through early tomorrow, before turning more east to
northeast for the rest of the period. Stronger winds are expected
with the approaching front, becoming moderate to locally fresh. Seas
will remain between 3 and 5 feet through the weekend.

Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate by Monday, as a large
swell is forecast to build seas up to 10 feet and spread across the
local Atlantic waters and passages for most of the workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A low to moderate risk of rip currents continues across the beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, expected to persist this
weekend. Although there isn't a high risk, beachgoers must exercise
caution, as life-threatening rip currents are still possible along
beaches under a moderate risk. The beach forecast remains on track
for the first part of the week. A large swell is expected to arrive
and spread across the local Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages
by Monday night into early Tuesday. From the latest model guidance,
seas up to 10 feet and periods between 11 and 12 seconds are likely
to produce large breaking waves along north-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These breaking waves could result
in life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions, while
coastal flood conditions cannot be ruled out. Residents and visitors
are encouraged to continue to stay informed and updated with the
latest beach forecast.

Besides rip currents, beachgoers are encouraged to stay weather
alert for the rest of the afternoon and tomorrow Friday due to
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving over coastal areas of
northwestern Puerto Rico likely to produce lightning.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
424 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

* A wet and unsettled weather pattern will persist across the
region today, with the most active period expected during the
afternoon hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are likely, particularly across interior and western/southwestern
Puerto Rico.

* This may lead to urban and small stream flooding, along with quick
river rises, especially in areas that have received recent
rainfall. The strongest thunderstorms may also produce gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected, with periods of ponding of water on
roads and in low-lying areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate early
next week as a northerly swell arrives. This will likely result
in Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements, with
hazardous breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions possible.
High Surf Advisories cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

A fairly active afternoon and evening was observed across Puerto
Rico on Friday, with several Flood Advisories, Flash Flood Warnings,
and Flood Warnings issued. Heavy rainfall resulted in flooding
reports, mostly over portions of Puerto Rico, including reports of
the Rio Culebrinas out of its banks. By early in the night,
thunderstorm activity gradually diminished, transitioning into more
stratified rainfall as the most active convection shifted away from
the region.

The overall pattern has not changed much, with a wet and unsettled
weather pattern expected to persist. For today, winds will gradually
shift from east-southeast to east-northeast to northeast, promoting
a more focused area of convection across interior and southwestern
Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Although slight warming
aloft will result in somewhat reduced instability compared to
previous days, conditions will remain favorable for shower and
thunderstorm development. In addition, the 90-100 kt subtropical jet
will remain better positioned aloft, enhancing upper-level
ventilation and potentially adding intensity to thunderstorm
activity this afternoon. Given recent rainfall, soils remain
saturated, and streamflows are elevated. Therefore, any additional
rainfall will increase the risk of urban and small stream flooding,
as well as rapid river rises. Flooding impacts could develop
quickly, particularly across interior and western/southwestern
Puerto Rico. Landslides and rockfalls will also remain possible in
areas of steep terrain.

By Sunday, conditions are expected to improve as drier air filters
into the region. Model guidance indicates 700-500 mb relative
humidity values decreasing from well above normal levels, previously
exceeding two standard deviations above climatology, to below
normal levels. This will result in a reduction in shower and
thunderstorm activity, making Sunday the driest day of the period.
However, isolated afternoon convection cannot be ruled out,
particularly across western/southwestern Puerto Rico.

On Monday, moisture will increase once again, with precipitable
water values rising to near or above normal levels and mid-level
moisture rebounding to around 40-60 percent. Under a
northeasterly wind flow and continued troughiness aloft, another
round of afternoon convection is expected. Activity is expected to
be less widespread compared to previous days, but localized heavy
rainfall will still be possible. Overall, despite a brief
improvement on Sunday, the combination of saturated soils,
elevated rivers, and additional rounds of convection will continue
to pose a flooding risk through the period.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

Strong low to mid level high pressure will maintain a strong
northeasterly wind flow through much of the workweek. The steering
flow is expected to be at 15 to 25 kts. At the upper level, the jet
stream will maintain speeds of nearly 80 knots. Under the low level
winds, weak disturbances will stream at times across the islands.
This will maintain the probability of precipitation on the medium
and high side. In general, showery weather will persist for most of
the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Then, in the afternoon,
diurnal heating will trigger showers and thunderstorm along the
interior and western Puerto Rico. Because the winds are expected to
be strong, the risk of flooding will be mostly limited. Impacts may
include hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility and
ponding of water. In the west, urban and small stream flooding could
still occur, although not widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail across most terminals. Sct SHRA ovr
lcl waters and btw terminals may cause brief MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS. Aft
28/16z, SHRA/TSRA incr across PR, mainly affecting interior/W & S
terminals (TJBQ/TJPS) with TEMPO MVFR/IFR conds. VCTS exp at
TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ, with PROB30 TSRA at TJBQ/TJPS. USVI (TIST/TISX), VFR
prevails with VCSH and brief MVFR psbl. Winds lgt/VRB bcmg E-NE
8-14 kt aft 14z, with higher gusts near TSRA and sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

A mid to upper-level trough will continue to promote unstable
weather across the region today, supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A surface inverted trough northeast of the area will
maintain light to moderate east-northeast winds this afternoon,
increasing to moderate to fresh on Sunday and resulting in choppy
seas. A cold front will approach from the western Atlantic early next
week, followed by stronger winds for the rest of the week. In
addition, a long- period northerly swell will build across the local
waters beginning late Monday night, leading to hazardous marine
conditions through at least Thursday. These conditions will be
dangerous for small craft operators.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026


Today, a moderate risk of rip currents persists along the north-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
while south-facing beaches and Vieques will experience a low risk.
Beachgoers should continue to exercise caution as a moderate risk
means that life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf
zones.

Beach conditions are expected to worsen early next week. The arrival
of a long-period northerly swell, combined with strengthening winds
from late Monday night through the rest of the week, will likely
lead to a high risk of rip currents along exposed coastlines.
Hazardous surf and life-threatening rip currents are anticipated,
especially along north-facing beaches.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
442 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

* A drier and generally fair weather pattern will prevail today,
with limited shower activity and mostly fair weather conditions
across Puerto Rico.

* Moisture will gradually increase starting Monday as a frontal
boundary approaches from the northwest, leading to a return of
more frequent showers and afternoon convection, especially
across interior and southwestern Puerto Rico.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mainly passing showers are
expected through Monday, followed by a noticeable increase in
shower activity by Tuesday as deeper moisture spreads into the
area.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate early
next week as a northerly swell arrives and winds increase. This
will likely result in Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current
Statements, with hazardous breaking waves and dangerous surf
conditions possible.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

A drier and generally fair weather pattern is expected to prevail
across the region today as a relatively dry air mass filters in
under an east-northeasterly wind flow. Model guidance indicates
precipitable water values near to slightly below climatological
normals, supporting limited shower development. Any activity that
forms will be brief and primarily affect windward areas during the
morning, followed by isolated convection across interior and
southwestern Puerto Rico during the afternoon. Overall, rainfall
coverage and intensity will remain minimal. Temperatures will stay
seasonable to slightly cool, especially across higher elevations.

By Monday, conditions begin to transition as moisture gradually
increases across the region ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. This change is accompanied by a tightening pressure
gradient between a building surface high over the western Atlantic,
in the wake of the boundary, and the frontal boundary to the
northwest. As a result, 925 mb winds increase notably, promoting a
stronger east-northeasterly flow across the local area. This
enhanced low-level flow will advect patches of moisture into the
region, with precipitable water values rising to near or above
normal levels, and 700-500 mb relative humidity increasing to nearly
two standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Expect
more frequent passing showers across windward areas during the
morning, followed by increased afternoon convection across interior
and southwestern Puerto Rico. While instability remains modest, the
combination of moisture and stronger low-level winds will support
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.

On Tuesday, the frontal boundary draws closer to the region, further
tightening the pressure gradient and maintaining elevated low-level
winds. Moisture content continues to increase, with precipitable
water values exceeding climatological thresholds and deep-layer
humidity becoming more favorable for widespread cloud development.
This will lead to a more active weather pattern, with scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms developing across the
Atlantic waters and spreading into the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. Afternoon convection across interior and
western/southwestern Puerto Rico will become slightly more
widespread, supported by local effects and a lingering troughiness
aloft. The combination of stronger winds and higher moisture content
may result in periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Given
antecedent conditions, there will be an elevated risk of localized
flooding, particularly in urban areas, poorly drained locations, and
along rivers and streams. Nevertheless, faster steering winds will
help limit rainfall accumulations as showers move more quickly
across the region.

In summary, a relatively dry and generally fair weather pattern
today will give way to a progressively more unsettled regime by
early next week, driven by increasing moisture, strengthening low-
level winds associated with a tightening pressure gradient, and the
approach of a frontal boundary.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

High pressure centered well north in the Atlantic and an induced
surface trough northeast of the islands will maintain a strong
northeasterly wind flow through the end of the week. As the surface
trough moves north of the island on Friday and the weekend, the
winds will shift from the southeast. It will be breezy through at
least Thursday, with speeds of 15 to 20 knots. On Wednesday and
Thursday, under the northeasterly wind flow, the surface trough will
push a drier air mass above the 700 mb-layer into the northeastern
Caribbean. As a result, precipitable water values will drop to near
normal values for this time of the year. On these days, the focus of
rain should be in the northeast and the Virgin Islands early in the
day, followed by stronger showers in the afternoon for the interior
and southwest. The atmosphere does not look particularly favorable
for heavy rainfall accumulations, although the mid-levels will be
cool enough for at least for isolated lightning each afternoon.

Moving into the end of the week and the weekend, a new upper level
low will dig from the southeastern United States. For Friday and
Saturday, the latest guidance show a vorticity maximum at the upper
levels, with some low level convergence too. However, some dry
intrusion persist in the mid-levels. Since the winds will shift
from the southeast, diurnal heating is expected to be stronger.
Therefore, there is a medium chance that showers may grow enough to
break through the drier air, and reaching the favorable conditions
aloft. For now, the forecast call for stronger thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours, but moderate rainfall accumulations, focused along
the interior and western municipalities of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected across all TAF sites thru the pd. Sfc
winds generally light/VRB ovrnght, bcmg E-ENE 8-12 kt aft 29/13Z,
with ocnl higher gusts. Limited SHRA activity expected due to
drier airmass, though brief -SHRA psbl ovr windward areas btwn
29/12-16Z. Aftn convection may support iso SHRA ovr interior/west
PR, but impacts to TAF sites expected to remain minimal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

A surface inverted trough located northeast of the local islands
will sustain light to moderate east-northeast winds early today, but
winds will be increasing to moderate to fresh by the afternoon,
resulting in choppy seas. Additionally, winds will pick up after a
cold front moves toward the region from the Western Atlantic by
Monday. Furthermore, another long-period northerly swell will create
hazardous marine conditions, expected to last through the entire
week. These conditions will be dangerous for small craft
operators.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

Today, the moderate risk of rip currents continues along the
northwest, north, and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra.
Also, across the U.S. Islands tonight. This means that life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zones, as a result
beachgoers should exercise caution. From Monday night into the rest
of the week, beach conditions are anticipated to become hazardous
due to the arrival of a long-period northerly swell combined with
increasing winds. Life-threatening rip currents will be likely in
the surf zones and dangerous surf conditions along the north-facing
exposed coastlines cannot be ruled out. Residents and visitors are
urged to monitor the forecast and alerts over the coming days.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions are ongoing across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and will persist, creating
hazardous conditions across exposed areas and driving overall
impacts.

* Marine conditions are deteriorating across the local waters due
to increasing winds, with hazardous conditions for small craft
already developing. Conditions will worsen further starting
Monday night as a northerly swell arrives.

* Life-threatening rip current conditions will develop starting
tonight along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands and continue through midweek.

* Localized flooding is possible across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands due to frequent trade wind showers and afternoon
convection, particularly in urban areas, poorly drained
locations, interior and western Puerto Rico, and any areas with
saturated soils.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Overnight, an increase in trade wind showers was observed moving
inland from the Atlantic waters, with some reaching interior
portions of Puerto Rico due to strong steering winds. These
showers produced isolated rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.50
inches. Overnight low temperatures dropped into the mid 50s
across higher elevations and mid 60s across lower elevations,
reflecting slightly cooler-than-normal conditions that are
expected to continue over the next few days. Breezy to locally
windy northeasterly winds will persist across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by a strong surface high pressure over
the western Atlantic. This pattern will continue to support
frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and
early morning hours across windward areas. Aloft, a jet stream and
a weak shortwave trough north of the region may help support
slightly deeper moisture and limited instability starting Tuesday.

Moisture will vary from time to time, with periods of drier and
wetter air moving across the region. By Tuesday, a patch of higher
moisture, possibly linked to remnants of a frontal boundary to
the north, will move across the area, allowing for more active
shower development. Afternoon heating will help showers grow over
land, especially across interior and western Puerto Rico,
following a typical pattern of morning showers in windward areas
and afternoon activity inland.

The main hazards will be localized flooding and breezy to windy
conditions. While showers will move quickly, recent rainfall may
have left soils sensitive, increasing the risk of ponding of water
and minor flooding in urban areas, roads, and small streams. This
risk will be higher in areas that receive frequent trade wind
showers or repeated afternoon activity, particularly across
interior and west to southwestern Puerto Rico. In addition, breezy
to locally strong winds may result in occasional non-thunderstorm
wind impacts, especially across exposed coastal areas and higher
elevations. Lightning risk will remain limited, although a few
thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Tuesday. Overall, impacts
are expected to be localized rather than widespread.


&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 153 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

An induced surface trough northeast of the region along with a high
pressure system well north of the region will maintain a breezy flow
from the northeast, around 15 knots on Thursday. Passing showers
will continue to move along the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico in the morning, followed by afternoon convection along the
interior and western Puerto Rico. As the trough moves just north of
the region, the winds will shift from the southeast by Friday and
the weekend. Aloft, a short wave trough arrives on Friday, which
usually will be favorable for strong thunderstorm development.
However, it looks like that upper level clouds will move from the
southwest as well. If the day stays cloudy, then it will shut down
the diurnal heating mechanism, preventing heavy rain from
developing. Since this is an evolving scenario, the confidence is
low to medium at this time. Similar conditions will prevail on
Saturday, with the influence of the upper level trough and high
clouds moving from the southwest. By Sunday and Monday, there
could 153be breaks in the cloud layer, which should allow for
more warming and thunderstorms in the afternoon for western Puerto
Rico. For these days, the risk of flooding will be elevated, with
urban and small stream flooding likely.

By the end of the period, temperatures are expected to warm up too,
so highs could climb to the low 90s for most coastal areas in Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Trade wind SHRA will mv acrs most terminals thru 30/13–14Z,
bringing brief MVFR conds, mainly at TJSJ/TIST, while VCSH at
TISX/TJPS. Aft 30/17Z, SHRA/isol TSRA will dvlp over land,
affecting SW PR (TJPS) with brief MVFR/IFR conds. Aft 30/22Z, SHRA
redevelop ovr windward terminals. NE winds 8–12 kt with occnl
gusts at USVI terminals, incr after sunrise to 16–20 kt with
gusts up to 26–30 kt, higher near SHRA/TSRA, causing ocnl turb and
brief ops impacts.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

A surface trough north of the region will maintain moderate to
locally fresh northeasterly winds across the local waters today,
promoting choppy seas. An approaching frontal boundary from the
western Atlantic will interact with available moisture, leading to
increasing shower activity, particularly from late Monday into
Tuesday. A long-period northerly swell combined with strengthening
winds will result in deteriorating marine conditions beginning late
Monday night and continuing through much of the Spring Break week.
Hazardous seas are expected, with conditions becoming dangerous for
small craft operators.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today, while a
low risk will persist along south-facing beaches.

Conditions are expected to worsen from this evening through at least
Friday due to the arrival of a long-period northerly swell combined
with breezy to windy trade winds. This combination is likely to
create life-threatening rip currents and dangerous high-surf
conditions along the north-facing exposed coastlines.

Beachgoers should exercise caution and remain aware of changing
marine conditions. Always swim near a lifeguard and follow local
safety guidance.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

* Hazardous beach conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Life-threatening rip currents and
dangerous surf are expected along north- and east-facing
beaches.

* Passing showers overnight and in the morning, with afternoon
showers and isolated thunderstorms over western to southwestern
Puerto Rico. Localized flooding is possible; lower risk across
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly in the afternoon,
producing lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist, especially in
coastal and exposed areas, supporting fast-moving showers.

* These conditions may affect outdoor and holiday activities. Plan
accordingly and stay weather-aware.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

Overnight, breezy conditions persisted across the region, with
winds easing slightly from daytime peaks but still ranging around
10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts across the most exposed northern
and eastern areas of Puerto Rico and across the U.S. Virgin
Islands. These winds supported the continued movement of passing
showers inland and, at times, across the entire islands. Some of
these showers produced moderate rainfall, with the highest amounts
observed across northeastern Puerto Rico, including the Sierra de
Luquillo. Additional lighter accumulations were noted across the
interior and southern sections. Temperatures were slightly cooler
than previous nights.

A strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic will
continue to drive breezy conditions and maintain the current trade
wind pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds
will gradually shift from the northeast to the east by Thursday,
and eventually east-southeast by late Thursday night. Moisture
will fluctuate early, with a brief drier period today, then
increase again from midweek onward. By Wednesday into Thursday, a
more humid and less stable pattern is expected as an upper-level
trough moves near the region. This will support periods of
passing showers, along with afternoon development over interior
and western Puerto Rico.

During this ongoing holiday week, periods of showers and breezy
conditions may lead to interruptions in outdoor activities across
the islands. Showers will be more frequent across northeastern
Puerto Rico during the overnight and morning hours, and across the
interior and southwestern areas during the afternoon. While
showers will move quickly, repeated activity may result in
localized flooding in urban areas, roadways, and poor drainage
locations, especially by midweek as moisture increases. A few
thunderstorms are possible today, mainly across interior and
western Puerto Rico during the afternoon. Breezy to locally windy
conditions will persist, especially across exposed coastal areas
and higher elevations, which may affect outdoor comfort. Residents
and visitors should remain aware of changing weather conditions
while planning outdoor and holiday-related activities.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

From Friday into Saturday, an evolving pattern under the influence
of an induced surface trough and a shortwave trough will enhance a
more unstable weather pattern across the islands. At the surface,
the induced surface trough, in combination with a surface high
pressure over the Central Atlantic, will promote a northeasterly
wind flow across the area, rapidly shifting to the east-southeast
early Friday as the surface perturbation moves west of the region.
At the upper levels, a shortwave trough will move across the region,
favoring enhanced instability and thunderstorm development. This
pattern will support a high chance of showers across the area;
however, the forecast will be largely dependent on surface
conditions at the time. According to global model guidance and
relative humidity values, a deep upper-level cloud layer may inhibit
the diurnal heating trigger. If sufficient heating does not develop,
widespread shower activity is not anticipated; however, some well-
developed showers are still expected across the northwestern section
and the San Juan Metropolitan area. On Sunday, global model guidance
from the GFS and ECMWF continues to suggest precipitable water
values up to 1.7 inches, which remains near the 75th percentile for
this time of year, consistent with relative humidity values between
850 and 500 mb.

By Monday onward, the main surface weather pattern will be driven by
a broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, resulting
in a tightening of the pressure gradient and increasing winds. Under
this pattern, global model guidance suggests an increase in low-
level moisture across the Caribbean moving into the local islands.
The GFS indicates precipitable water values up to 1.9 inches, which
remains around the 75th percentile through the rest of the period.
Under this setup, reduced upper-level dynamics will limit upper-
level cloudiness, allowing the diurnal heating process to become
more effective. Under this scenario, afternoon convection is likely
to become more widespread and better organized, particularly across
western and interior Puerto Rico, where local effects will enhance
shower and thunderstorm development. This increase in convective
activity, combined with warm and moist conditions, will elevate the
risk of urban and small stream flooding, especially in areas that
experience repeated rainfall. In addition, temperatures are expected
to trend above normal, with coastal highs reaching the low 90s,
further supporting instability and convective potential each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

SHRA will affect most terminals exposed to the north and across
the islands with MVFR conds (cigs 2–3 kft, vsby 3–5 SM) and brief
IFR (cigs <2 kft, vsby ≤3 SM) possible. TJPS less impacted early
but SHRA/VCTS expected aft 31/17Z, with brief MVFR/IFR conds.
SHRA will redevelop ovr windward terminals aft 31/22Z. NE winds
10–15 kt overnight, incr to 15–20 kt with gusts 25–30 kt aft
sunrise, then decreasing slightly overnight but remaining gusty,
esp near SHRA/TSRA. Brief operational impacts likely due to
reduced cigs/vsby and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

A broad and strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic
will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the region,
supporting moderate to locally strong northeasterly winds. A long-
period northerly swell will spread across the regional waters
today, with additional pulses expected over the next few days. The
combination of these winds and building swell will result in
hazardous marine conditions, with choppy to rough seas across the
local waters and Small Craft Advisories in effect. Periods of
frequent showers, and possibly isolated thunderstorms, will also
move across the waters, locally reducing visibility and producing
brief higher winds and rougher seas. Overall, hazardous marine
conditions are expected to persist through much of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

A high risk of rip currents is in effect this morning along all
north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra,
as well as the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. This risk will expand
to Vieques and other exposed areas tonight as the swell continues
to spread across the region. A low to moderate risk will persist
along the remaining beaches, where rip currents are still
possible.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for these same beaches, with
conditions expected to expand to Culebra and the northern U.S.
Virgin Islands tonight. Dangerous surf will create life-
threatening rip currents and hazardous shoreline conditions,
including strong breaking waves and wave run-up that can sweep
people off rocks or the shoreline.

Hazardous beach conditions are expected to persist through most,
if not all, of the week and into the weekend.

Beachgoers are urged to stay out of the water and use caution
near the shoreline at affected beaches, as conditions can be
dangerous even for those not entering the water.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

* Dangerous rip currents continue along north- and east-facing
beaches. Stay out of the water. Rough surf persists through this
afternoon.

* Hazardous seas will continue for small craft through at least
Friday night and likely into the weekend.

* Showers move across windward areas overnight and in the
morning, then focus over southwestern Puerto Rico in the
afternoon. Brief heavy rain may cause localized flooding, with
lightning and gusty winds possible.

* Winds remain strong, around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts,
especially near showers and in exposed areas.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

A strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic will
maintain breezy trade winds across the region through the rest of
the workweek. Sustained winds will generally range between 15 and
20 mph, with gusts between 25 and 30 mph, and locally higher gusts
possible near showers and across exposed areas. Moisture will
remain near seasonal levels today, supporting passing showers
across windward areas through the morning hours, followed by the
development of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
far southwestern sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon.

A wetter pattern will gradually develop from late tonight onward
as a band of above-normal moisture moves in from the northeast and
spreads across the local islands. Moisture will become deeper and
more established by Thursday night into Friday, resulting in more
frequent passing showers across eastern and northern Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by enhanced afternoon
convection over portions of western Puerto Rico. The lack of a
well-defined trade wind cap, combined with nearby upper-level
troughiness, will favor more efficient shower development,
although thunderstorm activity should remain isolated.

The highest rainfall totals each day will remain localized and
primarily driven by diurnal heating, terrain effects, and low-
level convergence. As winds gradually veer from the northeast to
the east and eventually east-southeast, the area of greatest
activity is expected to shift from the far southwestern portions
of Puerto Rico today toward western and northwestern Puerto Rico
by Friday.

The main concern through the short-term period will be the
increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall and localized
flooding, especially in urban areas, roads, and poor drainage
locations from late Thursday through Friday, when the deepest
moisture is expected. While showers will generally move quickly,
repeated activity over the same areas may lead to rainfall
accumulations of around 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible, particularly across western and northwestern Puerto Rico
by late in the week. The strongest winds are expected late
Thursday into Friday, especially across exposed coastal areas,
higher elevations, and surrounding waters.


&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

For the beginning of the long-term period, a weather pattern
influenced by an induced surface trough and an upper-level shortwave
trough is expected. This combination will lead to increasingly
unstable conditions across the islands. As the disturbance moves
west of the region, its interaction with a high-pressure system over
the Central Atlantic will promote an east-southeasterly wind flow.

The upper-level trough will enhance instability and support
thunderstorm development, resulting in a high probability of
showers. However, a deep upper-level cloud layer may limit daytime
heating, potentially reducing widespread activity. Even so,
localized, well-developed showers are expected, especially across
northwestern areas and the San Juan metro region. By Sunday,
precipitable water values are forecast to reach around 1.7 inches,
near the 75th percentile for this time of year. A limited to
elevated flood risk will persist each afternoon. As a result,
similar conditions are expected on Sunday, as the upper-level trough
continues to influence the region along with periods of enhanced
cloud cover. During this time, a limited to elevated flood risk will
persist each afternoon.

From Monday through Wednesday, the surface pattern will become
dominated by a broad high-pressure system over the Central Atlantic,
resulting in southeasterly winds. During this period, increasing low-
level moisture from the Caribbean will spread across the islands,
with precipitable water values rising to around 1.9 inches and
remaining near the 75th percentile, based on climatological data for
this time of the year. With weaker upper-level dynamics, cloud cover
aloft will be less extensive, allowing for more effective daytime
heating. As a result, afternoon convection is expected to become
more widespread and better organized, particularly across western
and interior Puerto Rico, where local effects will enhance shower
and thunderstorm development. This pattern, combined with warm and
humid conditions, will increase the risk of urban and small stream

flooding.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

SHRA will affect mainly windward terminals overnight into 01/14Z
with periods of MVFR (cigs 2–3 kft, vsby 3–5 SM). TJPS less
impacted early, but SHRA possible aft 01/17Z with brief MVFR
conditions. SHRA redevelop ovr windward terminals aft 01/22Z. NE
winds 10–15 kt overnight, incr to 15–20 kt with gusts 25–30 kt aft
sunrise, remaining breezy and gusty.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the week under a
strong Atlantic high-pressure system. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds and a persistent northerly swell will maintain
choppy to rough seas across regional waters, with conditions
continuing even as winds shift easterly. Frequent trade wind
showers will move across the Atlantic waters and local passages,
with isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible over the Caribbean
waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for northern and
exposed waters through at least Saturday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions will persist across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands through the rest of the workweek and
possibly into the weekend. A long-period northerly swell will
continue to impact exposed coastlines, resulting in a high risk of
rip currents, dangerous surf, beach erosion, and large breaking
waves. The most hazardous conditions are expected along north-
and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and
Vieques, as well as the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A High Surf
Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon, with a high
risk of rip currents continuing beyond that period through at
least Friday night.

Beachgoers are strongly urged to stay out of the water and
exercise caution near the shoreline, as breaking waves and wave
run-up can sweep people off rocks and beaches—even those not
entering the water are at risk. Elsewhere, a low to moderate risk
of rip currents will persist; however, hazardous conditions can
still occur. Swim only near lifeguards and follow local safety
guidance.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
226 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents will continue along north- and
east-facing beaches through the weekend. Dangerous surf will
gradually subside after today, but conditions will remain
hazardous. Stay out of the water at high-risk areas.

* Hazardous seas will persist for small craft through the
weekend. Conditions will remain unfavorable across local waters.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop each afternoon,
becoming more widespread and stronger over the weekend.
Flooding risk will increase, along with lightning and gusty
winds.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue, with stronger
gusts in exposed areas and near showers.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

A strengthening surface high over the western Atlantic will
maintain breezy east-northeasterly flow across the region today,
gradually veering through the period. Overnight and early morning
conditions remained consistent with previous days, with frequent
passing showers moving southwestward across northern and eastern
coastal areas and occasionally spreading inland, confirming the
forecast remains on track. This pattern will continue today,
bringing periods of passing showers during the morning and
overnight, with afternoon convection developing across interior
and southwestern Puerto Rico due to local effects. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible. Tonight, another band of above-normal
moisture will move across the region, increasing shower activity
across northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

From Friday into Saturday, a wetter and more unstable pattern will
develop as winds veer from the east to east-southeast and deeper
moisture spreads across the region. A nearby upper-level trough
and a weak or absent trade wind cap will support more efficient
shower and thunderstorm development. Expect more organized
clusters of showers, followed by enhanced afternoon convection
expanding across the interior and shifting from western to
northwestern Puerto Rico. Thunderstorms will remain mostly
isolated but more frequent than earlier in the period. Winds will
remain moderate to fresh, at times locally strong, helping
showers move quickly while enhancing moisture transport and
convergence. Orographic effects will support additional
development downwind of El Yunque and interior areas, with
activity drifting west-northwest.

The main concerns through the period will be gusty winds,
localized flooding, and thunderstorm hazards. Sustained winds of
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are expected,
especially across exposed coastal areas, higher elevations, and
near showers. From Friday onward, deeper moisture and repeated
activity may lead to ponding of water on roads, urban flooding,
and minor flooding of small streams, particularly across western
and northwestern Puerto Rico. Thunderstorms may produce lightning
and locally strong wind gusts. Temperatures will remain near to
slightly below normal due to cloud cover and cool advection, with
highs in the 80s along the coasts and cooler conditions at higher
elevations.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

A warmer and more humid pattern will support increasing afternoon
convection and a rising flood risk through midweek.

By Sunday onward, the surface pattern will be dominated by high
pressure migrating eastward into the Atlantic, promoting a shift
in low-level winds from easterly to southeasterly, which will
persist through most of the period. A mid- to upper-level
shortwave trough will induce a surface trough northwest of the
region, supporting continued advection and pooling of tropical
moisture into the area. Based on the latest guidance, precipitable
water values are forecast to slightly decrease on Sunday but
remain near to above normal for this time of year, around 1.6 to
1.7 inches. From Monday through Wednesday, as the induced
disturbance drifts northward, increasing low-level moisture from
the Caribbean will spread across the islands, with precipitable
water values rising to around 1.9 to 2.0 inches.

Given this pattern and the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to remain north of the region over the
Atlantic waters. However, scattered passing showers will affect
the waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and windward sections of
Puerto Rico during the overnight and early morning hours, followed
by more widespread and better-organized afternoon convection
across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. Local effects will
enhance shower and thunderstorm development each day. This
pattern, combined with warm and humid conditions, will increase
the risk of urban and small stream flooding, with flood risk
ranging from limited to elevated.

Temperatures are expected to trend warmer at the beginning of the
long-term period, with 925 mb values approaching the 75th
percentile, or about two standard deviations above normal. This
will further support instability and convective potential each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

Conds wl remain similar thru the pd. SHRA wl cont to affect
windward TAF sites ovrnght into 02/14Z, with pd MVFR conds (cigs
020–030, vsby 3–5SM). TJPS less impacted early, but SHRA psbl aft
02/17Z with brief MVFR, followed by aftn TSRA dvlp ovr interior/SW
PR psbl impacting the terminal. SHRA wl redevelop ovr windward
TAF sites aft 02/22Z. NE winds 10–15 kt ovrnght incr to 15–20 kt
g25–30 kt aft sunrise, remaining breezy/gusty thru the pd.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the weekend under
a strong Atlantic high-pressure system. Fresh to locally strong
northeasterly winds combined with a north to northeasterly swell
will maintain hazardous, choppy to rough seas across regional
waters, even as winds gradually veer easterly. Frequent trade wind
showers will move across the Atlantic waters and local passages,
while isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop
over coastal waters, especially from the southwest to northwest of
Puerto Rico, drifting west-northwest with the prevailing flow,
with a slight increase in coverage over the weekend. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic waters and local
passages through Sunday afternoon, with hazardous conditions
likely to persist into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

Life-threatening coastal conditions will persist across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the weekend as a long-
period northerly to northeasterly swell combines with strong
winds to impact local waters. This combination will affect exposed
coastlines, resulting in a High Surf Advisory, a High Risk of Rip
Currents, and beach erosion. The most hazardous conditions are
expected along the northwest, northern, and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as the U.S.
Virgin Islands. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 6
PM AST Thursday, while a High Risk of Rip Currents will persist
through Sunday afternoon.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are strongly urged to stay
out of the water. Avoid walking along rocks or jetties, as large
breaking waves can sweep individuals into the sea without
warning. Always heed the advice of lifeguards and follow posted
beach flags and signs. Access to hazardous beaches may be limited,
and individuals should follow all posted warnings and safety
guidance.

In addition to surf hazards, visitors should remain weather aware.
Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop,
particularly over western Puerto Rico. These storms can produce
dangerous lightning; if you hear thunder, seek shelter immediately
inside a sturdy building.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents will continue at north- and east-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through early next week. While surf will gradually subside,
hazardous coastal conditions will persist. Stay out of the water
at high-risk areas.

* Hazardous seas will persist through early next week, with conditions
remaining unfavorable for small craft across local waters.

* Showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon, becoming
more widespread and stronger through the weekend and into early
next week. Flooding risk will remain elevated, with locally
higher impacts possible, especially across Puerto Rico.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with stronger gusts in exposed
areas and near showers.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

A breezy easterly to east-northeasterly flow will maintain a
pattern of frequent passing showers today through Saturday.
Showers that developed overnight have continued into the morning
across windward areas, with radar estimates indicating around a
quarter to half an inch of rainfall in some locations, with
isolated higher amounts. These showers have been frequent,
developing over local waters and moving inland with the flow, and
this pattern will continue at times through today and tonight,
mainly affecting northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

With no well-defined trade wind cap in place, afternoon
convection will develop each day across interior and western
Puerto Rico, with isolated thunderstorms possible. Increasing
cloud cover at times may limit overall coverage, especially on
Saturday. However, showers and thunderstorms will be capable of
producing periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, which may
lead to ponding of water and minor flooding, particularly where
activity repeats or soils remain saturated. Gusty winds and
lightning will be the main additional hazards. This pattern may
lead to brief but impactful weather changes, especially with
increased outdoor activity through the holiday weekend.

By Sunday, conditions become more favorable for stronger and more
efficient convection. Winds will turn from the east-southeast to
southeast, bringing a warmer and more humid airmass across the
region. This will reduce the typical trade wind shower pattern and
support more active afternoon development across interior and
western Puerto Rico. Where sunshine breaks through, showers and
thunderstorms may produce heavier rainfall and more localized
impacts. As a result, the risk of localized flooding will increase
and become more widespread, especially in areas experiencing
repeated activity or slower-moving cells.

Overall, the main hazards will include localized flooding from
periods of heavy rainfall, especially where showers and
thunderstorms repeat or soils remain saturated, along with gusty
winds and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing lightning
and brief heavy downpours. Flooding risk will remain elevated each
day, expanding in coverage on Sunday.


&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

A warm and humid pattern remains on track across the northeastern
Caribbean through most of the upcoming week, supporting enhanced
afternoon convection and a limited to elevated flooding threat
across the local islands.

At the surface, a strong high-pressure system migrating from the
central to eastern Atlantic will maintain south to southeasterly
winds through mid-week. This flow will transport abundant tropical
moisture from the Caribbean Sea into the region, with precipitable
water (PWAT) values forecast between 1.90 and 2.00 inches
throughout the period. Under this pattern, isolated to scattered
showers are expected across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the morning hours, followed by daily
afternoon convection across central, northern, and northwestern
Puerto Rico. Daytime heating and local effects will further
enhance shower and thunderstorm development. This pattern,
combined with high humidity, will elevate the risk of urban and
small stream flooding, as well as quick river rises.

As the week progresses, a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough
will support the development of a surface trough near Hispaniola,
enhancing moisture pooling across the region. By Wednesday, 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to drop to around -9°C, increasing
instability aloft and supporting stronger thunderstorm
development. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer early in
the period, with 925 mb values rising above climatological normals
from Tuesday onward, further supporting afternoon convective
activity.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

SHRA dvlp ovr local waters and mv inland acrs windward/exposed
TAF sites ovrnght thru 03/14Z, brief MVFR psbl (cigs 020030, vsby
35SM). SHRA may cont at times thru the day, but less frequent aft
sunrise. TJPS less impacted early, SHRA psbl aft 03/17Z, then aftn
SHRA/isol TSRA dvlp ovr interior/SW PR, psbl impacting site with
brief MVFR/IFR and gusty winds. SHRA redevelop ovr windward sites
aft 03/22Z. Winds ENE 10 to 15 kt ovrnght, incr 15 to 20 kt g25 to
30 kt aft sunrise, breezy thru pd.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the weekend and
into next week. A strong Atlantic high will maintain fresh to
locally strong winds, veering from northeasterly to easterly today
and east-southeasterly by the weekend. Combined with lingering
northeasterly swell, seas will remain choppy to rough, especially
across the Atlantic waters and local passages. Trade wind showers
will continue across the waters, with isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible over coastal waters, mainly from
southwest to northwest Puerto Rico, drifting west with the flow.
Coverage may increase slightly over the weekend.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Although the High Surf Advisory has expired and the northeasterly
swell is gradually subsiding, hazardous coastal conditions will
persist across the region. A high risk of rip currents will
continue, and life-threatening conditions are likely, particularly
along northern and eastern exposures through at least early next
week. While large breaking waves may become more isolated, rough
and choppy surf will continue due to persistent winds and residual
swell. Beachgoers and inexperienced swimmers should remain out of
the water. Avoid rocks, jetties, and breakwaters, where waves can
sweep individuals into the sea. Follow lifeguard guidance and
posted safety information.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Hydrologic conditions will become increasingly favorable for
flooding impacts through the weekend, although uncertainty remains
regarding rainfall coverage and persistence. Flooding is not
expected to be widespread; however, an elevated risk of urban and
small stream flooding is anticipated, with isolated flash flooding
possible. Recent rainfall has resulted in saturated soils,
especially across eastern and northern Puerto Rico, which will
allow water to run off quickly and lead to rapid rises in streams
and rivers, including water surges (golpes de agua) in steep
terrain. A shift in the pattern will bring more afternoon activity
toward northwestern Puerto Rico, and the San Juan streamer could
still produce periods of rainfall across the metro area, posing a
localized flooding risk.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions and a fading northeasterly
swell will persist through early next week, leading to hazardous
marine conditions and the formation of life-threatening rip
current along northern and eastern beaches.

* Above-normal moisture and increasing instability will support
periods of heavy rainfall through midweek.

* Elevated flooding risk, especially across windward areas
overnight and interior/western Puerto Rico each afternoon.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will develop by midweek, with
heat indices potentially reaching the low 100s.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026

Fair weather prevailed today across the islands, with passing
showers across the local waters and moving inland across the
windward sections in PR and the USVI occasionally. The easterly
winds were mainly 10 or less, with land-breeze variations,
especially along the leeward sections. Most coastal and urban
sites recorded minimum temperatures in the low or mid-70s, while
mountain sites recorded maximum temperatures in the low 60s.

A surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will
maintain an east to southeast wind flow across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. This will result in breezy to locally windy
conditions, with low-level winds generally between 15 and 20
knots. Under this surface regime, moisture levels will remain near
or above climatological normal (with precipitable water (PWAT)
values ranging from 2.0 to 2.2 inches, near or above the 75th
percentile), supporting the development of trade wind showers.
These showers will primarily affect windward locations each day,
especially during the overnight and early morning hours, from late
tonight into Sunday, and again from Sunday night into early
Monday.

A mid- to upper-level trough will gradually increase instability,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6.0-6.5 °C/km. Combined
with mid-level humidity between 70 and 90 percent, this
environment will support efficient rainfall processes with some
isolated thunderstorms between the afternoon and evening hours. By
Sunday into Monday, this trough is expected to extend into the
upper levels across or near the northeastern Caribbean, further
enhancing atmospheric instability across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

This evolving pattern will favor periods of trade wind showers
during the overnight and morning hours, particularly across
windward areas. When combined with low-level convergence, these
showers could produce locally heavy rainfall and increase the risk
of flooding in these regions. During the afternoon and evening
hours, strong convective development is expected across interior
and western Puerto Rico, with additional impacts possible across
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Overall, this pattern supports an elevated risk of flooding
rainfall in the short term. Beach forecast

Confused seas are creating life-threatening rip currents along
north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
where entering the water is strongly discouraged. While south-
facing beaches have a lower risk, caution is still advised as
conditions can change quickly.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026

A wet and unstable pattern will prevail across the region through
much of the long-term period, as a mid- to upper-level trough
approaches from the west and settles across the northeastern
Caribbean. At the surface, an induced inverted trough near
Hispaniola will maintain a persistent southeasterly wind flow across
the region. This will promote the advection of abundant tropical
moisture into the forecast area, with precipitable water (PWAT)
values increasing to near or above 2.0 inches and moisture deepening
through the entire column. This southeasterly flow will also support
above normal temperatures, with model guidance indicating 925 mb
temperatures increasing to near two standard deviations above
climatological normals by midweek. As a result, warmer-than-normal
conditions are expected at the surface, with heat indices
potentially reaching the low 100s for the first time this year in
some areas. In addition to the heat impacts, the increased low-level
warmth will contribute to greater instability, providing additional
fuel for convective development.

Aloft, the presence of the upper-level trough will further enhance
instability, with low- to mid-level lapse rates becoming modestly
steep for the region. Combined with elevated relative humidity
values through the 850-500 mb layer, this will support the
development of heavy showers and widespread convective development.
Under this pattern, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day, with activity becoming more widespread during
the afternoon hours due to diurnal heating and local effects. The
most active period is anticipated Wednesday through Thursday, when
the combination of peak moisture, anomalous warmth, and upper-level
support will maximize convective coverage. Thunderstorms during this
period will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds. The available heat and instability may
also support stronger thunderstorm development, with the potential
for intense downpours.

As a result, the risk of urban and small stream flooding will remain
elevated, along with the potential for rapid river rises. Saturated
soils and elevated streamflows from previous rainfall will further
exacerbate flooding impacts, particularly across flood-prone and
poor drainage areas.

By Friday onwards, conditions are expected to gradually improve as
the upper-level trough weakens and shifts away from the region.
Although lingering moisture will continue to support isolated to
scattered shower activity, a reduction in overall coverage and
intensity is expected, with a transition toward more typical trade
wind conditions by late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions
possible in SHRA/TSRA. Trade wind showers will impact eastern
terminals overnight, while afternoon convection (04/16-23z) may
affect interior and western Puerto Rico as well as windward
terminals, including TJBQ and TJSJ. Expect calm to light and VRB
winds thru 04/13z, then winds from the east to southeast at 10-16
kt with higher gusts. Mountain obscurations likely during periods
of heavier showers and TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through next
week. A strong high-pressure system in the Atlantic will maintain
fresh to locally strong easterly winds today, veering east-southeast
late this afternoon through Sunday. When combined with a subsiding
northeasterly swell, seas will remain choppy to rough, particularly
across Atlantic waters and local passages. Consequently, Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic offshore and coastal
waters, including the Anegada and Mona Passages through Sunday
afternoon. While trade wind showers continue across the region,
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
hours over coastal waters, especially near western and northwestern
Puerto Rico. Coverage may increase slightly over the weekend as an
upper-level trough arrives, interacting with abundant tropical
moisture.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026

Beaches across northern and eastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands will remain hazardous for
beachgoers throughout the weekend and into early next week. A
subsiding northeasterly swell continues to spread across Atlantic
waters and passages, with breezy to locally windy conditions along
the coasts. Given these conditions, a High Rip Current Risk remains
in effect for northern and eastern beaches of the islands through
Sunday afternoon. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are strongly
urged to avoid entering the water or walking on rocks and jetties,
as life-threatening rip currents are highly likely. Always heed the
advice of lifeguards and pay close attention to beach patrol flags
and signs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026

Hydrologic conditions will become increasingly favorable for
flooding impacts through much of the forecast period. Elevated
moisture (PWAT ≥2.0 inches), increasing instability, and efficient
warm-rain processes will support periods of heavy rainfall.

Flooding is not expected to be widespread; however, there is an
elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding, especially in
areas experiencing repeated or slow-moving showers. The highest
risk will occur overnight across windward areas and during the
afternoon across interior and western Puerto Rico.

Recent rainfall has resulted in saturated soils across portions
of eastern and northern Puerto Rico, increasing runoff efficiency
and the likelihood of rapid rises in streams and rivers,
particularly in steep terrain.

The flooding risk is expected to increase from this afternoon
through midweek, with the potential for isolated flash flooding,
especially during the peak period from Wednesday through Thursday.

Conditions should gradually improve late in the week as moisture
decreases and instability weakens.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
301 AM AST Sun Apr 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM AST Sun Apr 5 2026

* An unsettled and moist weather pattern will persist across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least
midweek, supporting an elevated to locally significant risk of
flooding each afternoon and evening.

* Thunderstorms are expected to develop daily, producing gusty
winds and frequent lightning.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue, enhancing
moisture transport across the region.

* Additionally, life-threatening rip currents will persist along
the north- and east-facing beaches of the archipelagos of PR
and the USVI.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will develop by midweek, with
heat indices potentially reaching the low 100s.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Apr 5 2026

Fair weather prevailed today across the islands, with passing
showers over the local waters and moving inland across the
windward sections, especially across southeast PR and the USVI.
The east-southeasterly winds were mainly at 10 mph or less, with
land-breeze variations, especially along the leeward sections.
Most coastal and urban sites recorded minimum temperatures in the
low or mid-70s, while mountain sites recorded minimum temperatures
in the low 60s.

A surface high-pressure system building across the western to
central Atlantic will maintain an east-to-east-southeast wind flow
across the islands, resulting in breezy to locally windy
conditions. Embedded within this flow, patches of moisture will
continue to move across the region, promoting passing trade wind
showers across windward sectors of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands during the overnight and early morning hours. By late
morning into the afternoon, diurnal heating, local sea breeze
convergence, and orographic effects will favor the development of
convection across the interior and western portions of Puerto
Rico, with activity potentially spreading into surrounding coastal
and urban areas.

A mid- to upper-level trough will enhance atmospheric instability
across the region, while model guidance indicates near- to above-
normal precipitable water values. This combination will support an
active convective pattern each day. As a result, a limited to
elevated risk of flooding rains will persist, particularly during
the afternoon and evening hours across interior, western, and
eastern Puerto Rico, as well as portions of the northern U.S.
Virgin Islands. Although periods of fair weather with partly sunny
skies are expected at times, the prevailing breezy pattern and
sustained moisture advection will maintain favorable conditions
for shower and thunderstorm development. Isolated thunderstorms
may produce frequent lightning and locally gusty winds.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Apr 5 2026

The current forecast remains on track, with a period of wet and
unstable weather across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
This pattern is driven by a mid-to-upper-level trough approaches
from the west and settles over the northeastern Caribbean. At the
surface, an induced inverted trough near Hispaniola will maintain a
persistent southeasterly wind flow, pulling deep tropical moisture
into the region. Precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to
reach 2.00 to 2.20 inches by Wednesday, well above climatological
normals.

Combined with above-normal temperatures at the 925 mb level, this
setup could drive heat indices into the low 100s for the first time
this year, a trend that may persist through the weekend.
Furthermore, cooler mid-level temperatures ranging from -8°C to -9°C
will likely enhance convective instability, leading to intense
thunderstorms and frequent lightning.

Daily widespread rainfall and thunderstorms are anticipated,
particularly during the afternoon hours across central, northern,
and northwestern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan metro area.
This activity will be enhanced by diurnal heating and local effects.
The most active period is expected on Wednesday and Thursday,
bringing a high risk of: heavy rainfall, gusty winds, frequent
lightning, rapid river rises, potential landslides and urban and
small stream flooding, especially in areas with saturated soil. In
contrast, the U.S. Virgin Islands will likely experience only
occasional passing showers with minor impacts during this timeframe.

Conditions are expected to improve by Friday as the trough weakens
and departs the area. While lingering moisture may trigger isolated
or scattered showers, the overall intensity and coverage will
diminish. From Saturday onwards, the region will transition back to
a more stable weather pattern, characterized by passing trade wind
showers and typical afternoon convection over central and western
Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conds will prevail, but MVFR/brief IFR may occur due to
passing SHRA/+SHRA/TSRA. Eastern terminals like TJSJ/TIST/TISX
will experience trade wind SHRA, especially in the morning and
evening. Afternoon convection will mainly affect interior and
W terminals, such as TJBQ. Winds will be calm-light/VAR until
5/13Z, then shift to ESE at 10-20 kt, with higher gusts near
convection. Be aware of mountain obscuration, reduced visibility
in heavy rain, and isolated lightning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Apr 5 2026

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through early
this week. A strong high-pressure system over the Atlantic will
maintain moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds today, and this
pattern will persist through most of the period. When combined with
a fading northeasterly swell, seas will remain choppy to rough,
particularly across Atlantic waters and local passages. While trade
wind showers continue across the region, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected, especially during the afternoon hours
over coastal waters, particularly near western and northwestern
Puerto Rico. Coverage may increase slightly throughout the week as a
series of nearby troughs interact with abundant tropical moisture.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Apr 5 2026

A high risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are
likely in the surf zone) continues for the northern and eastern
coastlines of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI, though
conditions have begun to gradually subside. Breaking waves can still
reach to around 7 feet, particularly along the northern coastline
of Puerto Rico. This is due to a slowly fading northeasterly
swell and breezy to locally windy conditions.

Although hazards will continue to gradually diminish, a high rip
current risk will persist for most of these areas through at least
Monday. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are strongly urged to
stay out of the water. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected
to develop across some areas by Tuesday, with conditions becoming
more hazardous again by midweek through the end of the workweek as
another swell impacts the northern shoreline.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers should avoid entering the
water, especially near rocks or jetties, as life-threatening rip
currents remain possible. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach
patrol flags, and posted signs. Access to hazardous beaches may be
limited, and individuals should follow all posted warnings and
safety guidance.

Visitors should also remain mindful of the weather in addition to
surf hazards. Passing showers and isolated thunderstorms may still
develop, particularly during the afternoon hours, producing locally
gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. If thunder is heard, seek
shelter indoors immediately.

For additional information and location-specific rip current
details, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Apr 5 2026

An elevated risk of flooding will persist across the region
through at least midweek due to a combination of abundant
moisture, atmospheric instability, and recurrent convection. Urban
flooding, small-stream flooding, and rapid river rises are
possible each afternoon and evening, particularly across interior
and western Puerto Rico, as well as in urban and poorly drained
areas. The highest risk is expected during the midweek period,
when deeper moisture and stronger instability coincide. Localized
flash flooding and isolated landslides are also possible in areas
with steep terrain and saturated soils. Residents and visitors are
urged to remain alert to changing weather conditions and to avoid
flooded roadways.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
310 AM AST Mon Apr 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM AST Mon Apr 6 2026

* Flooding risk increases this week, highest through midweek.
Afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms may produce
urban and small stream flooding, with isolated flash flooding
possible across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

* Life-threatening rip currents continue through this evening.
High risk along north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and St. Croix. Risk lowers on Tuesday, then increases
again to high by Wednesday afternoon onward.

* Hazardous marine conditions continue for small craft. Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for Atlantic offshore waters
and the Anegada Passage through at least this afternoon.
Elsewhere, mariners should exercise caution.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist. Winds will
enhance shower activity and create hazardous marine and coastal
conditions.

* Above-normal heat index values return Tuesday through Thursday.
Elevated heat indices will increase the risk of heat- related
impacts, especially for sensitive individuals outdoors without
adequate hydration or cooling.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Mon Apr 6 2026

Under an east-southeast wind flow, showers moved inland across
the windward areas of south and east PR, Vieques, Culebra, and the
US Virgin Islands, producing ponding in poorly drained areas.
However, heavy rain impacted the island of Vieques, where rainfall
accumulations ranged from 1 to 2 inches, according to Radar
estimates. Rain activity moved further inland across portions of
the eastern interior and northern PR during early morning.
Additionally, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was noted between
the coastal sites of northeast PR, Vieques, and Culebra, and over
the Atlantic Offshore waters. Winds across leeward locations were
calm to light and variable, while across the windward sites ranged
between 5 and 15 mph out from the east-southeast.

A strong surface high pressure extending from the western to
central Atlantic will promote breezy to windy east-southeast winds
across the northeast Caribbean through the short-term period, as
925 mb climatology suggests values will range near to above
normal. Additionally, a series of short-wave troughs at mid to
upper-level and a jet streak will promote a somewhat unstable
atmosphere today. These features, combined with above-normal Total
Precipitable Water, local and/or orographic effects, and sea
breeze variations, will likely result in showers and thunderstorms
as early as around noon and are more likely by the afternoon.
Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms will impact
the US Virgin Islands and the southeast or the eastern third of PR
from late this afternoon into the evening hours. Under this
weather pattern, we have forecast a limited to elevated risk of
flooding for portions of the islands during this period. Another
threat associated with this pattern is lightning and thunderstorm
winds.

The rest of the short term will remain unstable and wet as model
vs local climatology suggest, above normal moisture content, with
relatively steep lapse rates at mid and low levels, 250 mb heights
suggesting the presence of short wave troughs or an amplifying
trough, and cooler-than-normal temperatures at 500 mb, which are
favorable conditions for organized convection across the region.
Additionally, the winds will remain above normal through the short
term, and the 925 mb temperatures are expected to show a warmer-
than-normal trend, according to model guidance. Although we expect
periods with little or no rain, rounds of moderate to locally
heavy rain will impact portions of the islands each day,
especially across the USVI and PR's windward locations overnight
and in the morning, and across the western and northern portions
of PR in the afternoon.

Under the aforementioned weather pattern, the weather threats for
Tuesday and Wednesday are warm to locally hot heat index during
the afternoon, a limited to elevated risk of flooding rain across
portions of PR and the USVI, breezy to locally windy conditions,
moderate to high risk of life-threatening rip currents, and
dangerous lightning near thunderstorm activity.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Mon Apr 6 2026

A gradual transition toward a slightly more stable pattern is now
expected to begin earlier than indicated in previous model cycles,
particularly starting Thursday. Mid-level moisture is forecast to
decrease, with 700–500 mb relative humidity values dropping closer
to near-normal levels. While the overall pattern will remain
somewhat moist, this trend suggests a modest reduction in the depth
of available moisture compared to earlier in the week.

Despite this drying trend, a generally unsettled pattern will
persist. Residual troughing aloft and lingering moisture will
continue to support periods of cloudiness and shower activity,
especially during the afternoon hours due to diurnal heating and
local effects. However, coverage and intensity of convection should
be somewhat lower than in previous days. Winds will remain from the
east-southeast, continuing to advect moisture into the region,
although not as efficiently as earlier in the week. Saturated soils
and elevated streamflows from rainfall earlier in the week will
continue to support an elevated flooding risk, although more
localized in nature, particularly across interior and western Puerto
Rico during the afternoon hours.

By Friday into Saturday, conditions are expected to become
relatively more stable, with mid-level drying limiting vertical
development of convection. This should result in more isolated to
scattered shower activity, primarily over western and interior
Puerto Rico during the afternoon, with more limited impacts
elsewhere.

By the end of the forecast period and beyond, model guidance
suggests a return to a wetter and more unstable pattern as another
deep-layered trough approaches the region and combines with well-
above-normal moisture. However, this portion of the forecast remains
in the longer range and carries higher uncertainty. Stay tuned for
further updates as confidence improves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conds are expected at local terminals, but MVFR/brief IFR may
occur due to passing rain SHRA/TSRA. Eastern terminals like TJSJ,
TIST, and TISX will experience SHRA/+SHRA, especially in the
morning and evening. Afternoon convection will mainly affect
interior, W/N PR, impacting JBQ/JSJ. Winds will be from the ESE at
5-12 kt thru 06/13Z, then at 10-20 kt, with higher gusts near
convection and due to sea breeze. Expect mountain obscuration,
reduced visibility in heavy rain, and isolated lightning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Mon Apr 6 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through at least tonight as
a strong high-pressure system over the Atlantic maintains moderate
to fresh southeasterly winds. Therefore, expect confused seas
particularly across Atlantic waters and local passages throughout the
day. Conditions are expected to improve starting early Tuesday
morning, with seas subsiding to around 5 feet in the Atlantic and up
to 4 feet in the Caribbean. While trade wind showers continue to
drift across the region, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely this afternoon, especially over coastal waters near western,
northern, and northwestern Puerto Rico. Expect shower and
thunderstorm coverage to increase slightly later this week as a
series of troughs interacts with deep tropical moisture.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Mon Apr 6 2026

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect through this afternoon
for the northern and eastern coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and
St Croix. Life-threatening conditions are present, with breaking
waves around 6 feet along northern shorelines due to a fading
northeasterly swell and breezy conditions. While conditions will
gradually improve this evening through Tuesday, lowering the risk
to moderate, another arriving swell will cause conditions to
deteriorate again later this week. Beachgoers, especially
inexperienced swimmers, are strongly urged to stay out of the
water, avoid areas near rocks or jetties, and follow all posted
warnings and lifeguard instructions.

Additionally, passing showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms
may produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall, particularly along
the northern and western coast of Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
425 AM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 416 AM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

* Flooding risk increases this week, highest through midweek.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
will increase the risk of urban and small-stream flooding, with
isolated flash flooding possible across Puerto Rico.

* Dangerous rip currents expected through at least Wednesday,
increasing late week. Breezy conditions and choppy seas will
create life- threatening rip currents across most beaches. From
Thursday onward, northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands will see a higher risk due to incoming
northerly swell.

* Hazardous marine conditions for small craft continue. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for Atlantic offshore waters
and the Anegada Passage through at least this afternoon.
Elsewhere, small craft should exercise caution.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions persist through Saturday.
Winds will enhance shower activity and contribute to hazardous
marine and coastal conditions.

* Above-normal heat indices return through Sunday. Elevated heat
index values will increase the risk of heat-related impacts,
especially for individuals outdoors without adequate hydration
or cooling.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 416 AM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

Under a southeast wind flow, showers moved inland across the
windward areas of south and east PR, Vieques, Culebra, and the US
Virgin Islands, producing ponding in poorly drained areas.
However, heavy rain impacted the eastern municipalities,
especially the Naguabo region along the Rio Blanco, causing
flooding at the Intersection of PR-191 and PR-31, near the highway
exit, where emergency managers closed the road due to
impassibility. Rain activity moved further inland across portions
of the southern interior near Adjuntas and northeastern PR early
this morning. St Croix also observed descent periods of moderate
to locally heavy rain during this activity, resulting in ponding
in poorly drained areas. Low temperatures ranged from the mid- to
low-70s along the coast to the mid- to upper-60s in the mountains.


Under southeast wind flow and above-normal moisture content,
which will last through the next few days, we expect the
continuation of the wet, unstable weather pattern across PR and
the USVI. Model guidance still suggests a steep lapse rate from
850 to 500 mb, as well as plenty of atmospheric moisture, which,
combined with the excessive heating that 925 mb temperatures are
suggesting, we can expect another round of strong afternoon
convection today and each day during the short-term period. Under
this weather pattern, we have forecast a limited to elevated risk
of flooding for portions of the islands during this period.
Additionally, the 925 mb winds are near or above normal, which
will continue to pool plenty of moisture over the region,
enhancing the showery weather from time to time. Another threat
associated with this pattern is lightning and thunderstorm winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday seem the wettest and most unstable days of
the forecast, becoming less active (at least according to model
guidance) on Thursday. However, we cannot rule out strong
thunderstorms, enhanced by the increasing warming period during
the afternoon across portions of the region. Although we expect
periods with little or no rain, rounds of moderate to locally
heavy rain will impact portions of the islands each day,
especially across the USVI and PR's windward locations overnight
and in the morning, and across the western and northern portions
of PR in the afternoon.

According to the weather pattern described, the threats for
Tuesday and Thursday include: a warm to locally hot heat index
in the afternoons, a limited to elevated risk of flooding rain in
parts of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy to
locally windy conditions, a moderate to high risk of life-
threatening rip currents, and dangerous lightning associated with
thunderstorms. Please take appropriate precautions during this
time.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 416 AM AST Tue Apr 7 2026


Conditions will become relatively stable through the long term
period. Expect isolated to scattered showers, mainly during the
afternoon hours due to daytime heating. Activity will be focused
across western and interior Puerto Rico, with minimal impacts
elsewhere. Overall rainfall coverage and intensity should be lower
than previous days. Winds will remain from the east-southeast,
continuing to bring typical pockets of moisture into the region,
from time to time. Model guidance continues to suggests the gradual
return to a wetter and more unstable pattern. An approaching deep-
layered trough combined with above-normal moisture could lead to
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the region,
particularly from Monday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 416 AM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conds are expected at local terminals, but MVFR and brief IFR
may occur due to passing rain SHRA/TSRA. Eastern/southern
terminals like TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJPS will experience SHRA embedded
in the wind flow, especially in the morning and evening. Afternoon
convection will mainly affect western/northern terminals, such as
TJBQ/JSJ. Winds will be from the SE at 5 to 15 kt thru 7/13Z,
then at 10 to 20 knots, with higher gusts near convection and sea
breeze. Expect mnt obsc, reduced visibility in +SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through at least late this
afternoon as a strong high-pressure system over the Atlantic
maintains moderate to fresh southeasterly winds. Therefore, expect
confused seas, particularly across Atlantic waters and local
passages through at least this evening. Conditions are expected to
gradually improve tonight, with seas subsiding to around 5 feet in
the Atlantic and up to 4 feet in the Caribbean. While trade wind
showers continue to move across the region, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely each afternoon, especially over coastal
waters near western, northern, and northwestern Puerto Rico. Shower
and thunderstorm coverage may increase later this week due to a
series of troughs approaching the region.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 416 AM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

Although moderate rip current risk will persist for the northern
exposed beaches, life-threatening rip currents are still possible.
Conditions should deteriorate by the end of the week due to a series
of swells arriving and spreading across local Atlantic waters and
passages. Residents and visitors are encouraged to check the latest
beach conditions before heading to the beach at weather.gov/sju and
https://www.weather.gov/beach/forecast?site=sju&action=.

In addition to the life-threatening rip currents, beachgoers
visiting beaches over western and northwestern Puerto Rico in the
afternoons should remain weather alert due to the development of
isolated thunderstorms. Hazards include gusty winds, reduced
visibility due to heavy rainfall, and lightning. Seek shelter inside
a building whenever you hear lightning.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
327 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

* Although somewhat stable conditions will prevail today across PR
and the USVI, some passing showers will move across the windward
and the USVI at times, followed by limited afternoon convection,
which will promote a limited risk of flooding across PR's
northwest quadrant this afternoon.

* Afternoon convection affecting PR's western locations will
result in a limited to elevated risk of flooding each day.

* We have a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along
most beaches in PR and the USVI today, with the risk becoming
high along the north- and east-facing beaches of PR from
Thursday onward.

* Coastal sites in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands can
expect breezy winds each day.

* Near to above-normal heat indices will prevail through at least
Thursday, especially at coastal and urban sites, where elevated
heat indices will increase the risk of heat-related impacts,
especially for individuals outdoors without adequate hydration
or cooling.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

Calm weather conditions prevailed tonight under a southeast wind
flow. Some showers moved inland across the south and east coasts
of PR, brushing the northern US Virgin Islands, but without
leaving significant rainfall. Most of the islands were under
mostly clear skies, allowing radiational cooling overnight, so
minimum temperatures dropped into the mid and low 70s along
coastal sites and into the low and mid 60s along mountain sites.

A somewhat stable atmosphere will build over the Northeast
Caribbean as a weak mid- to upper-level ridge finally sets aloft.
Meanwhile, the surface high pressure over the central Atlantic
will hold an approaching frontal boundary off to the northwest of
the region, maintaining a southeast wind flow that will turn
breezy at times, especially along the coastline of PR and the
USVI. Model guidance continues to indicate the potential to
observe above-normal maximum temperatures each afternoon,
resulting in warmer to locally hot indices, especially at urban
and coastal sites.

Under the aforementioned weather pattern, we can expect
occasional showers to be advected across the windward areas of PR
and the USVI, followed by better afternoon convection across the
interior and western portions of PR. Keep in mind that this
activity will maintain a limited to elevated risk of flooding
across these locations each day.


&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

Conditions will remain near seasonal values for this time of year on
Saturday. Periods of passing showers are expected during the morning
hours across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
followed by afternoon convection over western Puerto Rico. At this
time, limited ponding of water is expected across western Puerto
Rico on Saturday.

Beginning Sunday, conditions will gradually become more unstable as
an approaching deep-layered trough, combined with above-normal
moisture, supports increasing shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. Model guidance continues to suggest a transition
toward a wetter and more unstable pattern.

At this time, the wettest period is expected from Monday into
Tuesday, when widespread showers and thunderstorms will be more
likely. However, given the extended forecast range, confidence
remains moderate regarding the magnitude of the potential flooding
and lightning threats.

By midweek, conditions should gradually return to near-normal for
this time of year, although lingering moisture may continue to
support scattered shower activity across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Winds will continue from the
southeast at 5 to 10 knots through 08/13z. After that, we expect
winds between 10 and 20 kt with sea breeze variations. Some
SHRA/+SHRA will move across the windward terminals (IST/ISX/JPS),
then between 08/15-23z SHRA/+SHRA, and some isolated TSRA will
form near JBQ, and possibly near JSJ. Winds will turn calm to
light and VRB aft 08/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

Moderate to locally fresh southeasterly trades will continue through
at least tonight. Thereafter, a broad surface high pressure
extending from the Central Atlantic will promote moderate trades
across the regional waters through the weekend. A 2 feet long period
northeasterly swell will spread across the local waters from late
today through Thursday, and will be followed by a 4 feet northwest
to north swell from Friday onward. These swells will keep seas
around 4 to 6 feet in general, and small craft should mainly
exercise caution across the Atlantic waters and local passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail across most local
beaches. However, a small, but long period northeasterly swell will
arrive late today and linger through Thursday. This could increase
the risk of life-threatening rip currents across the northern and
eastern beaches of the islands. Another swell, from the north to
northwest is expected to spread across the Atlantic waters and
passages from Friday onward, keeping an elevated threat for life-
threatening rip currents through the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
450 AM AST Thu Apr 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 450 AM AST Thu Apr 9 2026

* A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the northern coast
of Puerto Rico and Culebra today and possibly through the
weekend due to pulses of northerly swells.

* Small craft should exercise caution over mainly the offshore and
nearshore Atlantic Waters, and the Mona Passage, due to seas of
5 to around 6 feet.

* Generally stable weather conditions are forecast, with isolated
showers over windward areas and afternoon convection over mainly
interior to W-NW PR through the rest of the week. An approaching
trough will result in a wetter and more unstable pattern
beginning early next week.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, generally fair weather conditions
are expected through the rest of the week, with isolated
showers from time to time.

* Normal to above-normal temperatures will persist through the
rest of the week, prompting a limited heat risk.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Apr 9 2026

Since midnight, radar estimated rainfall accumulations showed
minimal accumulations over interior, eastern and western sectors
of Puerto Rico, as light showers moved over those areas. Official
and unofficial stations have reported lows in the 70s across
coastal areas, with some reaching 78 to 80 degrees, and in the low
to upper 60s across interior PR. Patchy fog was also detected
over areas of the interior. Current satellite derived precipitable
water (PWAT) values indicate values at 1.65 to 1.80 inches (high
end normal to above normal values) over the islands with higher
values at around 1.90 over the northwestern and and southeastern
waters as moisture continues to be steered towards the islands. As
a broad surface high over the central Atlantic interacts with a
frontal low over the western Atlantic, winds will back during the
period to become more ESE to E. 925 wind speeds are forecast to
continue up to around 15 kts, normal for this time of the year,
however breezy continues are forecast at some lower elevation/coastal
areas. This flow will continue to steer broad moisture fields
towards the islands today and Saturday, and patches of both
moisture and drier air tomorrow, Friday. Vertical available
moisture will decrease as the period continues with 800 to 700 mb
relative humidities staying at normal values and 700 to 500 mb
relative humidities decreasing from above normal today to normal
tomorrow and Saturday. Although some instability at the area (in
part due to the frontal boundary and trough north of the area
along with some trade wind perturbations reaching the area),
subsidence aloft and warming 500 mb temperatures (mid level ridge)
will serve to limit shower development. Galvez- Davison Index
(GDI) values are forecast at up to 20 today and tomorrow and up to
30 on Saturday. Showers will continue to reach windward sectors
each morning and night, with afternoon convection due to diurnal
heating, sea breeze convection, and local effects forecast over
mainly interior to W-NW PR, as well as possibly downwind of the
local islands and El Yunque. Model guidance also suggests
afternoon convection over W-NW PR today, prompting a limited
flooding risk. Friday appears to be the day with least rain
activity. A limited flooding risk is also forecast for Saturday
due to afternoon convection over interior to W-NW PR. Patchy fog
over areas of the interior will continue during the overnight
hours. Low concentrations of Saharan Dust will persist over the
area through the rest of the week. 925 mb temperatures are
forecast to be near to above normal, with highs reaching the upper
80s to around 90 at urban and coastal areas. This pattern
suggests a limited heat risk is possible, particularly today and
tomorrow, Friday.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Apr 9 2026

A transition toward a wetter and more unstable pattern is expected
beginning Sunday as a deep-layered trough approaches the region and
interacts with above-normal moisture. Early in the period,
conditions will still resemble a typical diurnal pattern, with
passing morning showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands followed by afternoon convection over western Puerto
Rico. However, as the trough moves closer and moisture increases,
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to become more
widespread from late Sunday into early next week. The most active
period currently appears to be Monday into Tuesday, when deeper
moisture and cooler temperatures aloft will support more organized
convection. Thereafter, conditions should gradually trend toward
near-normal by mid to late week, although lingering moisture may
continue to support scattered shower activity. Confidence in this
overall pattern is moderate, particularly regarding the timing and
coverage of the wettest period.

The primary hazard will be an increasing risk of flooding,
especially from Monday into Tuesday when more persistent and
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. Periods of heavy
rainfall may result in ponding of water on roadways, urban and small
stream flooding, and isolated flash flooding where repeated activity
develops. Thunderstorms will also pose a risk of frequent lightning
and locally gusty winds. While impacts early in the period should
remain localized, the potential for more widespread and impactful
conditions increases early next week. Given the evolving pattern and
moderate forecast confidence, residents and visitors should continue
to monitor updates as details may change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Apr 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions. Winds will gradually back to become more
ESE to E at up to 10 knots through 09/13z, increasing to 10 to 17
kts after, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.
VCSH/-SHRA over the terminals. Around 09/17-22z SHRA/isolated TSRA
possible near or at JBQ. Winds decreasing to light and VRB after
09/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Apr 9 2026

Light to moderate east to southeasterly winds will prevail
throughout the day. Winds will turn more easterly from late tonight
and through the weekend as a broad surface high pressure builds from
the Central Atlantic. A small, but long period northeasterly swell
will linger across the Atlantic waters today. However, from late
tonight through Friday, a 4 to 5 feet northwest to north swell will
spread across the Atlantic waters and passages, building seas up to
6 feet. Therefore, small craft should continue to exercise caution.
Another pulse of the northerly swell is expected on Sunday. By early
next week, a frontal boundary and a pre-frontal trough will increase
showers and thunderstorms across the regional waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Apr 9 2026

A series of small (2-4 ft), but long period northerly swells will
increase the threat of life-threatening rip currents along the
northern exposed beaches of the islands during the next few days.
Therefore, a High Rip Current Risk was issued for the northern
beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra through at least late Friday
night. By early Sunday, another pulse from the northerly swell is
expected to reach local coastal waters of the islands, and the High
Rip Current Risk could be extended for the same areas through the
weekend. Across the USVI and Vieques, a moderate risk of rip
currents is expected to prevail through the same period.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
457 AM AST Fri Apr 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 AM AST Fri Apr 10 2026

* A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the northern coast of
Puerto Rico and Culebra through the weekend due to a long-period,
northwest to northerly swell.

* Generally stable weather is forecast through Saturday, with
isolated showers over windward areas and afternoon convection over
mainly interior to W-NW PR.

* An approaching mid to upper level trough will result in a wetter
and more unstable pattern with an increased flooding risk as it
reaches the islands late Sunday into the next workweek.

* A limited heat threat will be present today and tomorrow,
mainly in coastal and urban areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 557 AM AST Fri Apr 10 2026

Since midnight, radar estimated rainfall accumulations showed
minimal amounts over eastern PR, Vieques and then northern USVI. The
strongest observed shower/t-storm remained over the western offshore
Atlantic waters. Official and unofficial stations reported minimum
temperatures in the 70s across coastal areas, with some isolated
stations reporting 78 to 80 degrees, and in the 60s across interior
PR.

Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate
a band of moisture that arrived during the overnight hours and
promoted the above mentioned showers, with values up to 1.65 in
(at normal values for this time of the year). A broad surface high
over the central Atlantic interacting with a frontal low over the
western Atlantic, and then another building high over the western
Atlantic to end the short term period will continue to result in
E to ESE steering flow. 925 wind speeds are forecast to continue
up to around 15 kts, normal for this time of the year. Today,
Friday, is forecast to be the driest day in the short term period.
E to ESE steering flow will steer patches of moisture and drier
air towards the area. Satellite imagery already detects the patch
of drier air (PWAT values below 1.5 in) that will move over the
islands later today and is forecast to be over western PR by this
afternoon, serving to limit afternoon convection. Afternoon
showers are still forecast over mainly interior to W-NW PR due to
diurnal heating, local orographic effects and sea breeze
convergence. Showers will also continue to reach windward sectors
of the islands. 500 mb temperatures, 250 mb heights, 700 to 500 mb
relative humidities will be at normal values, promoting stability
and inhibiting shower and t- storm development. Moisture will
continue to be steered towards the islands during the period. PWAT
values will increase to high end normal to above normal values
(above 1.75 in) on Saturday and Sunday while 500 mb temperatures
cool and 250 mb heights decrease.

For tomorrow, Saturday, an enhanced pattern will be present with
a limited flooding risk forecast during the afternoon over W-NW PR
due to convective showers and t-storms. Showers can also develop
downwind of the local islands. Advective showers will also
continue to reach windward sectors of the islands during the
morning and overnight hours. A mid to upper level trough is
forecast to approach the region from the E/NE on Sunday, reaching
the islands late Sunday into Monday. This will make Sunday a
transition day toward a wetter and more unstable pattern forecast
during the long term period. This will result in an increase in
shower frequency over windward sectors during the morning and
enhanced afternoon showers and t-storms, a limited flooding risk
will persist to end the weekend but can be increased to an
enhanced flooding risk. Showers and isolated t- storms can also
reach windward sectors Sunday night and into the long term period.
Galvez- Davison Index (GDI) values are forecast at up to 15
today, up to 30 to 35 on Saturday and up to 40 on Sunday. For
additional details, including rainfall expectations and hydrologic
conditions Sunday onwards, refer to the Hydrologic Outlook
(ESFSJU). Patchy fog over will be present during the overnight
hours over areas of the interior. Satellite and model guidance
also suggest low concentrations of Saharan Dust persisting through
the short term period. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to be
warmer than normal, with highs reaching the upper 80s to around 90
at urban and coastal areas. A limited heat risk will persist,
today and Saturday.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 557 AM AST Fri Apr 10 2026

A wetter and more unstable pattern will develop Monday and persist
through midweek as a deep-layered trough and developing upper-level
low remain northwest of the region, supporting favorable divergence
aloft through at least Tuesday night. Deep moisture will surge into
the area from the east on Monday, with precipitable water values
exceeding climatological maxima before organizing into a moisture
band that lingers over the region Tuesday into Wednesday, then
gradually shifts southwestward into the Caribbean by Thursday. Low-
level winds will veer from E–ENE Monday to ESE by midweek,
supporting a transition from a more typical diurnal pattern early
Monday to increasingly widespread and organized convection Monday
afternoon through at least Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday.
Cooler temperatures aloft through Tuesday night will enhance
instability, followed by gradual warming by Wednesday into Thursday,
leading to a slow decrease in convective intensity, although a moist
column will persist.

The primary concern is an elevated to locally significant flooding
risk, increasing Monday afternoon and peaking Tuesday into
Wednesday. Periods of heavy and repeated rainfall may result in
urban and small stream flooding, isolated flash flooding, and
localized landslides or rapid river rises. Slower storm motion,
particularly on Tuesday, could enhance rainfall totals in affected
areas. Model guidance has been consistent in highlighting this
event, including the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, which indicates
anomalously high rainfall potential building Monday, peaking Tuesday
into Wednesday, and diminishing by Thursday. Although activity
should become less organized late in the period, above-normal
moisture will continue to support scattered showers with localized
impacts. Confidence is moderate to locally high in the overall
pattern, though some uncertainty remains in the exact placement of
the heaviest rainfall.

For additional details, including rainfall expectations and
hydrologic conditions, refer to the Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM AST Fri Apr 10 2026

Mainly VFR conditions. E to ESE, at times, light and variable winds
to up to 11 kts through 10/13Z, then increasing to around 15 kts
with higher gusts and seas breeze variations. VCSH/-SHRA over
eastern terminals through the period. SHRA then near or at JBQ at
10/17-22Z. Winds decreasing again after 10/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 557 AM AST Fri Apr 10 2026

Winds will turn more easterly from today and through the weekend as
a broad surface high pressure builds from the Central Atlantic. A 4
to 5 feet northwest to north swell will spread across the Atlantic
waters and passages, building seas up to 6 feet for the next few
days. Therefore, small craft should continue to exercise caution,
mainly over the Atlantic Waters. Another pulse of the northerly
swell is expected on Sunday. By early next week, a frontal boundary
and a pre- frontal trough will increase showers and thunderstorms
across the regional waters. Increasing winds and seas building up to
7 feet are also expected, and Small Craft Advisories could be issued
for the Atlantic waters during this period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 557 AM AST Fri Apr 10 2026

A 4 to 5 feet long-period, northwest to northerly swell will
gradually spread across the Atlantic waters and passages today. This
will keep an elevated threat of life-threatening rip currents along
the Atlantic beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, where a High Rip
Current Risk remains in effect through the weekend. By early
Sunday, another pulse from the northerly swell is expected to
reach the northern exposed coastal waters. Across the USVI,
Vieques, and the south facing beaches of PR, up to a moderate
risk of rip currents is expected to prevail through the same
period.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
459 AM AST Sat Apr 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 459 AM AST Sat Apr 11 2026

* A mid to upper level trough approaching from the northwest will
result in wetter and more unstable conditions with an increased
flooding risk as it reaches the islands late Sunday into the next
workweek. The heaviest activity is forecast for Monday night into
Tuesday. A Flood Watch (FFASJU) will likely be issued later today.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the northern coast of
Puerto Rico and Culebra through early next workweek due to a long-
period NNW swell.

* A limited to elevated flooding risk will be present today, mainly
due to afternoon showers and t-storms over interior to W and NW
PR, with showers also affecting the eastern region today and
tonight.

* Limited heat risk today for coastal and urban areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 459 AM AST Sat Apr 11 2026

Since midnight, radar estimated rainfall accumulations showed
minimal amounts over eastern to southeastern PR, including Vieques.
Official and unofficial stations reported lows in the 70s across
coastal areas, with some stations reaching up to 80 degrees, and in
the 60s across interior PR. Current satellite derived precipitable
water (PWAT) values indicate a band of moisture approaching from the
east with values up to 1.65 in (at normal values for this time of
the year). A broad surface high over the central Atlantic
interacting with a frontal low over the western to central Atlantic
will continue to result in E to ESE steering flow through the
weekend; 925 wind speeds are forecast to continue to around 15 kts
through the weekend. Another building high and a trough near the
area will then result in winds backing to ENE and increasing to
breezy to locally windy on Monday. PWAT values will increase from
high end normal to above normal (PWAT values above 1.75 in) as the
period progresses with model guidance suggesting a peak in PWAT
(above 2 inches) Monday night into the long term period. Drier air
in the mid levels will continue to intrude through Sunday afternoon,
with Sunday night into Monday having deep columnar moisture. ESE
flow will steer moisture and showers towards the region today and
tomorrow Sunday.

For today, a limited (ponding of water in roads and poorly drained
areas with a low chance of urban and small stream flooding) to
elevated (flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams and washes
with a low chance of isolated flash floods) flooding risk will is
forecast. This is mainly due to afternoon convective showers and t-
storms over interior to W and NW PR due to diurnal heating, local
orographic effects and sea breeze convergence, with advective
showers also affecting the eastern region. Afternoon showers can
also develop downwind of the local islands and El Yunque. The ESE
steering flow will also result in a limited heat risk, with 925 mb
temperatures forecast to be warmer than normal, with highs reaching
the upper 80s to around 90 at urban and coastal areas.

For tomorrow, Sunday, an enhanced pattern will be present with
broader limited to elevated flooding risk forecast during the
afternoon over W-NW PR due to convective showers and t-storms.
Showers can also develop downwind of the local islands. Advective
showers will also continue to reach windward sectors of the islands
during the morning and overnight hours. At the same time a mid to
upper level trough (with a surface reflection) is forecast to
approach the region from the NE on Sunday, reaching the local
islands late Sunday into Monday. Conditions will gradually become
more wet and unstable as the short term period progresses. Galvez-
Davison Index (GDI) values are forecast at up to 30 today, up to 40
on Sunday and up to 40 at most of the region on Monday. 500 mb
temperatures will be at normal values today but cool to below normal
values as the period progresses. 250 heights will also continue to
decrease during the period and 850 to 500 relative humidities will
increase to above normal values (possibly even 2 standard deviations
above normal) as the period continues. Similarly other variables and
general model guidance indicate these increasingly unstable
conditions with shower and t-storm frequency increasing. This will
ultimately promote an elevated flooding risk for most of the area
during this period.

The first round of showers related to this trough are expected to
reach the region Sunday night into early Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will then increase in frequency on Monday as the above
mentioned deep moisture and the approaching trough continue to
result in wet and unsettled conditions. Afternoon convection is
forecast to be further enhanced on Monday resulting in showers and t-
storms developing under the above mentioned NE steering flow over
the interior, and moving into south-central, west and southwest
Puerto Rico. The heaviest activity and the highest potential for
flooding is still forecast for Monday night into Tuesday (long term
period) as the trough axis reaches the islands. Model guidance
continues to suggest that this activity will be particularly strong
around St. Thomas, St John, Vieques, Culebra, eastern and northern
Puerto Rico. The likelihood of urban and small stream flooding,
isolated flash flooding, landslides and rapid river rises is
increasing to start the workweek. For additional details, including
rainfall expectations and hydrologic conditions Sunday onwards,
refer to the latest Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU). A Flood Watch
(FFASJU) will also likely be issued later today. Patchy fog over
will be present during the overnight hours over areas of the
interior. Satellite and model guidance also suggest low
concentrations of Saharan Dust over the area and gradually
decreasing during the period. Although Sunday could still see above
normal 925 mb temperatures, these will decrease to normal and
possibly below normal values as the period continues.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 459 AM AST Sat Apr 11 2026

A wetter and unstable pattern will continue from Monday night into
Tuesday as a deep-layered trough and upper-level low remain
northwest of the region, supporting favorable conditions aloft. Deep
tropical moisture will remain in place through midweek, with
precipitable water values at times exceeding climatological maxima.
Although some drying is possible late Wednesday into early Thursday,
moisture is expected to increase again late week, maintaining a very
moist pattern through at least Saturday.

The primary concern is an elevated to locally significant flooding
risk, with the highest impacts expected Monday evening through
Tuesday. Periods of heavy and repeated rainfall may result in urban
and small stream flooding, isolated flash flooding, and localized
landslides. A Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU) is currently in effect to
highlight this potential. Rainfall amounts will be refined in later
forecasts as confidence increases. While it is still too early for
more specific flood headlines, a Flood Watch may be needed if
conditions warrant.

Although activity may become somewhat less organized at times late
week, sufficient moisture and instability will persist to support
continued showers and thunderstorms with localized flooding impacts,
especially over areas that become saturated earlier in the period.
Confidence is moderate overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 AM AST Sat Apr 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions. ESE winds today, bcmg E by around 11/22Z.
Light and variable winds for TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ; winds up to around 10
kts for TIST/TISX through 11/13Z. Winds increasing to around 15 kts
with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, before decreasing again
after 11/23Z. VCSH/-SHRA to continue mainly over eastern/southern
terminals from time to time throughout the period. TSRA in the VCTY
or at JBQ at 11/17-22Z, this could promote brief MVFR conditions
with lower cigs and reduced visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 459 AM AST Sat Apr 11 2026

Moderate trades will prevail through the weekend as a broad surface
high pressure builds from the Central Atlantic. A 4 to 5 feet
northwest to north swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic
waters and passages, building seas up to 6 feet for the next few
days. Therefore, small craft should continue to exercise caution,
mainly across the Atlantic waters. Another pulse of the northerly
swell is expected on Sunday. By early next week, a frontal boundary
and a pre-frontal trough will increase showers and thunderstorms
across the regional waters. Increasing winds and seas building up to
7 feet are also expected, and Small Craft Advisories could be issued
for the Atlantic waters during this period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 459 AM AST Sat Apr 11 2026

Buoy data from Rincon and Arecibo indicated a NNW swell at 4 to 5
feet with wave periods of 11 to 12 seconds. This swell is expected
to linger today across the Atlantic waters and passages, while
another pulse arrives on Sunday. Therefore, a High Rip Current Risk
is in effect for the northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto Rico
and Culebra through at least Monday. Across the USVI and Vieques, a
moderate risk of rip currents is expected to persist over the next
several days, while a low risk will continue along the southern and
more protected beaches of Puerto Rico. More information is available
at weather.gov/beach.sju.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 459 AM AST Sat Apr 11 2026

As a mid to upper level trough approaches from the northwest, the
likelihood of flooding is increasing for late Sunday into the next
workweek. An elevated flooding risk is forecast through at least
midweek. The first round of showers are expected to reach the region
Sunday night into early Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will then
increase in frequency on Monday, but the heaviest activity is
anticipated for Monday night into Tuesday. Although a level of
uncertainty is still present, the days with the highest potential
for flooding are Monday and Tuesday. However, above normal
moisture will persist through late in the week. The likelihood of
urban and small stream flooding, isolated flash flooding,
landslides and rapid river rises is increasing. Residents and
visitors are urged to remain alert to changing weather conditions
and to avoid flooded roadways. A Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU) is
currently in effect to highlight this potential. A Flood Watch
(FFASJU) will also likely be issued later today.

&&